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welcome to the "nba dictionary" column. since cctv first broadcast nba in 1986, the spread of nba in china has been nearly 30 years. with the rise of internet culture, nba has not only popularized many professional basketball terms, but also derived a large number of "nba jargons". these jargons have no clear definition. this column will try to interpret these words with professional knowledge.

in the development of modern basketball, there is a term closely associated with the "three-point shot" - the moneyball theory. this concept, proposed by the former general manager of the houston rockets, has had a profound impact on the style of nba and even world basketball. even though many teams have achieved success with this in recent years, the public's doubts about the moneyball theory have never been completely eliminated, and many people still sneer at the moneyball concept and regard it as trash.

the moneyball concept is not original to basketball. it was first popularized in baseball. the prototype of the moneyball concept is called sabermetrics, a quantitative method for evaluating baseball players with the help of advanced statistics. the moneyball concept was first created by bill james, but it was billy beane, the general manager of the oakland athletics, who really made it famous.

in 2002, under beane's leadership, the oakland athletics successfully built a competitive team on a limited budget and made the playoffs. michael lewis wrote the book "moneyball: the art of winning against all odds" in 2003 based on this strategy, and the popular movie "moneyball" starring brad pitt was released in 2011, which was widely praised and made this strategy well-known again.

lewis's moneyball includes three aspects: data analysis, cost-effective talent selection methods, and non-traditional strategies. the core idea is to use statistical analysis to find players and strategies that traditional scouts and managers may overlook. for many years, participants in most sports have relied mainly on intuition, experience and basic statistics to make decisions, and the introduction of advanced statistics is a radical change to this traditional way of thinking. after the rockets' general manager and executive vice president of basketball operations introduced the moneyball concept to the nba, the concept was given a new name: moreyball.

the penetration of the moneyball concept in the nba can be seen everywhere, from shot distribution to data analysis to talent selection, but the most core and well-known point of view is "encourage more three-pointers and shots at the basket, and reduce mid-range attempts."

the principle of "three-pointer + basket" is very simple: to maximize the cost-effectiveness of each shot. the closer to the basket, the higher the hit rate. this is an iron rule that has remained unchanged in basketball games for so many years. in comparison, close-range shots close to the basket are more likely to cause fouls, and there are bonuses for free throws. this is undoubtedly the area with the highest return rate on shots on the basketball court. for shots far from the basket, the return rate of three-pointers is higher than that of mid-range shots: the mid-range hit rate needs to be more than 50% for the return rate of each shot to exceed 1 point, while the same result can be achieved with a three-pointer with a hit rate of only 33%.

there are many misunderstandings about the magicball concept: the magicball concept does not only emphasize shooting more three-pointers. the basket has been a battleground for military strategists since ancient times, and no team can completely abandon the basket and survive only by three-pointers; the magicball concept does not mean completely abandoning mid-range shooting, but turning some mid-range catch-and-shoot shots with low cost-effectiveness into three-point catch-and-shoot shots with higher cost-effectiveness; the magicball concept is not only about offense, the same concept can also be implemented on the defensive end, focusing on defending the three-point line and the basket, forcing opponents to shoot more mid-range shots.

in the past decade, the moneyball concept has changed the game format of the nba. from the distribution of shots in the past decade, we can see that the proportion of three-pointers and restricted area shots has increased year by year, while the proportion of mid-range shots has gradually decreased. this is one of the most significant characteristics of modern basketball: the pursuit of a high-efficiency offensive mode.

as mentioned earlier, what the moneyball concept really abandons is the catch-and-shoot mid-range shot, and the decline in this type of shot in the past decade is alarming, while the number of catch-and-shoot three-pointers has increased day by day.

data analysis expert seth paterno has conducted a more in-depth study on the decline in mid-range shots. he found that although the number of catch-and-shoot mid-range shots is decreasing, it does not affect star players from continuing to shoot those mid-range shots. these "killer moves" in the eyes of fans have not been eliminated by modern basketball, but role players are no longer allowed to take these difficult shots that are beyond their authority.

regarding catch-and-shoot three-pointers, paterno found that the increase in the proportion of catch-and-shoot three-pointers for role players with a low possession rate was much higher than that for star players with a higher possession rate. this actually reflects the impact of the moneyball concept on talent selection and player training.

as if it was destined, the introduction of the moneyball concept into the nba and the rise of stephen curry happened almost at the same time. under the combined influence of the two, the skill of holding the ball and shooting three-pointers has gradually been mastered by more and more players. in the past decade, although the number of catch-and-shoot three-pointers in the league has been steadily increasing, the increase in holding-and-shoot three-pointers is greater, and the proportion of catch-and-shoot three-pointers is actually decreasing year by year.

