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【author chen lan】

in recent days, musk and his space operations have once again become a hot topic.

at 6:12 a.m. eastern time on september 12 (18:12 beijing time), american billionaire isaacman and spacex engineer sarah gillis, who were carrying out the "polaris dawn" mission on the spacex perseverance dragon spacecraft, left the cabin for ten minutes in succession, completing the first "civilian spacewalk" in history, once again making history.

live broadcast of the "polaris dawn" mission, when isaacman left the spacecraft (source: spacex)

polaris dawn has set a series of records since its launch on september 10:

the highest point reached by humans in earth orbit (1,408 km). the previous record was set by gemini 11 in 1966 at 1,373 km.

sarah gillis and anna menon become the women who have ever travelled the farthest from earth (1,408 km)

the first "civilian spacewalk" in history

highest spacewalk in earth orbit (738 km)

the lightest extravehicular space suit in history is put into use

many reports quoted foreign media saying that it set the highest record since the apollo program. in fact, it is difficult to call a record within a specific period of time, especially since many people around the world question the apollo moon landing. it is more rigorous to use the term "earth orbit".

the picture taken by the "polaris dawn" dragon spacecraft at an altitude of 1,400 kilometers (source: spacex)

on the day of this historic spacewalk, the astronauts on the dragon spacecraft and three other spacecraft jointly set another new record. two russians and one american on the soyuz ms-26 spacecraft launched in the early morning of beijing time, three chinese on the chinese space station, six americans (including two stranded astronauts on the boeing spacecraft) and three russians on the international space station, plus four americans on the polaris dawn mission, the space population has reached 19 for the first time in history!

it took humans more than 63 years to grow the space population from zero to 19, as shown in the table below:

looking closely at the table above, you may find that the space population record stagnated for 26.5 years between 1995 and 2021. it was the emergence of the chinese space station and the dragon spacecraft that made a breakthrough in the growth of the space population. this also reflects that china and musk have become the main driving force for the development of manned spaceflight in the world.

china's manned space flight is the result of the country's growing national strength in recent decades, and its development path is quite similar to the national strategy of the united states and the soviet union. so, how did musk's spacex emerge as a rising star?

if you pay attention to spacex's growth over the past 20 years, you will find that the main factor for its success is continuous innovation guided by business thinking. as a result of spacex's involvement in manned spaceflight, many traditional things have been broken and replaced by new ideas. let's take stock.

manned dragon spacecraft (photo source: spacex)

the overall design is the biggest innovation of the crew dragon spacecraft. it is the first manned spacecraft to realize a 7-seat reusable large two-cabin design and a push escape-powered landing integrated propulsion system. however, powered landing and full-seat flight have not been realized for the time being due to nasa's caution and lack of demand. in fact, only the push escape that can cover the entire launch process can be considered an innovation of spacex. the large two-cabin and powered landing were the original concepts of the "super soyuz" (also known as dawn) spacecraft planned by the former soviet union, but it ended in failure due to many new technologies, the disintegration of the soviet union, and the depletion of funds. it was finally realized by the manned dragon spacecraft nearly 20 years later.

real shot of the dome-shaped glass observation window of the manned dragon spacecraft in space (source: spacex)

the crew dragon's fairingless launch, non-pressurized cargo hold, laser 3d printed engine, semi-enclosed bulkhead solar array, monolithic dome glass observation window, touch-screen instrument and operation panel, and the use of various new materials are not disruptive innovations. some of them are designs that were used in the early days of the space era but later eliminated. these local innovations or micro-innovations are applied to the dragon spacecraft in a proper way, making it clearly different from other spacecrafts, thus presenting a variety of science fiction colors.

the extravehicular space suit used in this commercial space flight also adheres to musk's consistent business thinking. compared with traditional extravehicular suits, it cancels the portable life support system, greatly simplifies the functions, and adopts a large number of new materials and intelligent technologies, making it the lightest and most fashionable extravehicular space suit ever. for space tourists, the purpose of going out of the cabin is not work but experience. there is no need to stay away from the cabin door, use tools, or spend seven or eight hours. an umbilical cord for oxygen and power supply is more reasonable than an expensive and bulky "life backpack". at this time, subtraction is also innovation.

