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on july 28, 2024, local time, a naval parade was held in st. petersburg, russia to celebrate the russian navy day. photo/visual china

as the counterattack on russian soil began, russia began its third military expansion since the current conflict.

according to russian media reports, president putin signed a presidential decree on september 16, 2024 to increase the number of military personnel in the russian armed forces to 1.5 million.

on september 17, local time, us media reported that the number of casualties among russian and ukrainian troops had reached about 1 million. the report also pointed out that neither russia nor ukraine has disclosed the specific number of casualties, so it is difficult to estimate the exact number.

the russian-ukrainian conflict has lasted for two and a half years, which has not only brought huge losses to both sides, but also impacted the economic and security structures of european countries. for example, eu countries continue to provide huge military aid to ukraine and adopt strategies such as "ukraine first" in many fields.

many experts interviewed believe that the russia-ukraine conflict will profoundly change the european security structure since world war ii, and change the direction of defense and diplomatic strategies of russia, ukraine and european countries. moreover, due to the huge differences between the two sides on the conditions for peace talks, a solution to the crisis cannot be seen in the short term.

"after world war ii, europe's security structure has undergone dramatic changes." alexander charlie, former first deputy foreign minister of ukraine and president of grant thornton, recently said that after experiencing the cold war, cooperation, common security model and now the "hot war" between russia and ukraine, the current european security architecture is "in jeopardy."

russia expands its military by another 180,000

according tokremlinaccording to the website, russian president vladimir putin signed an order on september 16 "on determining the personnel establishment of the armed forces of the russian federation", requiring that from december 1, 2024, 180,000 military personnel be added to the russian armed forces to 1.5 million.

the presidential decree also requires the russian federal government to allocate the budgetary appropriations needed to implement the order from the federal budget to the russian ministry of defense. the presidential decree will take effect on december 1, 2024.

this is the third time that the russian army has increased the number of soldiers in the armed forces since the outbreak of the russian-ukrainian conflict. previously, putin signed presidential decrees in august 2022 and december 2023 to increase the number of soldiers in the russian armed forces by 137,000 and 170,000, respectively, bringing the total to 1.15 million and 1.32 million.

regarding russia's expansion of its military, russian presidential press secretary peskov said on september 17 that this was caused by the "extremely hostile situation" on russia's western border and "instability" on its eastern border, and that russia "needs to take corresponding measures."

as the ukrainian army crossed the border and entered the russian mainland, the russian army faced the problem of "multi-front warfare". on the one hand, it had to advance the offensive in donetsk oblast in eastern ukraine, and on the other hand, it had to block the ukrainian army in kursk oblast in western russia. therefore, some scholars analyzed that this expansion of the army was considered to be to cope with the long-term conflict and prevent the shortage of troops.

so far, neither russia nor ukraine has released the latest figures of casualties. public data shows that ukraine disclosed in february 2024 that the country had lost 31,000 soldiers. russia announced the official death toll in september 2022, saying that the number of its soldiers killed was close to 6,000.

since the russian-ukrainian conflict fell into a "dynamic stalemate", ukraine has occasionally carried out air strikes or small-scale ground forces to carry out cross-border attacks. on august 6, 2024, ukraine launched a cross-border raid in the early morning, with large-scale ground forces breaking into the russian mainland. in his subsequent speech, putin called it "another large-scale provocation."

so far, russia has implemented a system of anti-terrorist operations in the "three states" along the border - kursk, belgorod and bryansk - and the russian army has launched a counterattack in the region.

in addition to large-scale ground raids, drones have also become a means for the ukrainian army to frequently carry out cross-border attacks.

on september 7, 2024, local time, ukrainian air defense forces intercepted a drone during russia's air strikes on the ukrainian capital of kiev. photo/visual china

according to the russian ministry of defense on september 18, russian air defense forces destroyed as many as 54 ukrainian drones overnight.

according to the russian ministry of health on september 17, a fire caused by a large-scale drone attack by the ukrainian army in the tver region of russia injured 13 people. a video widely circulated on social platforms showed a huge fireball in the area rushing into the night sky, and after several huge explosions, smoke covered a large area of ​​the sky.

ukrainian president volodymyr zelensky praised the results of the strike in an evening video address, but did not mention specific targets. he said: "very important results were achieved on russian territory last night. such actions weaken the enemy... it is encouraging."

putin has repeatedly warnednatothe danger of direct confrontation with russia, including the possibility of nuclear strikes. weapons and mercenaries from nato countries frequently appear on the front lines of the war, and the risk of direct confrontation between nato countries and russia is increasing.

"due to the escalation of the war, the casualties in russia and ukraine from january to september this year increased significantly compared with last year." wu dahui, deputy director of the institute of russian studies at tsinghua university, analyzed that at present, the main russian forces are deployed in the donetsk region of ukraine, and the ukrainian army has occupied several areas in kursk oblast. russia may not be able to completely expel the ukrainian army in a short period of time. moreover, if the restrictions on nato countries' weapons aid to ukraine are lifted, the war may escalate further.

