news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

After Hamas leader Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, Iran on July 31, the culprit and specific method of the attack, the impact of Haniyeh's death on Hamas, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the relationship between Israel and Iran, and internal reconciliation in Palestine, Iran's revenge on Israel, whether the Middle East will move towards a full-scale war, and the future trend of the situation in the Middle East have all become the focus of domestic and international public opinion. In my opinion, Haniyeh's assassination willIn the short term, it will increase regional tensions, but its impact on the Middle East situation will be limited.However, itsThe toxic effect cannot be ignored.

Two views on assessing the impact of Haniyeh's death

Overall, there are roughly two views on the impact of Haniyeh's death.

One view is that Haniyeh's death had a huge impact.The specific manifestations are that Hamas will return to radicalism, negotiations between Hamas and Israel will stagnate, internal Palestinian reconciliation will be interrupted, Iran and Israel will be caught in a cycle of revenge and counter-retaliation and even large-scale conflict. It cannot be ruled out that the scope and scale of the spillover of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will expand sharply, especially the escalation of the conflict between Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel. It cannot even be ruled out that the Middle East may move towards a full-scale war.

A few days ago,On the surface, the situation in the Middle East has indeed become tense due to the attack and death of Haniyeh.Iranian political and military officials, including Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, as well as members of the Iranian-led "resistance axis" Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthi armed forces have all vowed to retaliate against Israel; Israel is highly alert to possible retaliation by Iran and has taken comprehensive preventive measures; the United States has issued warnings of various retaliatory measures that Iran may take, and has taken measures such as suspending flights from the United States to Tel Aviv, the capital of Israel, and placing U.S. diplomatic and military agencies in the Middle East on high alert. At the same time, as the most successful product of Iran's "export of revolution" diplomacy, the recent conflict between Lebanon's Hezbollah and Israel has become more intense due to the "targeted elimination" of its senior military officials and Haniyeh by Israel, and a large-scale conflict between the two sides is on the verge of breaking out. This also provides a realistic background for the above view.

Another view is that the impact of Haniyeh's death was relatively limited.The core of their concern is that Iran and Israel will not go to a full-scale conflict because the "resistance axis" led by Iran has limited capabilities, a full-scale conflict is not in the interests of Iran and Israel, and the United States, a supporter of Israel, has no intention of expanding the conflict during the critical period of the election. The impact of this incident on Hamas, the overall trend of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and internal reconciliation in Palestine is also relatively limited. The author basically agrees with this view, but at the same time emphasizes the poisoning effect of Haniyeh's death on Middle East politics.

Haniyeh's death will not change the current basic situation in the Middle East

first,Haniyeh's death in the attack had limited impact on Hamas, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the trend of internal Palestinian reconciliation.

Although Haniyeh's death will cause some damage to the morale and leadership of Hamas,Hamas is a complete and resilient organization, and its organizational and leadership systems will not be damaged by the death of the political bureau leader Haniyeh.Its operational capability, especially its military operational capability, will not be seriously affected, and its military leader Sinwar is still leading Hamas's resistance against Israel.

Although Haniyeh's death will have a detrimental effect on the Hamas-Israel ceasefire negotiations, the ten-month-long Gaza conflict hasHamas and Israel are both defeated. The energy of the conflict between the two sides has been exhausted and is unsustainable. Ceasefire negotiations remain the general trend.

Internal reconciliation in Palestine is the result of internal divisions that have put Hamas and Fatah in a serious disadvantageous position in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and it has strong internal demands.Strengthening internal unity is a rational choice made by various Palestinian factions, especially Fatah and Hamas, after paying a heavy price, and it will not end with Haniyeh's death.

Secondly,Moving towards a full-scale war would be an unbearable burden for Iran, Israel and all related parties.

