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The gold price driving framework has switched, and the global de-dollarization and central bank gold buying tide have driven the gold price center upward. Gold is regarded as a safe interest-free asset, while the real interest rate or exchange rate is the opportunity cost of gold. The real interest rate and the gold price trend show a significant negative correlation, which reflects the financial attribute of gold. According to the World Gold Council, in 2023, central banks of various countries will purchase a net of 1,037 tons of gold, only 45 tons less than the historical high in 2022. Among them, the central banks of China, Poland and Singapore rank among the top three in the world in terms of gold purchases.

In the short term, gold assets may continue to fluctuate in the short term due to factors such as weak expectations for the Fed's rate cut, the suspension of gold purchases by the People's Bank of China in May, the lack of further escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and the profit-taking of previous long positions. In the medium and long term, the world is facing a change that has not happened in a century. As a natural currency, the pricing paradigm of gold is not limited to the trend of actual interest rates. The value of credit hedging is highlighted, especially in the context of inflation stickiness, high deficits, and high debts in the United States. The medium and long term may maintain a fluctuating upward trend.

The number of ADP employment in the United States in June was 150,000, lower than the expected 160,000 and the revised previous value of 157,000. The number of non-farm employment in the United States increased by 206,000 in June, higher than the expected 190,000, and the previous value was significantly revised down to 218,000; hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations, lower than the previous value of 4.1%; the unemployment rate was recorded at 4.1%, higher than the expected and previous value of 4%. The global economy is on the rise in the long run, and the US dollar monetary policy is about to turn, and the gold price continues to be optimistic. This year, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut is still a high probability event, and the performance of gold assets continues to be optimistic. The CME Fed Observation Tool shows that the probability of a rate cut in September has increased from 66% to 79%.