2024-08-12
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Text丨Cui Luobin(Member of the South Asia Research Group) Shi Lancha (Expert on South Asian Issues)
Previous student protests demanding the abolition of the "civil service quota system" have escalated into a "people's uprising" against the Hasina government.8moon5On the 28th, tens of thousands of protesters stormed the Prime Minister's Palace in the capital Dhaka. Hasina and her sister fled to Agartala, the capital of Tripura in northeastern India, in the chaos and met with Indian National Security Advisor Doval.Ajit DovalCurrently, Bangladesh Army Chief of Staff Waqe Zaman (Waker-Uz-Zaman) confirmed Hasina's resignation. The military has met with major political parties in Bangladesh except the Awami League and demanded the formation of an interim government. How did "peaceful protests" turn into a "national revolution"?7What has happened in Bangladesh since the beginning of the month?15Will the "great achievements" of the past 10 years of poor management be wiped out? Where will Bangladesh go in the future? Can Hasina herself make a comeback?
2024Since the beginning of summer, students who have been desperate due to long-term unemployment have taken to the streets to demand that the Hasina government abolish the "discriminatory" government job quota system. They believe that the government job quota system is an "unfair system" used by Hasina to reward cronies and win over lackeys. However, this protest, which started out as a peaceful protest, eventually turned into an unprecedented desperate challenge in Hasina's ruling career.
In fact, the demonstrations had apparently subsided for a time, but sporadic bloodshed and violence reignited the protests until they eventually evolved into a massive "national revolution."8moon5According to official statistics, clashes between police and anti-government protesters have resulted in at least350However, according to sources, nearly1500The number of deaths far exceeds official statistics.8moon4Every day there is at least94deaths, including14Police officers.
8moon5On the 28th, the Bangladeshi authorities could no longer control the situation. Angry crowds stormed the Prime Minister's Office. Hasina fled to India in a hurry.15The 1989 rule of Hasina ended. According to videos circulating on social media, protesters also destroyed statues of Hasina's father, independence leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman; they also lay on Hasina's bed and looted everything in the Prime Minister's Office, even the fish in the kitchen refrigerator. On the eve of the Prime Minister's Office being breached, Hasina and her sister fled to Agartala, the capital of Tripura in northeastern India, in the chaos. After a short stay, they went to Hindon Air Force Base in Ghaziabad, India, to meet with Indian National Security Advisor Doval (Ajit Doval). Currently, Hasina has8moon6day1She went to London, England to spend her last years in exile.
The protests had shown signs of easing after Hasina ruled to drastically cut the quota system, but the bloody clashes on the streets have added fuel to the fire.7At the end of the month, under pressure from all sides, the Bangladesh Supreme Court rejected the order to restore the quota system and opened93%Government positions are allocated on a merit-based basis only to “freedom fighters” and their descendants5%positions, while tribal groups, persons with disabilities and sexual minorities receive the remaining1%The intensity of the protests had clearly decreased by then, as the curfew was lifted, communications were restored, and government operations resumed.
However,8moon1On the 28th, the Hasina government banned the Islamic Conference and its student branches and related organizations, which further escalated tensions. Protesters took to the streets again, demanding7Deaths during the month200More than 100 people demanded justice and put forward nine demands, including a formal apology from Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the resignation of eight ministers.8moon2In a new round of protests on the 28th, clashes broke out between police and demonstrators again, resulting in2The student group called for the resignation of Hasina and her government, and8moon3The government launched a "non-cooperation" campaign on Monday and urged Bangladeshi citizens not to pay taxes or utility bills and to close factories and offices.
Facing the student groups, the Hasina government did not choose the way of peaceful dialogue, but continued to suppress the protesters on a large scale through the police and other law enforcement agencies. First, the Hasina government used armed confrontation to disperse the demonstrators. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, once again imposed a city-wide curfew, and the government sent police to disperse the protests by force. During the conflict, the police used rubber bullets, sonic grenades, and tear gas, causing heavy casualties among the protesters.
The second is Hasina's party, the Awami League (ALBangladesh Student Union (Bangladesh Student Union)BCL) violently attacked the student group. This practice of bringing politics into the campus has caused serious dissatisfaction in Bangladeshi society. According to the Daily Star, after the protests escalated sharply, with the tacit approval of the police and university administrators, heavily armedBCLActivists wearing helmets and holding sticks directly attacked the protesting students, injuring hundreds of students.BCL Members also threw bricks and even petrol bombs at the protesting students.