Since the outbreak of the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the conflict between the "resistance axis" led by Iran, namely Lebanon's Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthi armed forces, Iraq's Popular Mobilization Organization and Israel, has become a typical way for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to spill over.The direct confrontation between Iran and Israel has become the highest form of spillover of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the Middle East, and to a large extent has become the core factor determining the nature, scale and scope of the spillover of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

In April this year, Iran retaliated against Israel for the killing of several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials in Syria, resulting in the mutual missile launches between the two sides becoming the largest and most risky form of spillover in the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict. However, both sides still maintained the strategic rationality to avoid escalation and expansion of the conflict.

Israel's hunting down of Hamas leaders after the inauguration of the Iranian president is extremely serious in nature and extremely cruel in its methods. It is a despicable act of "killing two birds with one stone" against Hamas, Iran and its followers. It will naturally arouse the anger of the Iranian government and opposition parties, and they will continue to choose to retaliate by launching missile attacks on Israel, leading the "resistance axis" to harass and harass Israel, etc. However,In terms of Iran's current domestic and international situation, Iran will not lose its rationality and go to large-scale conflict or even war with Israel at the expense of the interests of the entire nation and country. As for the entire "resistance axis" camp, except for Hezbollah, which has strong military and combat capabilities and has close strategic cooperation with Iran, the capabilities of other organizations and the degree of obedience to Iran are relatively limited, and cannot support the need for a full-scale war with Israel.

At present, the risk of the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel expanding and intensifying is rising rapidly, but it is not the product of Haniyeh's assassination. Haniyeh's death is at most a catalyst.

The poisonous effect of Haniyeh's death on regional politics cannot be underestimated

First, the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran, the capital of Iran, will cause far more mental harm and even humiliation to Iran than actual harm. The hatred between Iran and Israel will increase sharply and accumulate.The confrontation between the two sides, as the main contradiction in the Middle East, will be strengthened and solidified.Israel's killing of Haniyeh in Iran is intended to strike Hamas, prevent ceasefire negotiations, and undermine internal Palestinian reconciliation. It also has the multiple effects of deterring Iran and its vassal forces, undermining the moderate president's internal reforms and diplomatic easing, and blocking Iran from improving relations with the United States. It also humiliates Iran's security capabilities and national dignity. This is a major event that affects Iran's dignity and even the foundation of its regime's legitimacy, and will naturally lead to Iran's counterattack and retaliation. Although the possibility of the two sides going to war is not great,The conflict and confrontation between Iran and Israel, as well as the increasing risk of retaliation and counter-retaliation, will have a huge toxic effect on regional international relations.

Secondly, Haniyeh was killed in an attack and there have been many assassinations in the Middle East in recent years.The assassination politics that had declined relatively after the Cold War has been revived in the Middle East and is even becoming popular.

In the history of the Middle East, assassinations and terrorist attacks have been the epitome of the dark side of Middle Eastern politics. In the Middle East, whether it is the kings of monarchical countries (Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq), or the presidents or prime ministers of republican and parliamentary countries (Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Israel, Yemen), or the leaders of non-governmental organizations such as ethnic and religious forces (such as the Muslim Brotherhood, the Kurdistan Workers' Party, Hamas, Hezbollah), there have been many violent tragedies in which leaders have been assassinated.

Since the assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1995, the politics of assassination has faded in Middle Eastern politics. However, from the assassination of Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard General Soleimani to the recent assassination of Haniyeh, the politics of assassination has quietly revived in Middle Eastern politics and is at risk of becoming prevalent.Assassination politics is often accompanied by such political deformities as the law of the jungle, power politics, and terrorism. This is definitely an ominous sign for the order in the Middle East, which has been regressing since the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

In short, Haniyeh was "deleted" by Israel in an extreme way.In terms of political reality and political ethics, the cruelty and filthiness of realist politics have been demonstrated again.The impact is naturally very strong, but itIt cannot change the basic situation in the Middle East.

"Middle East Wise Comments" is a column by Professor Liu Zhongmin of the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai International Studies University. It adheres to the combination of realism, theory and basic principles, and responds to real-life issues with the depth of history and theory.