figure 5 spacex space suit (left is the cabin suit, right is the extravehicular suit) (source: spacex)

it is worth mentioning that the polaris dawn crew also wore this spacesuit during launch, which means that this extravehicular suit is light enough to be used as an indoor suit. next, spacex plans to develop it into a universal spacesuit for both indoor and outdoor use and use it on the international space station crew. this is another breakthrough. in the future, both the crew dragon and the spacex spacesuit will continue to evolve. let's wait and see.

the driving force behind the continuous innovation of spacex's manned space technology is not innovation itself, but business logic, which is the core goals of meeting demand, reducing costs, and improving user experience. technology can only reflect its value if it is applicable. old technologies that have been eliminated may also become the optimal solution under new conditions, such as parallel connection of engines. this is a simple logic, but it is not easy to do. it is necessary to jump out of the box of old thinking and maintain rationality and awe of the laws of nature while being bold and radical. this is why spacex can stand out and continue to stand out from the crowd.

let's go back to the topic of manned space flight. the sea of ​​stars has always been the ultimate and romantic dream of mankind. but in reality, the distance between ordinary people and space is as far as the stars. commercial space flight needs the support of a large enough market to flourish. the dilemma of manned space flight is that commercial applications such as scientific research, military, communication and remote sensing are actually pseudo-demands, because except for medical research that requires human participation, the use of unmanned spacecraft is simpler, safer and cheaper than astronauts in space. the reasons for manned space flight are not sufficient, and pseudo-demands cannot bring real commercial value.

there is only one type of manned space application that cannot be replaced by unmanned spacecraft, and that is space tourism. since the start of space tourism in 2001, more than 20 people have made orbital flights and 44 people have participated in suborbital flights that break through the karman line (100 kilometers). at present, this is still a high-end niche market, but the potential user base is huge, and the reduction in prices will lead to an exponential expansion of the market size. space tourism is the reason for the establishment of commercial manned spaceflight and the core business of the future.

dennis tito became the first space tourist in 2001 (image source: nasa) (image source: nasa)

data shows that from 2000 to 2009, the price of each seat on the soyuz spacecraft was between 20 million and 35 million us dollars, and the number of space tourists was 8. from 2010 to 2019, the russian side raised the price, and the price soared to 85 million us dollars, and the number of tourists dropped to zero. from 2020 to date, due to the addition of the low-priced dragon spacecraft, in less than 5 years, the number of space tourists has reached 14, including 12 on the dragon spacecraft. it can be seen that the price affects the market size.

according to information provided by several market companies, the global scale of the space tourism market in 2023 is about us$800 million, and it is predicted to grow to us$4 billion to us$12 billion from 2030 to 2034 (data vary from company to company). although the scale is still limited, the growth rate is very impressive. in the future, if starship-class reusable space transportation tools mature and the price per seat is reduced by two orders of magnitude to hundreds of thousands of dollars, the market will usher in explosive growth.

space tourism will undoubtedly become the next hot spot in commercial aerospace. this is determined by the underlying business logic.

the united states has taken the lead in the development of the commercial manned spaceflight and space tourism market. many participants are very active and have begun to lay out plans for new-generation manned transportation vehicles and commercial space stations. with this successful commercial spacewalk as a symbol, the pace of commercialization of manned spaceflight in the united states has clearly accelerated.

in addition to spacex's dragon and starship, and boeing's spacecraft, sierra space (formerly sierra nevada corporation)'s dream chaser small space shuttle manned version may become the next commercial manned transportation tool. axiom space, blue origin, nanoracks (in cooperation with voyager and airbus), vast and other companies have announced their commercial space station plans.

rendering of the axiom space station module docked at the international space station (source: axiom)

axiom is the most technologically mature and fastest-progressing of all commercial space stations. it reached an agreement with nasa in 2020 to launch three modules to dock with the international space station. before the international space station is decommissioned and reenters the atmosphere, it will be separated and operated independently. its first module is scheduled to be launched in the second half of 2026.

the future is an era of competition between china and the united states. china's commercial space industry is in a stage of rapid development and is gradually getting better. however, china is almost blank in commercial manned spaceflight, and the gap between china and the united states in space tourism is even greater. in the long run, this is an area that cannot be ignored in any way. we should make some contributions.

in fact, many chinese commercial aerospace companies have not ignored this field. many companies have released concept manned spacecraft or space tourism spacecraft. however, the only one that has actually implemented the project is probably the hybrid company, china aerospace science and technology.