Third, the Hasina government once again completely blocked the Internet and cut off mobile services. They believe that foreign forces incited anger among young people in the country through the Internet, which is the main cause of this round of conflict. Cutting off the Internet has caused a large-scale loss of communication across the country. All mainstream media in Bangladesh have stopped operating, and international flights and the financial industry have also been affected.
After Hasina fled, the Bangladesh military has intervened in the political situation, striving to maintain domestic order to the greatest extent possible.8moon5In the afternoon of the same day, Bangladesh Army Chief of Staff Wak Zaman (Waker-Uz-Zaman) made a public speech, confirming Hasina's resignation and saying that the military demanded the formation of an interim government. It is reported that the Bangladesh military has held talks with major Bangladeshi political parties except the People's Alliance and will meet with Bangladeshi President Mohammad Shahabuddin (Mohamed Shahabuddeen), but the interim government cabinet list has not yet been determined. In addition, hours after Hasina fled Bangladesh, Bangladeshi President Shahabuddin ordered the release of the former prime minister, the main opposition party Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNPKhaleda ZiaKhaleda Zia), and will also release all those arrested in connection with the protests.
The Hasina government's decision to send in troops to suppress the protests is widely seen as a turning point in its eventual downfall. In Bangladesh, the military is widely seen as being able to maintain neutrality and is therefore trusted and respected by most people. For example,2008In 2006, an electoral crisis plunged Bangladesh into political deadlock, until the military intervened to ensure elections could be held that year.12The event was held in August, and this approach to maintaining democracy has won widespread favor among the people. Although the Bangladeshi military has a history of launching coups and counter-coups,21Over the past century, the military has played a smaller and smaller role in public affairs, choosing more often to remain behind the scenes and exert influence covertly.
As the protests intensified, the Bangladesh Army was very cautious in its statements and remained neutral. But as a new round of protests swept in, the Bangladesh Army gradually became dissatisfied with the Bangladesh authorities - Hasina, who left the support of the army, was doomed to end badly. It is reported that General Waqquzaman, Chief of Staff of the Bangladesh Army,8moon4At a military meeting on the same day, it was emphasized that "the Bangladesh Army will always stand on the side of the people, safeguard the public interest, and meet any needs of the country." Mujib Mashar, South Asia bureau chief of The New York TimesMujib Masha) also revealed that dozens of former senior Bangladeshi military officers issued a statement calling on the military not to "save those who caused the current situation" and hoped that the military would cut ties with the Hasina government as soon as possible to avoid getting burned. In addition, former Bangladesh Army Chief of Staff Iqbal Karim Bhuiyan (Iqbal Karim Buyan) delivered a highly symbolic rebuke of Hasina, demanding the government withdraw its troops “immediately” and allow protests. “The protests have gained momentum not only because of the anger of the people but also because of the confidence that they know they can get the support of the majority,” he said.
along with8moon5The situation between Japan and Bangladesh was completely out of control, and the army had unsurprisingly "completely broken up" with Hasina. That afternoon, according to a report by New Delhi TV, the Bangladeshi military had given Hasina45In a hurry, Hasina did not even have time to make a televised speech to announce her resignation decision.15The political strongman of the year ended in such a mess.
The protests started as a student street movement, but eventually turned into a nationwide movement, which fully exposed people's dissatisfaction with Hasina's tyranny and nepotism, diluting the power of Hasina's rule.15The brilliant achievements made since 2000. The reputation earned solely by economic performance will naturally lose its persuasiveness in the face of short-term economic difficulties.
Under Hasina’s leadership, Bangladesh has rapidly transformed from the world’s poorest country to South Asia’s fastest-growing economy, with a per capita GDP ofGDPBangladesh’s per capita income has doubled in ten years, and the World Bank estimates that20At least2500The Hasina government has been instrumental in lifting 10,000 Bangladeshis out of poverty, using a combination of domestic funds, loans, and development aid to implement an ambitious infrastructure plan—costing29The billion-dollar Padma Bridge is the best example.
However, in the short term, high inflation, high unemployment, and employment difficulties have accumulated and erupted, seriously consuming people's patience. The underemployment of Bangladesh's youth is the root cause of this round of large-scale protests. On the one hand, affected by international imported inflation and the imbalance of Bangladesh's domestic industrial structure, Bangladesh is facing serious inflationary pressure and the gap between the rich and the poor is widening.2023-24Inflation in Bangladesh rose to9.73%,2011-12On the other hand, Bangladeshi youth generally have difficulty finding jobs. Data from the Bangladesh Statistics Bureau shows2024The number of unemployed people increased by about2410,000 people, a total of259The current size of the unemployed population in Bangladesh is as high as30001 million, accounting for nearly one-fifth of the total population.