"the war will eventually stop. however, if the interests of all parties are not taken into consideration and both sides refuse to compromise, peace talks will be a long way off," said wu dahui.

financial and military aid from the united states and europe

on august 6, 2024, the eu approved the first payment of 4.2 billion euros to ukraine to support ukraine's financial stability. it is reported that this amount of money is part of the eu's total aid and loans of 50 billion euros to ukraine. the day before, ukraine said it had received $3.9 billion in aid from the united states.

more than two years after the outbreak of the russian-ukrainian conflict, a steady stream of aid funds has flowed from the united states and european countries to ukraine. ukraine seems to have become a "priority", with resources tilted towards ukraine in many areas.

for example, since the russia-ukraine conflict, the eu has suspended tariffs on ukrainian agricultural products, creating a clear price advantage for member states’ agricultural products. in addition, the package of “green agricultural new policies” launched against the backdrop of the european climate crisis has further squeezed the agricultural profit margins of member states.

giving priority to ukraine has harmed the interests of some european countries. for example, on february 1, 2024, during the first eu summit in 2024, thousands of belgian farmers gathered outside the venue, throwing eggs, beer and firecrackers, accusing the eu and its member states of damaging farmers' interests with their agricultural policies. according to belgian police, about 1,300 tractors arrived in brussels that day, causing traffic jams in many places.

on september 14, an article titled "europe faces a painful choice: war or welfare" published by a well-known american media attracted attention.

the article states that after the end of the cold war, european countries drastically cut their military budgets and invested the huge amount of money saved in livelihood projects, which was welcomed by the people. however, the tensions caused by the ukrainian war have caused some european countries to begin to dispute the balance between social welfare and national defense investment.

earlier this year, german finance minister christian lindner said during negotiations on the 2025 budget that he wanted to free up money for the defense budget by freezing social spending. this suggestion was rejected by other parties in the ruling coalition. for example, german economy minister robert habeck said: "i think the idea that we dismantle the welfare state because we need more money for the military is fatal."

zotan senes is an honorary professor at the national university of public service in budapest, hungary, former chief of the general staff of the hungarian armed forces, and a retired general. he believes that the russian-ukrainian conflict has brought multiple crises that affect europe and the world. the conflict has made the eu prioritize its support for ukraine. currently, the eu is using existing tools to help ukraine and provide it with financial and ammunition support.

he said that although the eu has preserved its industrial base during the cold war, it is not enough. according to the relevant defense strategy, 5% to 20% of europe's major weapons are insufficient. however, defense affairs are sovereign affairs of each country and therefore do not fall within the scope of eu legislation. it is reported that the eu has approved a number of laws in the past few years, and the nexteuropean commissiona national defence committee will be formed.

"it can be said that the russia-ukraine conflict has destroyed the eu's strategic construction process. because of the war, the eu's defense and diplomatic strategies have undergone tremendous changes," said zotan senesh.

europe in a “stalemate”

"nato's eastward expansion is a cancer to regional security. russia used to take chances. now it is found that this disease is fatal and the cancer needs to be removed," said sergey karaganov, dean of the school of international economics and foreign affairs at the russian state higher school of economics. "russia insists on the strategy of 'curing the disease' in solving the ukrainian issue. only by curing the disease of nato's eastward expansion can the world restore order."

"i emphasize again that ukraine is not the problem. the de-weaponization and demilitarization of ukraine is a result we want to achieve." he believes that europe must rebuild its security order, and countries in other regions can also help europe rebuild it, which can even be called the "eurasian security order."

alexander charlie, former first deputy foreign minister of ukraine and president of grant thornton, explained that the war between russia and ukraine in the heart of europe today violates all principles and treaties of european security. the current european security architecture is "in jeopardy."

as the russian-ukrainian conflict enters its third year, commentaries published by many international media and think tanks have used the word "deadlock". a research report published by the stockholm center for eastern european studies (sceeus) in february 2024 pointed out that the russian-ukrainian front has fallen into a strategic deadlock, and neither side can win on the battlefield and end the war as they wish.

in june 2024, putin and zelensky listed "peace talks conditions" in their public speeches, but they were far from each other. among them, the conditions listed by the two sides on the territorial issue were sharply opposed and irreconcilable.

"russia and ukraine need to return to a process of building mutual trust." cui hongjian, professor at the institute of regional and global governance of beijing foreign studies university, told southern weekend that in the past european security architecture, the two sides had moved towards each other, which seemed to allow the world to see the possibility of a traditional europe + eurasia, but now this possibility is disappearing. eurasia and the so-called traditional europe are cut off again. after the end of the cold war, the european security architecture that the two sides spent so much time to build has now completely collapsed. at present, some european countries unilaterally believe that russia will only succumb to force and will not actively seek diplomatic solutions, which is also a misunderstanding.

"so what will the future european security architecture be like? with russia or without russia? we are still in an uncertain historical cycle," said cui hongjian.

southern weekend reporter mao shujie

editor: yao yijiang