full-scale model of the suborbital tourist cabin of china aerospace science and technology (source: china aerospace science and technology)

the suborbital spacecraft of china science and technology aerospace is scheduled to make its first flight in 2027, and manned space travel will begin in 2028. it is estimated that the single-passenger fee will be 2 million to 3 million rmb. it is launched by a single-stage rocket. the tourist cabin is equipped with 4 panoramic windows and can carry 7 passengers per flight. during the 10-minute flight, passengers will cross the karman line at an altitude of 100 kilometers and experience 3 minutes of weightlessness. finally, the tourist cabin will land safely by parachute.

screenshot of the official website of the space station low-cost cargo system proposal solicitation announcement (source: cms)

the chinese government's space agencies have also begun to take action in recent years. on may 16, 2023, the national manned space engineering office issued an announcement on its official website, soliciting the overall plan of the low-cost cargo transportation system for the space station from the whole society. nine units, including private companies such as ziwei yutong, micro-nano starry sky, interstellar development, and oriental space, submitted 10 plans. in september, the manned space engineering office announced that four units, including the microsatellite innovation institute of the chinese academy of sciences, the fifth and eighth institutes of aerospace science and technology, and the chengdu aircraft design institute of avic, received engineering support and entered the detailed design stage of the plan.

unfortunately, all private companies were wiped out. but this is a good start, and i hope to continue to promote it after summarizing the experience.

as an important part of commercial spaceflight, commercial manned spaceflight has great strategic significance. chinese commercial space companies have already begun to gain strength, and the conditions for entering the manned field are ripe. next, if we can formulate reasonable policies, coordinate government and market resources, and give full play to our institutional, market scale and supply chain advantages, it is not an exaggeration to catch up with or even surpass the united states.

here are some of my suggestions for reference by relevant departments:

first of all, we can fully learn from the successful experience of nasa's international space station commercial transportation project and increase the openness of china's space station. we can not only solicit low-cost spacecraft design plans, but also learn from nasa, directly purchase supply services, and develop low-cost commercial cargo and manned spacecraft. the second phase of the space station can reserve a position for the space tourism expansion module, which will be developed, launched and operated by commercial aerospace companies. in addition, the space station's co-orbital spacecraft can also be opened for commercialization. the space station provides supplies and maintenance for various co-orbital commercial spacecraft. in short, the space station is an ideal incubation platform for the commercialization of manned spaceflight. proper use can not only improve resource utilization, but also effectively promote the development of commercial spaceflight.

the multifunctional node module of the second phase of china's space station (source: cms)

secondly, the national team should increase the transfer of advanced technologies to private enterprises. in the past two or three decades, china's economy and wealth accumulation have been growing rapidly, and investment in aerospace has also risen. the continuous r&d investment of the two major aerospace groups and other state-owned aerospace enterprises has produced many achievements and advanced technologies, some of which have been shelved for various reasons. at the same time, due to insufficient funds and equipment, it is difficult for civilian aerospace companies to carry out long-term and high-investment technology research and development, especially the lack of manned space technology. if an open application system can be established to transfer these technologies free of charge or for a fee, it will become a very important booster for civilian aerospace. spacex has developed a more cost-effective pica-x technology based on the pica thermal tile technology provided by nasa, which is a successful case of such technology transfer.

finally, manned spaceflight is a high-risk field. if there is a casualty accident in commercial manned spaceflight, it will have a fatal blow to the entire industry and the consequences will be serious. so we must prepare for a rainy day. the tianbing test run accident not long ago has exposed our regulatory loopholes. therefore, the most urgent thing at present is to establish an independent, centralized and professional regulatory review system and agency, such as the us faa, to be responsible for the risk assessment and control of space activities. at the same time, use legal means to make a clear definition of the responsibilities of all parties. it is necessary to accelerate the formulation of the space law, and even promulgate a more targeted commercial space law. the corresponding insurance system also needs to be sound and perfect. only in this way can the negative impact of accidents be minimized.

commercial spacewalks have become history. as nasa's influence slowly declines, spacex's voice in manned spaceflight is growing, and other "new forces" aerospace companies are also waiting for opportunities to rise. in the sino-us space race that has already begun, we are fully capable of competing with the united states in areas such as space stations and manned lunar landings. but in commercial manned spaceflight, we have barely started, and we still need to work hard.

the united states regards china as the biggest threat and is trying desperately to suppress and contain china. but we still need to learn from its success. the same goes for musk. he is not a god, but he is not a big liar either.

only by facing him can you surpass him.