Against the backdrop of increasingly prominent livelihood difficulties, Hasina's model of developing the economy at the expense of democratic values and civil liberties has become increasingly unbearable to the people.Hasina's re-election2014Year,2018Year,2024In 2016, Bangladesh's general election was widely questioned due to low voter turnout, electoral violence, and opposition boycott. Critics said:To some extent, the Hasina government has created an atmosphere of fear and repression, increasingly relying on "hard power" to maintain its rule, such as "forced disappearances" and "extrajudicial killings" and other tough measures.2018The Digital Security Law, implemented in 2017, has become a handy tool for the Hasina government to silence critics and stifle free expression, especially online.
Overall, the United Nations and many countries and regions have welcomed the change of regime in Bangladesh and generally respected the Bangladeshi people's independent choice of development path. The Deputy Spokesperson of the UN Secretary-General said that Secretary-General Guterres firmly supports Bangladesh and calls on all parties to remain calm and restrained and conduct a peaceful and orderly transition.
However, India's series of statements after Hasina's resignation run counter to the international community, highlighting its intention to distance itself from the issue. After Hasina resigned and left Bangladesh, the Indian Border Security Force immediately issued a high-risk warning for the India-Bangladesh border and sent additional troops. Mamata, the Chief Minister of West Bengal, called on Indian political parties not to make radical remarks against the Bangladesh national crisis. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar6The Indian government said on Sunday that Hasina had requested to go to India "in a very short time". This was the first official comment by Jaishankar since Hasina's resignation.
However, it is generally believed that the honeymoon period between India and Bangladesh will eventually end with the fall of the Hasina government.India is dissatisfied and believes that it supports the Hasina government. On the one hand, the Bangladeshi people believe that India has long supported the People's Alliance, infringed the voting rights of the Bangladeshi people, and damaged the sovereignty of Bangladesh: Bangladesh2014In the general election of 2017, India was frequently exposed for putting pressure on the opposition party;2018In the 2017 general election, India was suspected of "United People's Alliance manipulating the election and modifying the ballot";2024In the 2017 general election, India was accused of "facilitating secret negotiations between Bangladesh and the United States, and the United States led the international community to ignore the democratic issues of Bangladesh's general election."In addition, India's action of helping Hasina to leave after her resignation is indefensible.
On the other hand, India has been accused of using hegemonic behavior to force Bangladesh to make concessions in international affairs for a long time.For example,Editor of Meng New EraNurul Kabir (Nurul Kabir) wrote that the Indian government has repeatedly made things difficult for Bangladesh, which is located in the lower reaches of the river, in terms of water resource sharing.54There are 3 transboundary rivers between the two countries, but there is no other water-sharing treaty between the two countries except the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty.Teesta)53The issue of water allocation between the two rivers has not been resolved, and the negotiations on the Teesta River have continued.18Years later2024South Asia Dams, Rivers and People Network (SANDRPHimanshu Thakkar, coordinator ofHimanshu Thakkar) said that due to the lack of domestic pressure in India,Therefore, they have long monopolized the allocation of these water resources.
Secondly, no matter which political force comes to power in Bangladesh, "anti-India" and "anti-India" will become the main tone of India-Bangladesh relations for a long time in the future. With the fall of Hasina's People's Alliance, three political forces are currently rising strongly in Bangladesh: the main opposition party of Bangladesh, the Nationalist Party (BNPThe second is the Bangladesh Islamic Conference, which was banned by the Hasina government (Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami); third, the military forces that facilitated Hasina’s resignation and maintained the stability of the current Bangladeshi authorities.
And these three forces all have accounts to settle with India.BNPOn the one hand, the party, which has traditionally held an anti-India stance, has15After years in opposition, its anti-India stance remains firm.2024The "Quit India" movement that swept across the country at the beginning of the year, fueled by the party, is a true reflection of this. As for the Jamaat-e-Islami, due to its religious and ideological opposition, it will undoubtedly intensify anti-India and anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh. In addition, it is an objective fact that India has long regarded it as a "dangerous Islamic force."
As for the military, if we look back at the history of Bangladesh, every time the military returns to the public eye, it is closely related to India.1975For example, India was considered the main suspect in the bloody coup d'état when Sheikh Mujib, the father of the nation, was assassinated in 1989. At that time, the Bangladeshi army believed that the Awami League government had sold out national interests to India, making Bangladesh a vassal of India. For example, the Bangladeshi army established a "Guard Force" (Rakkhi Bahini)'s paramilitary force, which aims to weaken Bangladesh's armed forces, keep them divided and weak, and continue India's influence in Bangladesh, which led to the assassination.
