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author: er yan

editor: zhihao

just now! tesla officially announced that fsd will be launched in china in the first quarter of next year.

according to autothings on september 5, tesla's ai team just released a technical roadmap on twitter, and then the progress of tesla's fsd in china was exposed. the tesla team expects fsd to be launched in china in the first quarter of 2025, but tesla also noted at the end that it is "pending regulatory approval."

▲tesla ai team officially announced that fsd will be launched in china in q1 2025

in addition to next year's plan, tesla's ai team also announced fsd's current progress and recent development goals. the information shows: september 2024: push fsd v12.5.2, with a 3-fold improvement in takeover rate; push v12.5.2 of the hw 3.0 platform, and the 4.0 unified model; push true smart summoning; push cybertruck automatic parking; launch sunglasses-based attention detection capabilities; push high-speed end-to-end; push cybertruck's fsd.

in october 2024, tesla plans to push fsd reversing and parking-to-parking capabilities; the average takeover rate of fsd v13 will be improved by 6 times.

the latest developments show that tesla fsd is constantly improving towards its implementation goal.

while the official news was warming up to the introduction of tesla fsd into china, a rumor continued to ferment.

it is reported that this morning several beijing real estate agencies released videos saying that musk bought a house in beijing for us$150 million (approximately rmb 1.065 billion), and purchased the aerial courtyard at no. 8 xiaoyun road, beijing.

a real estate agent in the community responded that musk’s purchase of the house was genuine and he had indeed bought a top-floor courtyard house in the community. the sales office responded that they could not tell us and that “it was inconvenient to disclose the owner’s information to the public.”

but there was also a screenshot of a salesperson’s circle of friends, revealing that musk’s mother had participated in his real estate event.

▲the salesperson posted a photo of musk’s mother in the community (source: internet)

according to a 2015 report by people's daily online, the sky courtyard project at no. 8 xiaoyun road, beijing, has a starting price of 360,000 yuan per square meter and a maximum price of 500,000 yuan per square meter. calculated, the total price of a single property will be between 360 million and 500 million yuan.

however, this news was quickly denied by tesla officials.

▲tesla's official response to this matter is pure hype (photo source: internet)

it has been more than four months since musk’s visit to china this year, but rumors about tesla fsd entering china have never stopped.

although tesla officials further mentioned the progress of fsd's introduction to china at the second quarter earnings conference, tesla officials and the chinese government have never given a clear response as to the specific time. this news further confirms that tesla's fsd is very close to entering china.

1. musk has repeatedly “delayed delivery”. is tesla relying on fsd?

during tesla's second quarter 2024 earnings call, tesla ceo elon musk further answered questions about the progress of tesla's fsd entry into china.

▲musk is confident in tesla fsd

musk said that supervised fsd will come to china, europe and other countries after the release of v12.6, and will be submitted for regulatory approval at the time of launch.

currently, fsd has been upgraded to v12.5. according to the update rhythm of every two months, if there is no delay, v12.6 is likely to be launched within this year.

musk also mentioned that they plan to reach an important milestone this year, that is, after driving more than one billion miles in real life, the regulated autonomous driving system will be safer than human drivers.

he also mentioned that if fsd is licensed to other automakers, the hardware will need to be upgraded, including cameras and gateways with cellular and wi-fi capabilities, and said it will take several years to achieve scale.

recently, according to industry reports, tesla fsd v12.5.3 has been pushed overseas, along with its ass (true smart summon) function, which is developed based on tesla's new autonomous driving technology stack and the corresponding software version is 2024.27.20.

it is reported that the number of parameters of fsd v12.5 will be five times that of v12.4, which can achieve the unification of algorithms for highways and general roads.

previously, musk had announced that version v12.5 will be released in late june, and version v12.6 is being tested. from this, it can be seen that it will be difficult to launch version v12.5 within the expected time.

▲ musk announced that version v12.5 will be released in june

as for ass, in fact, as early as october 2022, musk stated that ass was "about to be completed", but it was not until nearly two years later that it was finally completed.

2. investors questioned the payment conversion rate before fsd entered china

as early as around mid-may, gary black, a well-known tesla investor and managing partner of the future fund, said that data from credit card data provider yipitdate showed that among tesla's american owners who received a one-month free trial of fsd, only 2% chose to subscribe to the service after the trial period, while he expected 6%.

▲well-known tesla investors questioned fsd's payment conversion rate

however, this does not prove that tesla's fsd usage rate is not high, because the survey uses a relatively small sample size. "among 1.8 million trials, the sample size is only 3,500 users, so it may not represent the tesla owner group."

in response, musk refuted the rumor, saying that tesla fsd's payment conversion rate is far more than 2%.

