foreign media: it is difficult for germany to take on "special responsibilities" for europe
2024-08-29
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according to the final confirmed data released by the german federal statistical office on the 27th local time, germany's gross domestic product (gdp) shrank by 0.1% in the second quarter of this year compared with the previous quarter.
△ screenshot of the official website of the german federal statistical office
the day before, data released by the german ifo institute for economic research showed that germany's business climate index fell for the fourth consecutive month in august.
△ screenshot of the wall street journal report
the institute's director, fürst, believes this shows that "the german economy is increasingly in crisis."
the institute's expert wollrabe analyzed that due to insufficient orders in all industries, coupled with weak investment and consumption, the german economy has stagnated. after germany's gdp unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter, wollrabe predicted that gdp in the third quarter may decline further.
"there is not much reason for optimism at the moment," said volker, a senior analyst at baden-württemberg landesbank. he cited factors such as global economic turmoil, geopolitical risks and the u.s. presidential election in november, emphasizing that these factors could dash hopes that the german economy will improve by the end of the year.
△screenshot of reuters report
"germany is dragging down the entire european economy"
germany is the economic leader of europe and has long been a mirror of peace and prosperity in europe. however, today, this mirror has become increasingly mottled.
since the full escalation of the ukrainian crisis, as the west has continued to increase sanctions on russia, germany, which has blindly followed the united states, has been the first to suffer backlash.
some media have particularly emphasized the "energy factor": germany's historical dependence on russian natural gas has proved to be its fatal weakness, and the energy crisis caused by the energy embargo on russia that began in 2022 has hit german industry hard.
△cnn: overall, germany's industrial production, which is mainly based on manufacturing, shrank by 2% last year.
germany's gdp accounts for 28.5% of the eurozone, while germany's industrial output accounts for about 27% of its gdp.
some european media pointed out that although the european economy is growing, the pace is slow because the sluggish performance of germany and its entire industrial sector has dragged down the european economy.
an article in spain's el país said that from once being europe's locomotive to today's laggard, the german economy has been in a state of stagnation or even regression in the past two years.
“it is caught in the middle of various changes and crises. chief among them is the forced abandonment of russian gas, which has severely hampered germany’s important manufacturing sector.”
△ screenshot of the report from spain's el país
what's even more serious is that with the prolongation of the ukrainian crisis and the increasing uncertainty of the us political direction, european countries such as germany, which have gradually taken on the main responsibility of "supporting ukraine and containing russia", are facing the dual economic pressures brought about by the long-term aid to ukraine and the continuous rise in their own military expenditures.
germany is the second largest source of aid to ukraine after the united states. however, not only is the long-term support of the united states for ukraine in jeopardy due to the uncertainty of the prospects for the november election, but germany has also been forced to freeze its financial and military aid to ukraine overnight due to the sudden increase in financial pressure.
on the 16th of this month, the three-party ruling coalition consisting of the german social democratic party, the green party and the free democratic party reached a final agreement on the draft budget for 2025, deciding to cut germany's aid to ukraine by half next year, from the original 8 billion euros to 4 billion euros, in order to give priority to domestic spending needs.
△ screenshot of afp report
german media reported that given that this year's aid budget for ukraine has been exhausted and next year's aid plan has exceeded the budget, the german ministry of defense's request for additional spending will no longer be approved at the request of chancellor scholz.
this means that relying on its own finances, the german government will not be able to provide new assistance to ukraine in the short and medium term.
△ screenshot of the report from germany's frankfurter allgemeine zeitung
"the effects of german political failure are spreading across europe"
at last month's nato summit in washington, providing "long-term support" to ukraine became a key topic.
according to statistics, since the outbreak of the russia-ukraine conflict, nato countries have provided ukraine with approximately 40 billion euros (approximately 43 billion us dollars) in military aid every year, of which the united states accounts for half.
however, under the new situation where nato has to "unload the burden" for the united states, the financial prospects of the united states' european allies are obviously worrying.
△the quincy institute for statecraft in the united states published an article stating that although nato has always wanted to prove that its support for ukraine will not be affected by the us election in november, it is still unclear whether europe can assume more responsibility for aiding ukraine if trump returns to the white house.
another worrying "money" prospect is how to increase nato's defense budget while maintaining military aid to ukraine.
although the total military spending of nato countries other than the united states will reach the largest increase in decades this year, it is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve the above military spending targets as people in various countries increasingly resist. in fact, nearly one-third of nato member states still fail to meet the standard of 2% of gross domestic product (gdp) for military spending.
even greater challenges may yet lie ahead.
according to reports from multiple european media outlets, if trump wins the us presidential election in november and returns to the white house, he may demand that nato member states increase their military spending from 2% of gdp to the "us standard" of 3%, which does not include funds provided to ukraine.
this is a worrying signal for nato's european members, as even germany has only just reached the 2% baseline this year.
△ screenshot of report from the british newspaper the times
in addition to the endless pressure of aid to ukraine and military spending, germany, which has been devastated by the energy crisis and american protectionist policies such as the inflation reduction act, will also face the threat of additional tariffs once trump returns to power.
as germany's largest export destination, if the united states really escalates its policy, it goes without saying what it will mean for the already extremely sluggish german economy.
when german chancellor olaf scholz took office in 2021, he confidently stated that "germany has a special responsibility for europe." however, the british magazine the economist recently published an article saying that it is difficult for germany to shoulder this responsibility.
the article said that germany used to be the "star orbited by" other european countries, but now all people hear in brussels, the headquarters of the european union, are stories about germany's "incompetence."
"the internal bickering within germany's ruling coalition has made it increasingly complicated to deal with daily issues, and the effects of this government dysfunction are spreading across europe."
△ screenshot of an article from the economist magazine
