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[Text/Ruan Jiaqi, Observer Network]

Recently, the top leader of Hamas and a senior military commander of Lebanon's Hezbollah were killed in attacks one after another. The rapidly escalating situation in the Middle East is stirring up global tensions.

On August 1, local time, the New York Times quoted a number of experts as saying that as concerns about the expansion of the Middle East conflict deepen, the United States, which is busy dealing with its domestic political farce in an election year, may not have the energy to avoid or even contain the conflict. Especially under Israel's "backstab", the United States, which claimed that it had not been notified in advance, has exposed its ability to lose control of the situation in the Middle East.

The report said that in the past few months, some foreign diplomats and analysts thought that at this critical juncture when the United States was in long-term political turmoil and internal chaos, countries such as China, Russia and North Korea would take the opportunity to take further action.

"But no one expected that it would be an ally of the United States that would do this," said Vali R. Nasr, a professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins University who previously worked at the U.S. State Department. "If the United States is seen as having no control, that's not a good thing."

On August 1, local time, Iran held a memorial service and funeral procession for Hamas leader Haniyeh in the capital Tehran. Visual China

On July 31, local time, Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the Hamas Political Bureau and the "number one figure", was assassinated in Tehran, the capital of Iran. Both Iran and Hamas pointed their spearheads at Israel and vowed revenge. Although the Israeli authorities have not responded to this so far, since Israel has vowed to kill Haniyeh and other Hamas leaders, the outside world generally suspects that the assassination was carried out by Israel.

Israeli media also reported that a source from the Israeli intelligence and security department revealed that Israel deliberately chose to assassinate Haniyeh in Tehran in order to put Iran in an embarrassing position. According to the New York Times, Haniyeh, who was attending the inauguration ceremony of President Pezerhicyan, was killed in Iran, showing that Tehran "is unable to protect its guests."

"This is an attempt to humiliate the Iranians ... and it marks another time that Israel has crossed multiple red lines," said Daniel Levy, director of the US/Middle East Project, a research group based in London and New York.

The New York Times quoted analysts as saying that the reason why Israel is so "audacious" is that, on the one hand, Israel is dissatisfied with the West's failure to further curb Iran's nuclear program, and they want to stir up trouble and take the opportunity to attack Iran's nuclear facilities; on the other hand, Israel has noticed that the domestic political chaos in the United States is too chaotic to deal with, and believes that this is an opportunity for action.

The report mentioned that last week, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu went to the United States to give a speech. Although he was boycotted by dozens of Democrats, Harris, who replaced Biden as the new Democratic presidential candidate, also used stronger words to express her attitude of speaking for innocent civilians in Gaza. However, Netanyahu did not seem to be "scared". Instead, he witnessed a country with abnormal political turmoil.

Analysts believe that Netanyahu is a keen observer of American politics and sees an opportunity to take action against Hamas and its supporter Iran in the political turmoil in the United States. "Maybe he thinks there is indeed a power vacuum in Washington, so now is the time to act," Nasr said.

After Haniyeh was killed in the attack, Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned and accused the United States of being an "accomplice of Israel's terrorist acts". US Secretary of State Blinken responded that the United States was "unaware" and "not involved" and that they had not received any advance warning that Hamas leaders would be attacked in Iran. The New York Times quoted experts as saying that this showed that "the attitude and opinions of the United States did not play a big role."

The report said that the assassination is exacerbating regional tensions, which means that US President Biden's diplomatic efforts, which have spent a lot of time and reputation trying to broker an agreement between Israel and Hamas to release the hostages, are completely in vain, and the United States may also be drawn into a direct conflict with Iran, which it has been trying to avoid.

A picture of a building circulated on social media, purportedly showing the place where Haniyeh was killed.

The New York Times stated that the assassination may also cause the United States to lose a new diplomatic partner in Pezhichyan. Although the new Iranian president is seen as a moderate reformer, it is difficult for him to have any diplomatic contact with the West after such a "close-up" attack.

However, the article quoted experts as saying that considering that Iran's supreme leader is still Khamenei, the president is regarded as Iran's second-in-command political figure and does not actually have the decision-making power over Iran's domestic and foreign affairs. His power is subject to the supreme leader, and Pezeshiziyan's importance should be discounted.

Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington think tank, tried to reassure the United States, saying that Pezerhiziyan "showed relative incompetence on his first day in office," but the outside world should not think that Iran would risk launching a full-scale war because of the assassination of Haniyeh. After all, it did not do so when the United States assassinated Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in 2020.

“Israel often humiliates Iran by assassinating high-level targets inside the country, but Iran’s retaliation has never stopped Israel from taking future actions,” said Sadigab. “(Because) Iran’s retaliation is aimed at saving face but cannot endanger the life of its regime.”

The report also mentioned that at the same time, European allies are generally worried about the United States losing influence in the Middle East, but they now have more troublesome things to deal with - leaders of European countries such as France and Germany are busy dealing with the rise of right-wing forces at home.

Even the United Kingdom, which has been following the United States on Israel policy in the past few months, began to drift away from the Biden administration after the Labour Party's Starmer government came to power. It has abandoned its opposition to the International Criminal Court's arrest warrants against Netanyahu and the Israeli Defense Minister, and discussions on suspending arms shipments to Israel have been put on the agenda.

The New York Times believes that with less than 100 days left before the US election, the series of crises breaking out in the Middle East are increasingly showing that the United States is incapable of avoiding this conflict, let alone containing it.

This article is an exclusive article of Observer.com and may not be reproduced without authorization.