▲tesla fsd's payment conversion rate far exceeds 2%

gary black pointed out that tesla needs to figure out whether the low subscription rate is due to the low perceived added value of the fsd service or the subscription fee of us$99/month (approximately rmb 703/month).

in the second quarter of this year, tesla lowered the price of fsd (supervised) in north america and launched a free trial to all users with the necessary hardware. it is expected that with the improvement of functions and the deepening of users' awareness of convenience and safety, the fsd payment conversion rate of tesla's fleet will increase.

▲fsd v12.5 (beta version)

during this long period, musk continued to warm up and cheer for the launch of tesla fsd.

at tesla's 2024 annual shareholders meeting, musk still spared no effort to introduce major updates to fsd.

musk strongly stated that he recommends that everyone test drive fsd v12. each version update of fsd is improving at an exponential rate, and there will be 10 improvements between each major version update, eventually achieving unsupervised fully autonomous driving. there is no doubt that its safety will far exceed human driving.

at the same time, musk also envisioned the future of fsd's final form. tesla cars equipped with fsd will be able to "run out and make money on their own" when idle. the income from running "didi" through fsd will be far higher than the monthly car expenses.

tesla continues to make important breakthroughs in the application of autonomous driving technology. with the launch of these new versions, tesla's leadership in the field of autonomous driving is expected to be further consolidated. the continuously improved autonomous driving technology also lays the foundation for the implementation of tesla fsd in china.

3. baidu lane level navigation is installed in tesla cars and the ban on driving in china is lifted

in china, tesla is constantly clearing obstacles for the introduction of fsd into china.

on april 28 this year, musk's private plane landed in beijing. afterwards, musk accepted a meeting with ren hongbin, president of the china council for the promotion of international trade, to discuss topics such as the next step of cooperation.

▲musk arrived in beijing (photo source: internet)

regarding this trip to china, reuters pointed out that musk came to china to discuss the implementation of fsd in china, and the implementation of fsd in china is expected to accelerate.

the next day, the china association of automobile manufacturers and the national computer network emergency response technical processing coordination center certified that tesla met the four data compliance requirements required by the law, namely, anonymization of facial information outside the vehicle, no collection of cockpit data by default, in-vehicle processing of cockpit data, and significant notification of processing of personal information. this means that the most authoritative standards and requirements in china recognize tesla's data security performance.

▲china automobile association certifies tesla meets four data processing security requirements

it can be seen that the two sides have basically completed communication and exploration from the top level to the scenes and details.

this means that tesla-branded cars can enter government agencies, airports, highways and other scenes without restrictions. at the same time, this also lays a solid foundation for fsd to enter the chinese market.

tesla is also working hard to introduce fsd v12 to china, and in may, related words appeared in the car systems of tesla chinese employees.

▲the fsd registration logo appears on the in-car system of tesla’s chinese employees

in early june, baidu officially announced that it had reached a cooperation agreement with tesla. as part of this, baidu will provide lane-level navigation services for tesla cars. baidu map v20 lane-level navigation is now the world's first for tesla.

▲baidu maps officially announced that v20 lane-level navigation will be launched on tesla

in mid-june, it was reported that lu sen, director of the data department of the shanghai lingang new area management committee, revealed that nanhui new city is promoting 10 tesla vehicles to carry out a pilot program of fully autonomous driving (fsd).

it is worth noting that nanhui new city is located in the lingang new area of ​​shanghai, which is also the site of tesla's first energy storage super factory outside the united states. since tesla entered china 10 years ago, another large-scale investment project in china after the shanghai super factory was born here, which shows how much tesla attaches importance to this area.

tesla's fsd entry into china continues to accelerate.

conclusion: fsd’s entry into china is accelerating

at present, it is difficult to guarantee 100% perfection for an emerging technology that has not yet been implemented on a large scale globally. tesla needs to continue to optimize fsd to further ensure the safety of local consumers, and even chinese consumers.

for users, any advanced intelligent driving cannot completely replace humans. they can use it as a means to relieve driving fatigue, but they still need to concentrate and take over in a timely manner to ensure their own travel safety.

fsd will certainly face many challenges when it is launched in china. however, just as tesla took the lead in launching a price war, it is time for tesla to join the high-end intelligent driving race. the king of pure vision in north america vs the first echelon of high-end intelligent driving in china, they can then compete with each other.