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the latest statistics once again sounded the population alarm in south korea.

the latest data released by the korea national statistical office shows that the number of newborns in south korea in 2023 was 230,000, the lowest level since the country began statistics in 1970. also hitting a new low was south korea's total fertility rate in 2023, which was 0.72. among them, the total fertility rate in the capital seoul was only 0.55.

according to the united nations definition, in the absence of immigration, the total fertility rate must reach at least 2.1 to maintain the level of generational replacement. in the annual statistics of the united nations population fund, south korea's total fertility rate has been ranked last among major countries for many years since 2021.

seoul, south korea (source: xinhua news agency)

what does the bank of korea think?

according to xinhua news agency, in recent years, the phenomenon of late marriage and non-marriage has gradually increased in south korean society, and the number of newborns has continued to decrease. in 2017, the number of newborns in south korea fell below the 400,000 mark for the first time, and fell below 300,000 in 2020. in 2022, the number of newborns in south korea was 249,000, and the total fertility rate was 0.78, both of which were the lowest values ​​since south korea had relevant records.

the data for the first quarter of this year is not optimistic, with only 60,000 births, a record low. in this regard, korean scholar kim yun-jun told the first financial reporter that since the number of births is usually higher at the beginning of the year and gradually decreases towards the end of the year, he expects that the birth rate in south korea is likely to drop further in the remaining quarters of this year. some korean experts also believe that the number of newborns in south korea will soon drop below 200,000 for the whole year.

the sudden drop in the number of newborns has directly "dragged down" south korea's total population. according to the results of the "2023 population and housing census" released by the korea national statistical office, if the number of foreign residents is excluded, the number of south korean citizens will continue to decline in 2023, with a decrease of about 0.2% to 49.84 million. this is also the third consecutive year that the number of south korean citizens has declined.

the "population situation outlook" published every two years by the korea national statistical office believes that based on data roughly equivalent to the current birth rate, south korea's total population may fall below 40 million in 2072 to about 36.2 million, of which nearly half will be 65 years old and above.

last week, the bank of korea published a report titled "social problems and countermeasures caused by excessive competition in college entrance examinations" on its website, linking korea's annual fiercely competitive college entrance examinations to the country's rapidly declining birth rate. the report believes that the huge pressure surrounding this process is driving more families to move to the capital area with richer educational resources. this not only increases the cost of education and housing, but also prevents young koreans from getting married and having children.

"parents' financial situation affects their children's chances of entering top universities. for example, wealthy parents flock to areas with strong educational resources, which pushes up real estate prices and affects central bank policies." bank of korea governor lee chang-yong said in a debate last week that the central bank supports long-term structural reforms because related issues also play a role in monetary policy decision-making. "if the implementation of monetary and fiscal policies ignores structural issues, then in south korea, real estate and household debt problems will form a vicious cycle." however, the report's recommendations on education reform have not been recognized by the korean education community.

as early as december last year, the bank of korea issued a report warning that if south korea fails to take effective measures to boost its low fertility rate, its economy will fall into negative growth in 2050.

population strategy planning department established

last week, south korean president yoon seok-yeol introduced the government's progress in reforming the four major areas of pensions, education, medical care and labor, as well as how to overcome the low fertility rate at a national policy briefing and press conference held in seoul on august 29.

regarding the low birth rate, he said that a cross-government "population strategy planning department establishment promotion group" will be established to comprehensively prepare for various matters related to the population strategy planning department, including organization, personnel and budget. yoon seok-yeol said that the population crisis response strategy covers multiple fields such as education, medical care, employment, housing and welfare, so it is urgent to establish a "comprehensive command organization" - the population strategy planning department. it is reported that the department is mainly responsible for work related to population policies such as low birth rate and aging. yoon seok-yeol also expressed the hope that the national assembly will provide assistance and pass relevant laws as soon as possible.

in late june this year, yoon seok-yeol also officially announced that south korea had entered a "demographic emergency" at the "2024 low fertility and aging society committee meeting." he stressed that if the trend of low fertility and aging is not reversed, south korea's population may eventually become extinct. he said that a response system will be launched nationwide in south korea until the low fertility rate problem is resolved.

in fact, since the 1990s, successive south korean governments have realized the severity of the low birth rate problem. therefore, various measures have been introduced one after another. especially in the past decade, both the central and local governments of south korea have introduced various welfare policies in addition to direct cash subsidies, such as extending paid maternity leave, allowing both parents to take maternity leave at the same time, issuing newborn "gift certificates" to families with children, and even encouraging civil servants. the ministry of health and welfare of south korea also clarified the development direction of south korea's childcare services in the five-year plan in the "4th medium- and long-term childcare basic plan (2023-2027)", focusing on providing comprehensive support and high-quality childcare services for infants and young children in the context of low fertility rates.

statistics show that since 2006, the south korean government has invested 360 trillion won in various subsidies to encourage childbirth. currently, the yoon seok-yeol government is also concentrating policy efforts in three core areas: balancing work and family, child rearing and housing to solve population problems.