Therefore, no matter which political force comes to power, the India-Bangladesh "honeymoon period" will end, and India will then face the long-accumulated anger from the Bangladeshi people.
For many Bangladeshis, Hasina's exile is undoubtedly a "new liberation", but it is bound to leave a huge vacuum, which may suck Bangladesh into an unknown area with an uncertain future. Therefore, the few days after Hasina's fall can be said to be crucial and may determine the future and fate of Bangladesh.
At present,BNPThe most likely to take power and return to power. First,BNPThe leader has returned to politics and his influence is growing. Currently, by order of the President of Bangladesh, Khaleda Zia has been released, and his son,BNPActing Chairman Tariq Rahman will also end his exile and return to Bangladeshi politics. Secondly, Bangladesh is more optimistic about a peaceful transition, and the military will gradually fade out of politics.Martial LawInstead of imposing military rule, the army is committed to forming an interim government to keep the country running, and will soon hold direct talks with protesting students and teachers to resolve the pent-up discontent. According to sources, the army plans to promote fair elections to produce a new government within a certain period of time after the overall situation stabilizes. Finally, the influence of radical factions has declined. Some radical factions demanded continued mobilization until power was transferred to students and working people and the entire power class was overthrown, but with Hasina's resignation, the goal of the movement has been achieved and the cohesion of the mass movement no longer exists.
In the short term, Bangladesh will need a longer time to restore stability and prosperity. Previously, high inflation, high interest rates, dollar shortages, high proportion of non-performing loans in the banking industry, and pressure to repay foreign debts have put Bangladesh's economy under severe pressure. Against this backdrop, the long-term economic shutdown has made Bangladesh's economy even worse and on the verge of collapse. According to the president of the Dhaka Foreign Investors Chamber of Commerce, the protests have caused Bangladesh to suffer more than100 The supply chain disruption has led to a shortage of input goods, pushing up prices and worsening inflation.500Export revenue of billion US dollars80%The above garment export industries have also been hit hard. Many factories7moon20The industry has been closed since the day it was shut down, with daily losses of nearly1.5In addition, due to the country’s85%The lockdown and curfew have almost devastated the livelihoods of workers employed in the "informal sector". Prices of some necessities have almost doubled, with low-income and middle-class families bearing the brunt.
In the long run, Bangladesh, as one of the few manufacturing economies in South Asia, will eventually turn around. From historical experience, countries based on manufacturing are often more likely to recover from turmoil. Although Bangladesh has long been criticized for its single industrial structure, it is more positive in restoring stability and prosperity than Pakistan, Sri Lanka and other countries in the region that have also experienced political turmoil. Bangladesh's long-term development momentum is positive. At present, Bangladesh's population is over1.71 billion, and is in a critical period of demographic dividend, that is, the working-age population (15-64years old)65.08%, and this advantage will not be affected by political turmoil. Taking advantage of the demographic dividend, the continuous infusion of labor has provided huge potential for Bangladesh's economic development. In recent years, Bangladesh's garment export industry, tourism industry,ITThe rapid development of industries, pharmaceuticals and other fields is a true reflection of this. Therefore, in the long run, it will not take long for Bangladesh to restore prosperity and stability.
In addition, the strategic competition between China and India over Bangladesh will gradually become clear with the fall of Hasina. For Bangladesh, to achieve economic and social development, it must rely on countries that are "really willing" to help them develop. In the future, China will play a greater role in Bangladesh's development process. Political issues will gradually give way to economic issues, and high-quality joint construction of the "Belt and Road" and deepening of China-Bangladesh capacity cooperation, trade exchanges, and cultural exchanges may become the main theme.8moon7On the 25th, a delegation of Bangladeshi diplomats visited the China Foreign Languages Publishing Administration, sending a clear signal to the outside world that Bangladesh remains friendly towards China and is willing to deepen cooperation.
As for Hasina herself, her "political death" is a foregone conclusion.Sajib Wazed Joy) revealed that Hasina has no plans to return to politics. He said he was disappointed that "she worked so hard, but there are still people who stand up against her." Hasina, who is in exile in the UK, may never have a chance to make a comeback. It is even unknown whether she can enjoy her old age in the UK. A bright future may not appear in Hasina again, but at least the future of Bangladesh is worth looking forward to.
(The article only represents the author's views. Editor's email: [email protected].)
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