Why did Russia define the Ukrainian army's cross-border raid as a "terrorist attack"? Jin Yinan's analysis and comments
2024-08-16
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This article is transferred from [CNR Military];
Recently, the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border has suddenly escalated. After the Ukrainian army raided Russia's Kursk Oblast, Russia sent reserve forces, tanks, drones, artillery and air force to fight back resolutely, and evacuated tens of thousands of people from Kursk Oblast. At the same time, it launched "anti-terrorist operations" in the three states of Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk. Russian President Putin made a strong statement that Russia will resolutely respond to Ukraine's series of provocations in the border area. So,What is the purpose of Ukraine's sudden large-scale attack on Russia across the border? What impact will this incident have on the development of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?
On August 14, local time, Ukrainian soldiers drove a tank on a road near the Russian border (Source: CCTV Today's Focus)
Li Yue: Against the backdrop of a continued stalemate on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, Ukraine's sudden cross-border attack on the Russian mainland was indeed a surprise. Unlike Ukraine's previous high-profile announcement of a military counterattack, this action was only a few days after the Ukrainian army launched the offensive, and Zelensky publicly confirmed for the first time that Ukraine was "pushing the war to Russian territory." Sources said that this move was a "big gamble" by Zelensky, with the aim of eagerly reversing the situation in which Ukraine might lose the war. Some analysts also believe that this is Ukraine's "last resort" to increase future bargaining chips under the situation where Biden withdrew from the election and the prospects for Western military aid to Ukraine are bleak. Professor Yinan, how do you analyze Ukraine's motives?
Jin Yinan:Ukraine's main purpose in doing so is to "exchange land for land", trying to increase its bargaining chips in future negotiations by occupying land on the Russian border.Because from Ukraine's perspective, Russia has already occupied most of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson in eastern Ukraine, and previously occupied Crimea. Therefore, Ukraine believes that only by occupying Russian territory can it gain bargaining power in negotiations. The implementation of this military action, including Ukraine's subsequent performance, can prove this point.
In the past, Ukraine used missiles and aircraft to carry out cross-border strikes on the Russian mainland, and usually withdrew after the attack. But this time it was not the case. The Ukrainian troops entering the Kursk region of Russia, in addition to the field brigade, also had a large number of logistical support and attached forces. This proves that the Ukrainian army intends to stay in Kursk Oblast for at least a period of time to show its presence.
also,Ukraine also hopes to prove its strength to NATO through this military action.This shows that the Ukrainian army is still capable of entering Russian territory, and the weapons and economic assistance provided by NATO are worth the money.Maximizing political interests through military action is a major feature of the Ukrainian military's action this time.
On August 9, local time, Russian heavy armed forces entered Kursk Oblast (Source: CCTV Today's Focus)
Li Yue:After the Kursk region was attacked by Ukraine across the border, Russia quickly launched a military counterattack and continuously spoke out, vowing to make a firm response to Ukraine: On August 9, the Russian National Anti-Terrorism Committee announced that from that day on, the anti-terrorist action system would be implemented in the three regions of Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk; On August 10, Russian Federation Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev said that the Ukrainian army's attack on Kursk brought serious political and legal consequences. From this moment on, Russia's special military operations should have an open extraterritorial nature, and the scope of special military operations must also be extended to further places; On August 12, Russian President Putin held a meeting on the situation on Russia's southern border, emphasizing that driving Ukraine out of Russian territory and effectively defending the border area is the current priority. Professor Yinan, can you see the means and stages of Russia's counterattack from the above statements?
Jin Yinan:We still need to observe the development of the situation before we can draw a conclusion.At present, one thing is very clear, that is, Russia hopes that the situation will cool down as soon as possible.Russia is currently carrying out anti-terrorist operations in three states along the border, which means that Russia defines the Ukrainian army's attack as a "terrorist attack" rather than a military invasion, which are completely different. So from this point of view,Putin still has a back-up plan, and he is unwilling to make a final decision. If the Ukrainian cross-border attack is defined as a large-scale invasion of Russia, it will be difficult to explain to the Russian people. However, Putin has several advantages in doing so.First, defining Ukraine's military action as a terrorist attack can win sympathy from countries around the world, because the whole world opposes terrorism. Second, terrorist attacks are less severe than military invasions, and Russia is trying its best to keep a low profile on the matter. Of course, Russia also hopes to drive out the Ukrainian army as soon as possible through strong actions.
However, it is worth noting thatThe Kursk region attacked by the Ukrainian army is a region with very weak defense in Russia. Russia calls this area a "dormant war zone".In the past, it was always believed that no major war would occur here. The Russian side felt that Ukraine did not have the ability to launch an attack in this direction, so Russia's defense forces in this direction were relatively weak. The deployed forces were mainly some border guards and the Russian National Guard. The border guards lacked both reconnaissance means and heavy firepower, so their ability to resist the Ukrainian army was limited.
However, judging from the current situation, it will take time for Russia to mobilize military forces to such a "dormant theater", such as large-scale troops at the brigade level, and to build a combat command post.There is still a lot of room for improvement in the Russian army's combat effectiveness and combat capabilities.
Li Yue:Araudinov, the commander of the Chechen special forces currently fighting in the Kursk direction, recently announced that the Ukrainian military's operation was led by the NATO headquarters, and there were many French and Polish mercenaries in the Kursk direction. After this statement, speculation and discussion about NATO's personal involvement became more heated. Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, said in response to a reporter's question on August 13 that Ukraine did not inform the US of the relevant plan in advance, and the US "did not participate" in the Ukrainian military's operation. Professor Yinan, how likely do you think NATO will personally "get involved", and how will this incident affect the development of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?
Jin Yinan:At present, it is not so important whether NATO military personnel have entered Russia. What is important is that from the perspective of campaign and tactics, the Ukrainian army’s operation this time must have received information support from NATO.Before launching the offensive, the Ukrainian army knew that Kursk Oblast was a weakly defended area of Russia. Without NATO's information support, I believe that the Ukrainian army would not have successfully organized this operation. So from this perspective, it doesn't matter how many NATO troops enter Kursk, Russia, and NATO's information support for Ukraine is the bigger problem Russia is facing now.
The US claimed that it "did not participate" in the Ukrainian military's operation, but in fact it was just trying to distance itself from the matter and tell Russia not to target it. This also shows that Ukraine was taking a big risk this time.But in any case, Ukraine's actions this time not only increased its bargaining chips, but also to some extent undermined the prospects for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
After this incident, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs also responded to reporters' questions and reiterated the "three principles" for cooling down the situation. First, the battlefield does not spill over; second, the war does not escalate; and third, all parties do not add fuel to the flames. But we regret to see that, first, the battlefield has spilled over, spilling over to the Russian mainland. Second, the war has escalated. Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council, said that from the moment the Ukrainian army entered the Kursk region, all Russian military concerns in special military operations should be put aside. This is an escalation of the situation. Third, NATO is still adding fuel to the flames, which is very dangerous. So I think that at the moment,The situation between Russia and Ukraine will continue to develop in an increasingly complicated direction.
Reporter: Li Yue
