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on september 3rd, eastern time (the first trading day of september for u.s. stocks), u.s. technology stocks plummeted, with chip giant nvidia falling as much as 9.5%.the market value evaporated by 279 billion u.s. dollars (about 2 trillion yuan) on that day, setting a record for the highest single-day market value loss of individual stocks in the history of the u.s. stock market.。

after the market closed, the u.s. department of justice issued a subpoena to nvidia, seeking evidence that the company violated antitrust laws. as a result, nvidia's stock price continued to fall in after-hours trading, down 2.4%.

image source: google finance

in fact, the pressure nvidia faces not only comes from the antitrust investigation by the us department of justice, but there are also rumors in the market that the shipment time of its latest generation of gaming chips may be delayed. this news has exacerbated market concerns about the stability of the supply chain and made investors doubt the future development of nvidia.

under the double pressure, nvidia's prospects have become increasingly uncertain, but some analysts remain optimistic about the company's prospects, believing that this is a buying opportunity under the wave of the ai ​​revolution. daniel ives, a senior analyst at wedbush, pointed out in his latest report to the reporter of the "daily economic news" that despite the market turmoil caused by macroeconomic uncertainty and the approaching us presidential election, the demand in the field of ai far exceeds the supply, especially companies represented by nvidia, which are still the core leaders of the industry. ives predicts that ai capital expenditures will reach $1 trillion in the next few years, and nvidia's gpu chips have become a key force in promoting technological development.

market value evaporated by nearly 2 trillion yuan overnight! nvidia may face antitrust lawsuit from the us department of justice

on september 3rd, eastern time, nvidia's stock price opened 2.8% lower and then continued to fall. the closing price fell 9.5% to $108, the lowest in three weeks since august 9th.the market value evaporated by 279 billion u.s. dollars (about 2 trillion yuan) on that day.the total market value shrank to $2.65 trillion. nvidia's sharp drop also led to a decline in other chip stocks such as intel, marvell, amd and qualcomm. the vaneck semiconductor etf index, which tracks semiconductor stocks, fell 7.5%, the largest single-day drop since march 2020.

image source: google finance

analysts believe that the most direct factor for the market crash that day was the poor performance of the latest economic data released by the united states in august, which brought huge pressure to the market. in addition, nvidia has been falling since the release of its financial report after the market closed on august 28, and it is also facing growth pressure. since the release of the financial report, nvidia's stock price has fallen by 14% cumulatively.

but nvidia's troubles don't end there. after the u.s. stock market closed on september 3, nvidia received a subpoena from the u.s. department of justice.

foreign media quoted sources familiar with the investigation as saying that the u.s. department of justice has issued subpoenas to nvidia and several other companies in an effort to find evidence that nvidia has violated u.s. antitrust laws. previously, the u.s. department of justice had issued non-binding questionnaires seeking more information. the issuance of this subpoena marks an escalation of the investigation. these legally binding documents require the recipient to provide specific information.indicates that the us government may be preparing to file a formal lawsuit against nvidia。

u.s. antitrust officials believe thatnvidia may have limited competition by making it more difficult for customers to switch to other suppliers, and it may have also penalized customers who don’t use its ai chips exclusively.some groups have complained that nvidia threatens customers who use both nvidia and its competitors’ chips, forcing them to choose nvidia.

sources said some nvidia customers are concerned that nvidia may charge them higher chip prices or limit the number of chips it sells to them if their companies buy chips from competitors such as amd. a representative from an nvidia competitor reportedly accused the justice department that customers can get lower prices in bundles if they buy nvidia chips and products such as cables at the same time, including the highly sought-after h100 chip, while the price of buying a single product is higher. another representative accused nvidia of limiting the number of chips customers can get unless they buy additional nvidia products at the same time.

people familiar with the matter said regulators are conducting corresponding investigations. nvidia has now become a key link in the supply chain of global technology giants. for example, microsoft and meta spend more than 40% of their hardware budgets on purchasing nvidia equipment. at the peak of the nvidia h100 chip shortage, the retail price of a single component was as high as $90,000.

