news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

it's still the familiar recipe, and it still tastes the same. today (the first trading day of september), the "good start" that a-share investors expected did not appear. the shanghai composite index opened lower and continued to fall, and this is the 74th trading day of continuous adjustment since the high point in may.

during this round of a-share market adjustment, there was almost no decent rebound, except for the abnormal rise in june, july and the end of august. so, will it be the same in september?

expected to rebound

at present, many securities firms have released their september strategies. from their point of view, it has become a consensus that a-shares are expected to rebound.

as cicc believes, the market is expected to stabilize marginally in september. there are three main reasons:first, the mid-year performance disclosure of a-share listed companies has ended. entering a performance vacuum period, the fundamental pressure in some sectors has been temporarily relieved;

second, policies to stabilize growth are expected to be further strengthened.the recent release of industrial enterprise profits in july and pmi data in august have reflected the current situation of weak domestic demand, which requires the support of stable growth policies. in addition, in terms of monetary policy, the central bank has optimized the interest rate regulation mechanism, and after the fed cuts interest rates, policy space is expected to be further opened up;third, as expectations for a september rate cut by the federal reserve rise, global funds are expected to be reallocated, which may be good for chinese assets.

guotai junan securities clearly pointed out that if there is a significant interest rate cut in september, it will "sound the horn" for the market attack.

dongguan securities, cinda securities, and zhongyuan securities all have similar views, believing that a rebound is expected in september. at the same time, dongguan securities pointed out, "from a technical perspective, the market stabilized and rebounded at the end of august, the chinext index recorded three consecutive positive days, the market volume gradually recovered, and investor confidence has warmed up. after continuous shocks and corrections, the current a-shares have a high cost-effectiveness and safety margin. the stabilization of the rmb exchange rate has also boosted the capital side and market confidence. september is expected to be a window period for the market to repair and rebound."

however, cinda securities also pointed out that it is still uncertain whether the rebound in september can become an opportunity for reversal. "because in the history of a-shares, the first bottom can be driven by policy liquidity, but the second bottom mostly needs to be driven by earnings. at present, the conditions for rebound have been gradually met, but the signs of earnings improvement are still weak compared with the second bottoms of the market in history, so it is estimated that there will be fluctuations after the rebound."

two major directions

in terms of the specific areas of concern, the recommendations of brokerage firms are also consistent, mainly focusing on two major areas: one is consumer electronics in the view of many securities firms, this is mainly related to two major factors: fundamentals and event catalysis. since july this year, the concept indexes related to consumer electronics and semiconductors have adjusted by more than 10%, and the valuation is relatively low now. however, the performance growth is not low. due to the continuous recovery of consumer electronics in the first half of the year, related companies generally benefited and submitted a good report card in the semi-annual report. in this way, consumer electronics has the dual endorsement of valuation and performance.

at the same time, the second half of the year is the traditional peak season for consumer electronics. new product launches by major manufacturers such as apple (iphone 16) and huawei (trifold screen) will be concentrated. if a wave of phone replacement is triggered, this will effectively boost related companies in the industry chain, thereby giving rise to a phased market. in this regard, the author has recently published an article on this public account titled "a highly prosperous track appears!" for analysis.

the second is the high dividends (bonuses) that led the market some time ago and are now falling back pingzheng securities pointed out that "it is normal for the high dividend industry to pull back after experiencing a large increase in gains recently, and it is still a main line worthy of attention." guosheng securities also believes that "in the medium term, the dividend style faces short-term adjustments, but the long-term logic has not been broken, and the medium-term allocation recommendation for dividend assets continues to be maintained."

in terms of the focus, many brokerages no longer recommend traditional high-dividend products. for example, pingzheng securities said that it is necessary to be cautious about targets with dividend yields below 5%, and focus on profitability and dividend capacity rather than simply the dividend rate; zhongtai securities said that the valuation level of traditional high-dividend assets is not low, and some of them still have performance stability risks, so it is recommended to lower the dividend rate requirements and look for "pan-dividend asset" leaders with "dividend rate + stable roe".

based on the indicators that securities firms pay attention to, the author screened some high-dividend stocks (see table 1).

hong kong stocks have high elasticity

also, many brokerage firms also jointly recommended hong kong stocks, especially the internet sector (see table 2).

in the view of many brokerages, the certainty of the fed's interest rate cut in september is increasing. once the rate cut is implemented, it will be beneficial to the liquidity of hong kong stocks. under similar macroeconomic backgrounds, the valuation of hong kong stocks is still cheap enough and more elastic than a-shares. in addition, the trend of global risk assets rising and compensatory gains has not changed since the beginning of this year. as one of the cheapest risk assets in the world, hong kong stocks will rebound first. in particular, the internet, as one of the highly elastic sectors, is usually the industry that benefits the fastest from the inflow of funds from hong kong stocks.

judging from the latest interim reports, the internet is indeed one of the sectors with the fastest growth in performance in hong kong stocks. kuaishou's net profit increased by more than 10 times year-on-year, tencent holdings was 72%, and bilibili was 38%.