What signal does Hamas’ election of a new leader send?
2024-08-10
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According to Xinhua News Agency, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) issued a statement on the 6th saying:Yahya Sinwar succeeded Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated a few days ago, as the leader of Hamas's Political Bureau.
Since the statement on the 3rd of this month that consultations on the selection of a new leader had begun, the decision was finalized in just a few days, which is in line with Hamas' past style of quickly selecting replacements after the deaths of several leaders.
But why was it Sinwar, rather than other candidates that had attracted attention from all sides? Does the fact that Sinwar, who is regarded as a hardliner, took over mean that Hamas will take a more radical path and a ceasefire in Gaza will be even more distant?Before answering various questions, let’s start with the elected candidate with white hair, black eyebrows and sharp eyes.
He knows Israel well.
Who is Sinvar?
Sinwar was born in 1962 in a refugee camp in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip and graduated from the Islamic University of Gaza with a bachelor's degree in Arabic.
In 1982, Sinwar, then 19, was arrested by Israeli authorities for his "Islamic activities" for the first time and was arrested again in 1985. During his second imprisonment, he met Yassin, who later became the founder of Hamas, and won the latter's trust.
In 1987, the year of the first major Palestinian uprising, Yassin founded Hamas and Sinwar soon joined.
The following year, Sinwal helped found the group's security agency and headed an intelligence unit.
In 1988, Sinwal was convicted by Israel for allegedly killing two Israeli soldiers and was imprisoned for more than 20 years. It can be said that he spent a long period of his life in Israeli prisons.
However, Sinwar did not waste his more than 20 years in prison. He learned Hebrew and could speak it fluently, and could read Israeli newspapers. He also became a leader in prison, leading his fellow inmates to negotiate with prison staff.
The Israeli government gave the following evaluation of the performance of the "prisoner" Sinwar: charismatic, leadership, extraordinary endurance, cruel, manipulative, contented, cunning, mysterious...
"He knows more about Israel than Israel knows about him," said a former Israeli army major.
Ehud Yari, a researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, interviewed Sinwar four times in prison.
In his eyes, Sinwal is "extremely cunning and shrewd, a man who knows how to turn on and off his personal charm."
Yari recalled that when Sinwar told him that Israel must be destroyed and insisted that there was no place for Jews in Palestine, "he would joke, 'Maybe we will make an exception for you,'" he said.
“He was also a brutal disciplinarian,” Yari said. “People in Hamas knew it, and they still know it, that if you don’t obey Sinwar, your life will be in danger.”
In 2011, Sinwar was released as part of a prisoner swap between Israel and Hamas.
After being released from prison, Sinwar's status in Hamas rose rapidly. In 2013, Sinwar was elected as a member of the Hamas Political Bureau in the Gaza Strip, and became the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip in 2017. This is largely related to his great reputation as a Hamas elder and the sacrifices he made while imprisoned in Israel.
As a heavyweight of Hamas, Sinwar has naturally become a thorn in Israel's side. His name frequently appears on the assassination list of Israeli leaders and has been listed as one of Israel's "most wanted criminals." But he has also escaped Israel's assassination attempts many times.
Sinwar is considered a representative of Hamas' hardliners and is known as the "Butcher of Khan Yunis".
At the same time, he was also considered by Israel to be one of the masterminds of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 last year. However, after the "Al-Aqsa Flood" operation, no one saw Sinwar again. His life and death were also considered a mystery. There were claims that he had been hiding in a hidden tunnel in Gaza.
Confirming dominance
It was previously reported that other candidates would succeed Haniyeh, including former Politburo leader Khaled Mashaal. Why was Sinwar finally chosen?
Some analysts pointed out that after Haniyeh's assassination, Sinwar was regarded as the most powerful Hamas leader; moreover, the introduction of hard-line figure Sinwar was also a strong signal and direct challenge to Israel, indicating that Hamas will continue on the path of resistance.
In this regard, Niu Xinchun, executive director of the Institute of Chinese Arab Countries at Ningxia University, believes that Sinwar has always been a powerful figure in Hamas who holds decision-making power. For quite a long time in the past, Sinwar has been the actual leader of Hamas. His election as the leader of the Politburo this time is actually a formal confirmation of his leadership. At the same time, in the past few months, Israel has attacked and killed many senior Hamas officials, including Haniyeh and Aluri, the No. 1 and No. 2 figures in the Politburo. In another sense, this has paved the way for Sinwar to become the leader.
However, Niu Xinchun believes that the choice of Sinwar is still surprising, as he was not among the previously reported popular candidates. This choice means that power within Hamas is increasingly concentrated in the military faction, radical factions and Gaza.
Hamas is divided into political and military factions, moderate and radical factions, and Doha center and Gaza center. Haniyeh represents the former and Sinwar represents the latter.
Since the outbreak of the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the power center has been increasingly tilted towards the latter, and the influence of the military faction, radical faction and Gaza has been increasing. Now, Hamas has officially confirmed the dominance of the military faction, radical faction and Gaza center through the power transition.
Is there still hope for peace talks?
Haniyeh, who was assassinated, was considered relatively moderate and pragmatic, while Sinwar was considered tough and radical. What impact will the change of power have on the development of the situation?
Some believe that this choice sends a tough and uncompromising signal, highlighting that Hamas will take a more radical line, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will encounter a more difficult opponent, and future ceasefire negotiations will become more difficult.
Niu Xinchun believes that it will not have much substantive impact. For example, in the ceasefire negotiations, Sinwar's taking over does not necessarily mean that hope is becoming increasingly slim, as can be proved by several signs.
First, from the murder of several Hamas senior officials to the announcement that Sinwar would replace Haniyeh, Hamas has not announced its withdrawal from the negotiations. On the contrary, it has stated that the negotiations will continue and is committed to reaching an agreement. This shows that the negotiations are in the interests of Hamas and will not change due to changes in leadership.
Second, the previous negotiations were actually led by Sinwar, including the temporary ceasefire agreement reached after last year's conflict and some concessions and compromises made by Hamas in the current negotiations, all of which were inseparable from Sinwar's will.
Third, after 10 months of conflict, Hamas has been greatly weakened and is powerless to fight back against Israel. After Haniyeh was assassinated, the outside world focused on how Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon would retaliate against Israel, rather than how Hamas would retaliate. Hamas actually has no power to fight back, and its cards are getting fewer and fewer. Ceasefire negotiations can be said to be the only card.
Niu Xinchun pointed out that although Sinwar is regarded as a hardliner and radical, he is not irrational and has a pragmatic side. Currently, for him, ensuring the survival of Hamas is the top priority.
"Sinwar is a pragmatist who switches back and forth between political negotiations and armed violence depending on the actual situation," said Hugh Lovatt, senior policy researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Niu Xinchun added that Sinwar's succession may make internal Palestinian reconciliation difficult, because his predecessor Haniyeh was considered relatively moderate and hoped to reconcile with Fatah, while Sinwar was relatively tough. In addition, who will take over the leadership of the Gaza Strip left by Sinwar is also a trend worth paying attention to in the future.
This article is from Jiefang Daily and Shangguan News. Any reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
Author: Liao Qin
WeChat editor: An Tong
Proofreading: Miss Pi
