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with the end of the first presidential debate between trump and harris, according to a reuters poll on september 12, harris's approval rating was 47% and trump's was 42%. according to the latest poll by the washington post, after the first debate, harris expanded her lead in some swing states, such as wisconsin and michigan.

the main reason why the democratic candidates' support rates in swing states have increased is that harris has adopted more effective policies than biden on economic issues that are of particular concern to rust belt voters, especially harris has won more support from low-educated white middle-class voters. as the 2024 election is about to enter the critical stage, which of the two candidates can win more support from middle-class voters?

who are the middle voters? what do they care about?

william g. mayer, an american political scientist, believes that the middle voter is "someone who can go either way: a voter who is not so firmly committed to one candidate or the other that all persuasion efforts are futile." undoubtedly, in the current context of highly polarized american politics, middle voters are crucial to the elections of candidates from both parties. so who are the middle voters? what issues do they focus on?

according to survey data from the us think tank data for progress, the sources of middle voters have the following characteristics: in terms of gender, the proportion of female middle voters is higher than that of male middle voters, with 60% of female middle voters and 40% of male middle voters. in terms of age, the proportion of middle voters over 45 is higher than that of voters under 45, with 57% of middle voters over 45 and 43% of middle voters under 45. in terms of ethnic composition, the ethnic sources of middle voters show diversity, among which white middle voters have the highest proportion, reaching 62%, followed by hispanic voters, with a proportion of 15%, and then african-american voters, with a proportion of 11%. the proportion of asian middle voters is the lowest, at 7%. in terms of education level, the swing phenomenon of voters without college education is more obvious than that of voters with college education, with the proportions of the two being 67% and 33% respectively.

it can be seen that women, voters over 45, those without a college degree, and white people are the main sources of middle-class voters. in the 2024 election, the reason why wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania in the rust belt became the three key swing states is also closely related to the high proportion of middle-class voters. the source of voters in the above states is mainly white voters without a college degree.

generally speaking, middle voters do not have a clear political ideology and are characterized by political indifference. they prefer candidates who "protect our freedom," "are honest," and "fight for the working class." compared with voters with firm political positions, middle voters may pay more attention to economic issues.

according to a poll conducted by progressive data in mid-august 2024, 37% of swing voters said that "economy, jobs and inflation" are the most important issues they care about when voting. among voters who chose "economy, jobs and inflation" as their primary issue, 53% chose inflation as their most important economic issue. among these voters, the vast majority (64%) said that food and grocery costs are the main reason they worry about inflation, followed by rent or house prices (22%). therefore, for candidates from both parties, if they can win the support of middle-class voters on economic issues, it will undoubtedly help their road to the white house.

harris builds a personal image as a defender of the interests of inflation victims

when biden was still trump's opponent in this year's election, trump had a clear advantage in economic issues, and therefore won more support from middle-class voters. but when trump's opponent became harris, the democratic party learned from biden's lesson and effectively used economic issues to expand the democratic party's advantage among middle-class voters, and then began to lead in several swing states. harris' specific strategies for effectively using economic issues to attract middle-class voters include the following aspects.

on the one hand, the harris campaign has invested a lot of money in various donation activities to portray itself as a defender of people hit hard by rising prices. in august 2024, the harris campaign raised $361 million for its campaign. they also mobilized supporters to participate in community activities, directly contacted middle voters, and launched a coat donation campaign in milwaukee, wisconsin. as of september 8, 2024, harris's support rate in the state was slightly ahead of trump.

on the other hand, in terms of economic policy, harris's economic proposals are more focused, and most of them are aimed at providing government assistance to parents, small business owners and first-time homebuyers. members of harris' campaign team told the us media that the democratic party's economic strategy focuses on economic information and economic proposals to show that the democratic party is actually solving economic problems, rather than being completely liberal as described by the republicans, who only consider expanding immigration without considering solving the unemployment problem of the vast majority of the american people.

overall, harris' campaign strategy on economic issues will help it win more middle-class voters in swing states. it remains to be seen whether this advantage will continue to expand in the future or whether trump will overtake her.

trump builds his image as a national economic revivalist

harris's catch-up in the support rate of middle-class voters has undoubtedly put some pressure on trump. currently, trump's campaign team has also invested a lot of money to focus on winning over middle-class voters. the specific strategy is as follows.

on the one hand, the trump campaign team attaches great importance to white voters without college education. this group of voters is an important part of the middle voters in key swing states and was once an important reason for trump's victory in the 2016 election. but by the 2020 election, trump lost some of this group. at present, the strategy adopted by the trump campaign team is to influence white middle voters through personal finance seminars and concerts, and to portray trump as a national economic revivalist in the exposition of economic policies. in terms of specific economic policies, trump's way of revitalizing the economy is mainly to reduce taxes.

on the other hand, the trump campaign will make winning the support of minority middle voters the main target of future campaigns. although the proportion of african american male middle voters and hispanic male middle voters is less than that of white people in the entire middle voters, their proportion in some constituencies and even some swing states and their potential role cannot be underestimated. for example, hispanic ranchers in rural new mexico and hispanic grape pickers in central california feel ignored by the democratic party and are showing signs of turning to the republican party. although this group still mainly supports the democratic party, the democratic party’s policies on electric vehicles and student loan relief have not resonated with them. for example, in arizona, hispanic catholics (12%) now account for a larger proportion than white evangelicals (10%). in pennsylvania, hispanic evangelicals account for an increasing proportion of voters in key bellwether counties.

in the 2020 election, trump's support among african american male voters and hispanic male voters was higher than in the 2016 election. in the 2020 election, 31% of hispanic men supported trump, an increase of about 7 percentage points from 2016. however, harris' support among african american voters is currently rising, and her support among hispanic voters is 27 percentage points ahead of trump, which undoubtedly puts pressure on trump.

even so, given the current stalemate between harris and trump, harris's increased support among african-american and hispanic voters cannot guarantee her victory in the election. therefore, the tug-of-war between the two candidates will continue for some time.

(tang huiyun, associate researcher, institute of international studies, shanghai academy of social sciences)