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Powell, a sudden revelation! An important speech next Friday

2024-08-18

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According to the Securities Times, on August 16, Eastern Time, Bloomberg quoted insiders as saying that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently attended a closed-door meeting with CEOs of major U.S. banks, encouraging them to cooperate with the Federal Reserve to avoid a years-long legal battle over the Biden administration’s signature capital plan.

Powell told the heads of major banks, including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and Citigroup CEO Jennifer Fan, thatThe public will have the opportunity to comment on key revisions to the plan.The conference was hosted by the Financial Services Forum, an industry group for big U.S. banks, and included the CEOs of the four largest U.S. banks - JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Bank of America.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Image source: Visual China

According to the latest news,The CEOs of the largest U.S. banks asked Powell whether the Fed would act independently of other regulators in announcing key revisions and soliciting public comments.

Some participants revealed that Powell left them with the impression thatThe Fed is likely to act independently of other regulators in announcing changes to the new rules. Powell mentioned the EU's implementation of the Basel Accord, noting that the EU version would increase banks' capital by 10% overall.

Powell’s comments to banks on the proposed capital rules were described as high-level and focused on how he plans to reach final rules, in part by seeking new public comments and publishing studies of the proposals’ impact, the people said.

Powell warns big U.S. banksThey should submit their questions to the Fed now to avoid litigation later.

Looking back, in July last year, US regulators announced a series of proposals for comprehensive changes to bank capital requirements in response to changing international standards and the recent regional banking crisis. The proposal requires that banks with assets of more than $100 billion must increase their capital by about 16%, and the eight largest banks in the United States need to increase their capital by about 19%.

The proposal, which is tied to the Basel III reforms that began more than a decade ago and has been called the "Basel III endgame," is said by supporters to be a solution to some of the problems exposed by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

But there was news recently thatThe Federal Reserve has submitted a revised plan to other U.S. regulators, which significantly reduces the capital requirements for large trading banks, and the increase in bank capital may be reduced from the initial 16% to as low as 5%. This move will greatly reduce the burden on Wall Street banks.

Currently, the financial market is focusing on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting to be held next week. Among them, the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will undoubtedly become a major clue of the annual meeting.

The Federal Reserve said on Thursday that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve at 10 a.m. Eastern Time next Friday, August 23. The theme of this conference is: "Reassessing the effectiveness and transmission of monetary policy."

The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is one of the longest-running central bank conferences in the world. Every year, participants from 70 countries gather to share different perspectives and experiences. This is definitely the "annual feast" of the world's central banks. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and is one of the most watched conferences besides the Federal Reserve FOMC.

This year's Jackson Hole Annual Meeting will be held from August 22 to 24 at Jackson Lake Lodge in Grand Teton National Park.

The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting has become a window for the Federal Reserve to hint at important nodes in monetary policy. The Fed Chairman often attends the seminar and explains his position on future monetary policy. Powell's speech continued the tradition of the Fed Chairman delivering a keynote speech during the three-day central bank annual meeting.

The Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates, and it is widely expected that the Fed will start cutting interest rates at its next meeting on September 17-18. However, there are still many differences on the extent of the rate cut. Although most economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, some industry insiders at some major Wall Street banks such as Citi and JPMorgan Chase predict that there may be a larger 50 basis point rate cut.

It should be noted thatIn recent years, the U.S. stock market has often experienced huge shocks around Powell's speeches at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. For example, in 2022, Powell's speech scared the U.S. stock market. In just 9 minutes, the theme of "pain" directly caused the three major U.S. stock indexes to plummet by 3% to 4% that day. The market was also turbulent in 2023, but it happened on Thursday, the day before Powell's speech. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its largest point drop in five months that day, and the Nasdaq fell nearly 2%.

Daily Economic News, Securities Times, public information

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