circulation association: replacement subsidies are increasing, and passenger car sales are expected to reach 1.95 million in august
2024-09-05
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the china automobile dealers association predicts that passenger car terminal sales in august will be about 1.95 million units, a significant increase compared to july. september car sales are expected to be higher than august, achieving both year-on-year and month-on-month growth.
the circulation association pointed out that the intensified scrapping subsidy update, coupled with the gradual implementation of local replacement and renewal subsidy policies, will provide strong support for stimulating automobile consumption demand, and is expected to have a significant promoting effect on the passenger car market in the last four months of this year.
at the monthly situation analysis meeting held on september 2, the china automobile dealers association stated that after the car "old for new" policy was strengthened, the average daily application volume for scrapping and renewal subsidies exceeded 10,000 since august, driving the month-on-month growth of terminal sales. it is estimated that the terminal sales of passenger cars in august will be about 1.95 million units, a significant increase compared with july.
the circulation association analyzed that as the school season approaches, the demand for car purchases by families continues to rise. at the same time, most dealers launched limited-time activities during the "8.18" car buying festival. more importantly, the subsidy policy for scrapping and replacing cars was further strengthened on july 25, which promoted the recovery of the car market during the off-season.
a survey by the circulation association showed that about 50.6% of dealers said that the policy has effectively promoted the increase in the proportion of scrapped and renewed cars, with an increase of 5% to 10%, and a few dealer stores have seen an increase of up to 20%.
in april this year, the ministry of commerce, the ministry of finance and other seven departments issued the "implementation rules for subsidies for auto trade-in", clarifying the subsidy standards for scrapped and updated cars. in july, the national development and reform commission and the ministry of finance jointly issued the "several measures on further supporting large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in", raising the subsidy standards. in august, the ministry of commerce and other seven departments issued the "notice on further improving the work related to auto trade-in", requiring all localities to speed up the formulation of implementation plans for auto replacement and update.
according to the circulation association, the central government had already sent out a signal at the beginning of this year that central funds would be used for scrapping and renewal, while local funds would be used for replacement and renewal. however, by the end of july, few local replacement and renewal policies had been introduced. it was not until the central government clearly stated that 150 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds would be used to support the replacement of old consumer goods that the financial problems of local governments were solved. at the end of july, the central government stated that the ultra-long-term special government bond funds would be allocated to local governments by the end of august, so provinces and cities have recently issued local replacement and renewal policies.
at present, qinghai, hubei, hunan, zhejiang, hainan, guangdong, sichuan, chongqing, shanghai, beijing and other provinces and cities have successively introduced automobile replacement subsidy policies. according to the consumption trends calculated by various places, the replacement subsidy strength is also different. for example, the maximum subsidy for a bicycle in sichuan is 10,000 yuan, and the maximum subsidy for a bicycle in qinghai is 20,000 yuan. other provinces and cities are basically concentrated around 13,000-15,000 yuan, and new energy vehicles are 1,000-3,000 yuan more than fuel vehicles. the circulation association said that the subsidy amount can be equal to or even stronger than the purchase tax halved amount.
therefore, the scrapping subsidy is being updated and strengthened, and the local replacement and renewal subsidy policies are gradually taking effect, which will provide strong support for boosting automobile consumption demand. the circulation association predicts that the replacement subsidy policy will have a significant boost to the passenger car market in the last four months of this year.
overall, the indicators of the automobile circulation market are recovering. according to the inventory warning index released by the circulation association, it was 56.2% in august, down 0.7% year-on-year and 3.2% month-on-month, and the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry has improved. of course, dealers are also facing certain challenges at present, and their operating conditions have not yet reached the expected level. the main reasons include the continuous decline in new car prices, losses in new car sales, high liquidity pressure, and continued weak overall market demand.
looking ahead, the automobile circulation association said that september is the beginning of the peak season for automobile consumption, and the cool autumn weather is the time when weddings are concentrated. the arrival of the mid-autumn festival and national day is also conducive to consumers buying cars in stores. september is the end of the third quarter, and dealers will carry out sales promotion activities to achieve quarterly targets. after two months of accumulation in july and august, the accumulated demand of consumers will begin to be released, and the automobile sales in september are expected to be higher than that in august, achieving both year-on-year and month-on-month growth. (china economic net reporter chen mengyu, picture source: china automobile circulation association)
source: china economic net