also,the justice department is also investigating nvidia's acquisition of run.ai, which was announced in april.run.ai develops ai computing management software that allows ai chips to run more efficiently. regulators are concerned that the deal could further strengthen nvidia's market dominance and make it more difficult for customers to switch from using nvidia chips.

in response to the u.s. department of justice's antitrust investigation, nvidia said: "nvidia wins the market by virtue of the advantages of its own products, which is fully reflected in our benchmark results and the value obtained by customers. customers can choose the most suitable solution according to their needs."

will the gaming chip based on blackwell architecture be delayed?

at the same time, bad news also came from nvidia's chip department.

according to media reports, there is news from the supply chain that due to the need for re-tapeout (rto) to improve yield,nvidia's consumer-grade gaming chip geforce rtx 50 series graphics cards based on the blackwell architecture will be launched later than originally planned.however, the news did not mention the specific release time. the financial report shows that the gaming department is nvidia's second largest department, second only to the data center department.

nvidia said in its earnings call last week that it is currently focusing on the production of blackwell data center gpus. in terms of revenue, this type of product accounts for a large part of nvidia's total revenue, and the market demand is extremely strong, while tsmc's production capacity may lead to supply bottlenecks.

according to foreign media reports, although tsmc has invested huge amounts of money in expanding its production capacity, chip production still requires the construction of factories, which is an extremely complex process and is becoming increasingly difficult. in addition, tsmc not only serves nvidia, but also chip design companies including qualcomm, amd, and intel. in addition, technology giants such as amazon and google are also developing their own chips, and future production capacity competition will be more intense. openai's latest first self-developed chip is also produced by tsmc, and it is expected that the competition for production capacity will intensify in the future.

therefore, the market generally expects that the release time of the geforce rtx 50 series graphics cards may be postponed from the fourth quarter to ces 2025. however, it is worth noting that as of now, nvidia has not announced the launch time of this series of graphics cards.

is it time to buy the dip? analysts debate

the negative news that followed has put nvidia, the "chip giant", in a dilemma. however, some analysts remain optimistic about nvidia, believing that this wave of selling provides an opportunity to buy on dips.

“now investors are starting to question whether the returns on investment can be realized,” said randy abrams, head of research at ubs global asset management. “when they see some of the macro data not being as strong, they’re a little nervous. so there’s a question of whether the music continues to play and whether cloud computing investments are still there.”

abrams added that weak data is causing panic in ai stocks, but "what we're seeing from the supply chain and the hyperscalers is that they're going to continue to spend." that's the argument for buying the dip.

after nvidia released its earnings report, analysts at multinational investment bank stifel reiterated their "buy" rating and $165 price target for nvidia. the analysts wrote in the report:the modernization of data center computing continues, and we believe nvidia remains a major beneficiary.”

wedbush senior analyst daniel ives also pointed out in a report sent to the reporter of daily economic news thatalthough the sell-off in technology stocks in september unnerved some investors, he insisted that the bull market logic for technology stocks has not changed and nvidia's key role in the ai ​​revolution remains unshakable.

ives further stated that although technology stocks have been under pressure from risk aversion recently, as the federal reserve may start a rate cut cycle and the possibility of a soft landing in the macro economy still exists, the spending cycle for artificial intelligence technology has just begun, which provides a basis for the future rise of technology stocks. he believes that technology stocks will continue to rise in 2025.

bernstein senior analyst stacey rasgon said in an interview with foreign media that nvidia is expected to increase production of its next-generation blackwell chip in the fourth quarter of this year, which may push up its stock price.

“i think right now people are a little concerned that nvidia is kind of stagnant,” rasgon said. “once nvidia ramps up production in the fourth quarter and first quarter and production growth stabilizes, i expect the stock price will probably follow.”

however, some analysts remain cautious about the overall ai market.

paul nolte, market strategist and senior wealth manager at murphy & sylvest wealth management, noted that while the huge spending in the ai ​​field has attracted much attention, the return on these investments remains uncertain. he also mentioned,looking back at the early days of the internet, the first companies to win were not always the ultimate winners., so now is not the time to buy ai-related stocks on the dip.