another trend of the moneyball concept is the popularization of three-point shooting technology to all positions. ten years ago, space-type inside players were rare, but now they are no longer rare in the nba. in the 2013-14 season, there were only eight inside players in the league who took more than five three-point shots per 100 possessions, while in the just-concluded 2023-24 season, there were already 33 inside players who could do this.

the moneyball concept also drives changes in defensive concepts. in modern basketball, the defensive concept has gradually shifted from interfering with shots to changing the distribution of shots. more and more teams have realized that accumulating shots at the basket and the three-point line can improve efficiency, and teams have also developed countermeasures-since you want the basket and three-pointers, then i won't let you shoot in these places, and you can shoot as much as you want from the mid-range. the bucks, who won the championship in 2021, are one of the best practitioners of this defensive concept.

to this day, the changes that moneyball has brought to the defensive philosophy are still fermenting. as the league's general three-point shooting level is improving, it is becoming increasingly difficult to limit three-point shots on defense, and some teams have begun to make trade-offs. for example, the celtics, who ranked first in defensive efficiency in the regular season this year, although they only ranked in the middle and lower reaches of the league in limiting the proportion of opponents' three-pointers, their opponents' bottom corner three-pointers have the second lowest proportion in the league and the lowest hit rate in the league. at the same time, they will distinguish between the opposing shooters and try to let the shooters with worse accuracy shoot three-pointers.

another example is the thunder. young head coach daignolt believes that defense in the restricted area is more important than limiting three-pointers. "this is a three-point-dominated league, but free throws are still more efficient than three-pointers, layups are still more efficient than three-pointers, and transition offense is also more efficient than three-pointers." daignolt said. "and not all three-pointers are the same. those three-pointers created by breaking through the ball are more likely to be caught and shot, more likely to be open shots, and have a higher hit rate."

in the 2023-24 regular season, the thunder's opponents took 41.5% of their three-point shots, only lower than three teams, but their defense still ranked second in the league. they are the best team in limiting opponents' field goal percentage at the basket, and their turnover rate ranks first in the league.

"so, we do allow them to shoot a lot of 3s," daigneault said. "we've been giving them 3s the last few years. but we try to control what 3s they shoot."

a common argument about moneyball is that the oakland athletics never won a championship while using it. while that is true, many other teams have found success with it, and former red sox general manager theo epstein used quantitative metrics to bring boston two championships (2004, 2007).

in the nba, similar success stories have become more common in recent years. for example, the boston celtics, who just won the championship, had 73.6% of their shots from the basket (0-4 feet from the basket) and beyond the three-point line in the 23-24 regular season, and their magic ball rate (the percentage of shots from the basket + three-pointers) ranked first in the league. there are many other teams that practice the magic ball concept. although they failed to win the championship, they all relied on this model to build competitiveness in the league.

however, the moneyball theory only provides a set of efficient success models for modern teams, but it does not mean that this is the only way to go. the more moneyball a team has, the better its offense does not mean. for example, in the 23-24 regular season, the grizzlies were the fourth team in the league in moneyball rate (71.4%), but their points per 100 possessions ranked only 24th in the league, and their points per 100 possessions were second only to the celtics, the nuggets and the thunder. their moneyball rates were in the middle and lower reaches of the league.

it seems that the offensive revolution brought by moneyball to the nba will never end. however, a previous study by shane saunders, professor of sports analytics, and justin ehrlich, associate professor of sports analytics at the falk school of sport and human dynamics, showed that although the number of three-point shots continues to increase, the average expected score of the overall three-point shot in the nba has been less than two points since the 2017-18 season.

"when taking into account fouls and free throws, we found that the advantage that 3-pointers once enjoyed gradually turned into a disadvantage starting in the 2017-18 season, and this trend has continued," ehrlich said. "the potential implications of this finding for team lineup construction and offensive trends are very large."

to conduct the study, sanders and ehrlich used a generalized additive model to estimate overall shooting efficiency in a half-court offense. they incorporated free throws awarded for shooting fouls to determine the total point gain from the shooting decision, which sanders and ehrlich called the “true point value.”

the data shows that in the 2022-23 season, the true score value of two-point shots is 1.181 points, and the true score value of three-point shots is 1.094 points. even without taking free throws into account, researchers found that the expected score of three-point shots (1.083 points) is already lower than that of two-point shots (1.096 points).

in fact, the growth of the proportion of three-pointers in the nba has slowed down in recent years, and teams have begun to adjust their shooting choices. but saunders said that their findings do not mean that stars like curry or lillard should not shoot more three-pointers. "it means that some average shooters should not shoot three-pointers frequently, nor should they expand their shooting range to 25-26 feet or even further. players can still gain offensive space through positioning without frequently shooting from the outside." saunders said.

（NBA）