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experts: western long-range missiles are unlikely to affect the course of the russia-ukraine conflict

2024-09-15

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the west has all but given ukraine permission to strike deep into russian territory using britain’s storm shadow cruise missiles and the u.s. army tactical missile system (atacms).

according to a report on the russian newspaper novaya gazeta on september 13, the west has almost allowed ukraine to use the british storm shadow cruise missile and the us army tactical missile system (atacms) to strike deep into russia. russian president vladimir putin stressed that these missiles will be operated by nato soldiers, which is a direct participation in the russian-ukrainian conflict.

in order to understand the impact of the use of new weapons on combat operations and russia's possible response measures, novaya gazeta interviewed two experts.

storm shadow is a tough target

ilya kramnik, a researcher at the risk assessment group of the institute of world economy and international relations of the russian academy of sciences, pointed out that the storm shadow missile is not easy to be shot down due to its certain technical characteristics. however, the number of such missiles obtained by the ukrainian army is not enough to seriously affect the progress of combat operations.

"xinwen bao" asked: can you introduce the "storm shadow" missile?

kramnik: in principle, this missile is already in use on the front lines. we have seen the enemy using it to strike targets in the russian new territories and crimea. this is a low-flying, stealth missile, developed on orders from britain and france. the storm shadow is almost identical to the french scap missile in terms of the technology used and performance parameters.

q: what is the range of storm shadow?

a: the standard version of storm shadow has a range of more than 500 kilometers. however, british officials claim that the export version provided to ukraine has a range of only 300 kilometers. so far, no storm shadow missiles have been launched that exceed this range.

q: is it difficult for russian air defense forces to shoot them down?

a: they are difficult targets for the russian air defense system. they are low-flying stealth missiles, and their flight speed is not particularly fast, about 1,000 kilometers per hour, which is about the speed of sound. but because of their stealth characteristics and low flight, it is difficult to intercept them. in addition, it should be added that nato experts will participate in the preparation of the launch of such missiles. nato also shares its military-technical reconnaissance intelligence with ukraine, which is aimed at finding the location of russian air defense forces. this helps plan the flight path of the missile and reduces the chance of its being intercepted. at the same time, the enemy will also use fake targets in the air that simulate missiles, which will make interception more difficult.

q: will "storm shadow"'s strikes deep into russian territory change the course of combat operations?

a: i don't think it will have a serious impact on the nature of combat operations. france and britain may not be willing to use up their missile reserves. even if they do so and provide ukraine with hundreds of missiles, these missiles cannot be launched in a few months. they do not have enough vehicles to achieve this goal. the preparations for such operations are also very troublesome. of course, these missiles will cause some losses when they hit russian territory, but we should not expect a fundamental change in the war.

atacms is an outdated missile system

sergey yermakov, chief analyst at the russian institute for strategic studies, pointed out that the u.s. army tactical missile system (atacms) is an outdated missile system that has been withdrawn from active service in the u.s. military.

q: could you please introduce the technical performance of the atacms missile?

yermakov: there are several versions of this missile. the earliest version has been produced since 1991. the new version has a longer range, up to 300 kilometers. it is this new version that the united states is now providing to ukraine. this missile has begun to be delivered to the ukrainian army this spring.

they are particularly dangerous when equipped with fragmentation warheads, which contain hundreds of small metal pellets and can cause damage to nearby civilian targets when striking military targets.

q: is this missile difficult to shoot down?

a: this is a tactical missile, also known as a semi-ballistic missile. they first accelerate along a ballistic trajectory and then switch to a guided flight state. that is, if they want to carry out a precision strike, they will significantly reduce their flight speed. this is a weakness of this type of missile. russia's "iskander" missile flies much faster than them.

thus, although atacms poses a certain threat to russian air defense systems, the threat is not that great. the latest improved models of russia's "tor" and "buk" air defense systems can shoot down this missile.

q: could an atacms strike on russian territory affect the course of combat operations?

a: this certainly won't reverse the situation on the battlefield, and the ukrainian army won't be able to get the quantity it wants. this missile is expensive, with some models costing $2 million each. no one will throw money around, and the americans don't have much in their own stockpile. as a new step in the escalation process, this license does pose a threat and will bring danger.