2024-08-05
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Recently, Nvidia was reported to have delayed shipments of B200, and the market questioned the Blackwell supply chain delays.
A recent research report from JPMorgan Chase shows that Nvidia faces some challenges at the B100/B200 chip and package (CoWoS-L) level, as well as issues at the board-level design and system level.
Despite initial production challenges, Blackwell-related GPU shipments are expected to reach more than 4.5 million units in 2025.
The B100/B200 N4 die (GB100 die) had some challenges, primarily finding two identical dies in a B200 CoWoS package, which have very high performance (high-grade speed bins) and power thresholds. This may require slightly relaxing the performance thresholds of the product. However, the review did not reveal any issues severe enough to cause a major redesign or multi-quarter delay.
In addition, due to the low yield of RDL-based interposer/LSI manufacturing, CoWoS-L yield is still low and unstable (JP Morgan believes it is currently only about 60%, far lower than the 90%+ level of CoWoS-S). The CoWoS-L process has a graphite film for substrate-level heat dissipation, but some material deformation challenges also lead to some yield losses.
B100 may be phased out and replaced by B200A：The low-end product B100 will be replaced by the slightly lower performance B200A. B200A uses a smaller package to ease the pressure on CoWoS-L production capacity. The introduction of B200A will lead to an increase of 50,000 to 60,000 wafers in the demand for CoWoS-S in the next 2-3 quarters.
GB200 capacity expansion will slow down in the second half of 2024: GB200 capacity expansion may slow down in the second half of 2024, but is expected to expand significantly in 2025.JPMorgan believes that upstream shipments will start in the fourth quarter of 2024, but total shipments may be limited due to CoWoS-L production issues. Total GB200 shipments are expected to be between 400,000 and 500,000 units in 2024 (compared to the previous estimate of more than 600,000 units).
H200 shipments are expected to grow slightly in the second half of 2024(The demand will increase by up to 500,000 to 600,000 units).
Blackwell series overall shipments:Blackwell series GPU shipments are expected to reach more than 4.5 million units in 2025, but initial production capacity still faces challenges.
NVIDIA product line changes:NVIDIA will vigorously promote H200 servers in the second half of 2024, and shipments are expected to climb in Q3 2024-Q1 2025. Looking ahead to the Blackwell generation, NVIDIA will prioritize providing GB200 servers to hyperscale users, while enterprise users may turn to GB200A Ultra.
Production impact and supply chain impact:If GB200 production capacity cannot be increased as planned, hyperscale users may increase purchases of HGX B200 A and GB200A Ultra.
In this case, Hon Hai, as a major foundry, may be affected by short-term stock price fluctuations. Quanta, however, is relatively less affected due to its diversified product lines. Wistron and Inventec may benefit from the growth of the HGX series. Liquid cooling component suppliers Auras and AVC may face certain challenges if the GB200 portfolio declines in the future.
TSMC's revenue is expected to remain relatively stable, benefiting from the increase in H200 production in the second half of the year, offsetting the launch of B100.
Despite the yield issues, CoWoS-L adoption is expected to proceed as planned in 2025. Nvidia's increased demand for CoWoS-S may lead to supply constraints. Unimicron may experience delays in AI-related revenue recognition due to slow ramp-up of Blackwell and GB200 production.
The adoption of B200A is likely to accelerate the use of 12Hi HBM3e in the HBM supply chain.
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