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[Global Times Special Correspondent Chen Yang Liu Yupeng Global Times Reporter Liu Yang] The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced on August 3 that in the latest air strike on Sevastopol, the Russian Black Sea Fleet base on the Crimean Peninsula, a Kilo-class submarine was successfully "sunk" and an S-400 long-range air defense system protecting the base was destroyed. This news has not been confirmed by Russia so far. The US "Dynamics" website said on the 3rd that the latest satellite photos of Sevastopol showed that it had indeed been attacked. But even Western observers believe that although the Russian Black Sea Fleet has suffered repeated heavy losses, the situation in the Black Sea direction is unlikely to affect the overall situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

The submarine that had been severely damaged was sunk?

According to CNN on the 3rd, the Ukrainian military claimed that it had "sunk" a Russian Navy submarine in an airstrike on Sevastopol on the 2nd, "which is another major setback for Moscow on the Crimean Peninsula." The Ukrainian General Staff said in a statement that the submarine that was sunk was the "Rostov-on-Don" submarine, "it sank on the spot," "which once again proves that there is no safe place for the Russian fleet in the Ukrainian territorial waters of the Black Sea." But the Ukrainian military did not provide further evidence. The report said that if the news is confirmed, it would be Ukraine's latest blow to the Russian Navy. Kiev claimed that the Russian Black Sea Fleet had lost 1/3 of its ships, but CNN was unable to independently verify this claim, and the Russian Ministry of Defense did not comment on the alleged attack.

According to reports, the "Rostov-on-Don" is a "Kilo" class conventional submarine, which was commissioned in 2014. It has an underwater displacement of 3,100 tons and is one of the four submarines in the Black Sea Fleet that can carry "Caliber" cruise missiles. CNN military analyst Cedric Layton said that this Russian submarine equipped with "Caliber" missiles is a key target of the Ukrainian army, because the Russian Black Sea Fleet has widely used "Caliber" cruise missiles to attack important infrastructure such as Ukrainian power plants. However, after being attacked by Ukrainian drones and suicide drone boats, most of the surviving surface ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet have dispersed and retreated to ports farther away from Ukraine, and rarely go out to sea for combat. Only the submarine force is still launching cruise missiles and participating in air strikes on Ukraine. Therefore, Layton said, "Hitting this submarine is a big deal."

It is worth noting that the "Rostov-on-Don" was severely damaged in the Ukrainian air strikes last September. The Ukrainian Air Force Su-24 fighter-bomber launched the "Storm Shadow" provided by the UKAir-launched cruise missile, blowing a big hole in the submarine that was being repaired in the dock. At that time, public satellite photos cited by the British Ministry of Defense showed that it had suffered "catastrophic damage" and could not be repaired. But the Ukrainian General Staff said that the "Rostov-on-Don" had been repaired and recently tested in the waters of the port of Sevastopol. In this regard, the US "Dynamics" website said that public satellite images showed that a strange floating device consisting of two barges and a covered facility had appeared in the port of Sevastopol in recent months. It may be a temporary device for repairing submarines, and the latest satellite photos show that it was destroyed in the past 48 hours. The report said that it had been less than a year since the submarine was severely damaged by the missile. "It is questionable how likely it is to be repaired and have combat capabilities, but the Ukrainian army obviously believes that it is still a target worth attacking."

Russian air defense system becomes Ukrainian army's key target

The Ukrainian General Staff said that in addition to "sinking" the submarine, the air strike also severely damaged the S-400 long-range air defense system that guarded the port. Layton said that destroying the Russian long-range air defense system would help "open the door to the skies over Crimea" and allow Ukrainian fighter jets to attack more Russian targets. But Ukraine also did not provide any evidence.

The "Dynamics" website mentioned that there are various signs that the Ukrainian army may have used a new type of "Army Tactical Missile" (ATACMS) with cluster warheads. This tactical missile developed by the United States can be launched by M270 tracked launchers or "HIMARS".Rocket LauncherLaunched with cluster bombs, "when detonated on impact, they create a large number of fragments",Anti-aircraft missilesThe report said, "Although Ukraine is basically on the defensive on the battlefield, it can still strike targets deep in Crimea at any time. Ukraine said this situation will continue. This latest attack once again shows that Ukraine's attack on Crimea shows no signs of weakening."

The "Dynamics" website said that the loss of the S-400 system will further damage the Russian air defense capabilities in the Crimean Peninsula and cause a series of chain reactions. The reduction in the number of air defense systems means that the Russian air defense network as a whole has more loopholes, giving the Ukrainian army more opportunities to launch raids. In addition, since the S-400 air defense system has a wide coverage area, each loss of the system will cause the Russian troops deployed in the nearby frontier areas to lose air protection. Therefore, it has also become the focus of the Ukrainian army.

Some analysts said that the consequences of the air defense loopholes exposed by the attack on the Russian long-range air defense system are gradually emerging - the latest series of raids by the Ukrainian army have proved the significance of this tactic. The Ukrainian General Staff revealed on the 3rd that the Ukrainian army successfully launched a raid on the Morozovsk Air Force Base in the Russian Oblast, destroying the base's ammunition warehouse. The "Power" website said that the latest satellite images showed that the airport was indeed attacked.

Will it affect the overall battle situation?

As to why Crimea has frequently become a target of the Ukrainian army, Chinese military expert Zhang Xuefeng told the Global Times on the 4th that, first of all, the Crimean Peninsula is relatively far from the front line and has a certain depth, so the Russian army has deployed many bases there, which are high-value targets. In order to protect these bases, a large number of air defense systems have been deployed, which are also high-value targets in themselves. Secondly, the range of the Ukrainian army's "Army Tactical Missile" and "Storm Shadow" and other Western-aided long-range weapons can reach Crimea, and there are many high-value targets here. Hitting these targets can frustrate the Russian army from a military perspective on the one hand, and on the other hand, it can also have a good propaganda effect.

Although Ukraine has repeatedly claimed that it has dealt a heavy blow to the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Western observers almost unanimously believe that such a result can hardly be said to have "practical significance other than propaganda effect". The "Power" website mentioned that during the Ukrainian counterattack, the Russian army in the direction of Kherson in southern Ukraine was in a tight logistics situation, and once needed the landing ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet to transport supplies, but with the basic stabilization of the war situation and the Russian army's offensive, the Russian Black Sea Fleet's maritime supply line is no longer important. Today, the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet has actually lost control of the Black Sea, and the Ukrainian Navy has basically ceased to exist. Neither side can use the Black Sea to implement meaningful tactical actions. Therefore, even if Ukraine "sunk" the Russian submarine this time, it is difficult to say how much impact it will have on the overall situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

In contrast, the loss of the S-400 air defense system poses a greater threat to the Russian troops deployed on the Crimean Peninsula. At present, the Crimean Bridge is still the main replenishment channel for the Russian troops on the southern front. The Ukrainian army has launched coordinated sea and air attacks on it many times, and the S-400 is considered to be one of the key equipment to protect the bridge. If the S-400 in Sevastopol is destroyed in a new round of Ukrainian air strikes, it will not only mean that the air defense protection of the Crimean Bridge will be weakened, but also that other Russian air defense missiles deployed nearby may be subject to the same attack in the next step. In addition, by weakening the Russian air defense network, it also provides an opportunity for the Ukrainian Air Force to launch an attack using the newly acquired American F-16 fighter jets. The first batch of 6F-16Already delivered to Ukraine.