international observation: the us staged an election "reality show" and a "perfect storm" is about to come
2024-09-11
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xinhua news agency, beijing/philadelphia, usa, september 11title: the u.s. staged an election "reality show" and a "perfect storm" was about to come
xinhua news agency reporter sun ding, xiong maoling and tan jingjing
the first televised debate after the reshaping of the 2024 u.s. presidential election landscape was held in philadelphia on the evening of the 10th local time. u.s. vice president and democratic presidential candidate harris and former president and republican presidential candidate trump staged a fierce war of words, full of gunpowder.
american media and experts believe that as the election campaign enters the "sprint stage", this election "reality show" once again reflects the sharp differences between the two u.s. parties and their candidates on a series of policy issues, highlighting the increasing political division and polarization in the united states in the context of an election year.
this live video footage shot at the philadelphia presidential debate media center on september 10 shows u.s. vice president and democratic presidential candidate harris (right) and former u.s. president and republican presidential candidate trump participating in a televised debate in philadelphia. photo by xinhua news agency reporter li rui
'a frustrating debate'
the televised debate hosted by the american broadcasting corporation began at 9 p.m. local time and lasted about 100 minutes. this was the first debate between the two as presidential candidates of their respective parties. according to u.s. media reports, this was also the first time the two met.
at the beginning of the debate, the host first brought up the economic topic. harris first spoke to introduce her "opportunity economy" plan, and then changed the subject to attack the tax cuts supported by trump, saying that they serve the rich. trump retorted that the economic policies of the current us president biden and harris have caused serious inflation in the united states and "ruined the us economy." harris responded that she and biden need to clean up the "mess" left by trump's administration.
after that, the two debated hot topics of the election, such as immigration, abortion rights, justice, foreign policy, health care, gun control, and race. however, the debate did not focus on specific policy details, but quickly fell into fierce mutual attacks. during the debate, harris mentioned that trump was criminally prosecuted and impeached, and trump attributed the previous assassination attempt to the democrats repeatedly calling him a "threat to american democracy." the two accused each other of lying many times and tried to interrupt each other's speeches many times, and the scene was chaotic for a while. after the debate, the two did not shake hands and left separately.
the washington post interviewed voters in swing states such as wisconsin, georgia, and pennsylvania after the debate, showing that voters had different views on which candidate performed better. however, many voters expressed their disappointment with the election, with some saying that the debate was "frustrating" and others saying they "didn't want to vote for either of them."
this is a photo of us president biden (second from left) and vice president harris (second from right) taken at the white house in washington, the united states on july 4. photo by xinhua news agency reporter hu yousong
'very close' election
over the past three months, the us presidential election has been full of surprises and twists and turns. harris, who succeeded biden after he withdrew from the race, has entered a so-called "honeymoon period", with her poll ratings both nationwide and in swing states comparable to trump's.
data compiled by the us election information website "real transparency politics" show that as of the 10th, harris leads trump by an average of 1.1 percentage points in national polls, while in the seven key swing states of pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan, north carolina, georgia, nevada, and arizona, the average difference between the two is 0.2 percentage points. douglas schoen, an american political analyst, believes that in terms of poll data, this year's presidential election is one of the closest in modern us history.
analysts believe that trump and harris each have their own advantages. nat cohen, chief political analyst for the new york times, pointed out that voters know trump better than harris, and most voters are dissatisfied with the current situation in the united states, which is more favorable to trump, who is currently in the opposition. according to a poll released by the pew research center on the eve of the debate, trump has higher approval ratings on the economy and immigration, with 55% and 53% of voters surveyed believing that trump will do a better job, respectively.
harris has an advantage on issues such as abortion and among minority voters. the pew research center poll shows that on the issue of abortion rights, harris's support rate is 54%, higher than trump's 39%; among african-american, asian and hispanic voters, harris's support rate is 84%, 61% and 57% respectively.
american political scientist david axelrod believes that since harris took over biden's election, the election situation between her and trump has been very stalemate, and it is difficult to say who will win or lose.
this live video footage shot at the philadelphia presidential debate media center on september 10 shows u.s. vice president and democratic presidential candidate harris (right) and former u.s. president and republican presidential candidate trump participating in a televised debate in philadelphia. photo by xinhua news agency reporter li rui
election on a 'powder keg'
with less than two months left until the november 5 voting day, the election campaign has entered its "sprint phase." regarding this debate, the u.s. media commented that the united states should prepare for the storm of election chaos.
the ash center for democratic governance and innovation at harvard kennedy school of government held a seminar on "political violence and the 2024 presidential election" in late july. experts and scholars attending the seminar said that from the attempted assassination of trump to the 10-fold surge in threats against members of congress in the past 10 years, political violence in the united states has been increasing in recent years, and as the voting day of this election approaches, there is a great risk of more violence. erica chenoweth, provost of the harvard kennedy school, said that polls show that people are increasingly concerned about political violence. sarah birch, a professor of political science at king's college london, believes that the fierce campaign style of both sides may lead to election violence.
after the 2020 presidential election, trump and his supporters questioned the election results, which led to the capitol hill riots. during this campaign, trump said that "of course there will be a peaceful transfer of power," but he hoped that the election would be "honest." the latest poll by the british polling company yougov shows that nearly 30% of american voters surveyed believe that a peaceful transfer of power after this year's presidential election is "unlikely" or "impossible." usa today quoted the results of a study by the american nonprofit social religion research institute on the 10th, saying that more than a quarter of republicans and nearly a third of republicans who have a favorable impression of trump believe that political violence is acceptable.
axios, a us political news website, wrote in an article that more and more signs indicate that this is an election on a "powder keg". under the catalysis of multiple factors such as political polarization, political violence, false information, and historic lawsuits, a "perfect storm" has been brewing for a long time and is about to come. "november in the united states is destined to be stormy."
