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Text | Kaifeng

The changes in the top ten cities have always attracted much attention.

Since Nanjing surpassed Tianjin in 2020 and became the 10th city in terms of GDP for the first time since the reform and opening up, who can maintain the position of "goalkeeper" has become one of the biggest topics in the regional economy.

However, in the competition for the 10th city, the biggest challenger is not the old municipality of Tianjin, but two new dark horses in the East China New Area: Ningbo and Qingdao.

In the future, who can hold the position of the 10th city?

01

The battle for the 10th city brings new uncertainties.

Recently, major cities have successively announced their GDP data for the first half of 2024. The suspense of the competition between Guangzhou and Chongqing for the fourth city has resurfaced, and the competition between Wuhan and Hangzhou is fierce.

Nanjing, the "gatekeeper" of the top ten cities, is also facing new pursuers.

FirstNingbo surpassed Tianjin for two consecutive quarters, and continued to narrow the gap with Nanjing, and thenQingdaoCatch up, narrow the gap with Tianjin again, aiming atThe Second City of the NorthPosition.

Let’s look at Ningbo first. How far is it from Nanjing?

In the first half of this year, Ningbo's GDP reached 820.79 billion yuan, surpassing Tianjin's 819.12 billion yuan, surpassing Tianjin in semi-annual GDP for the first time.

In fact, Ningbo once surpassed Tianjin in the first quarter of last year, but was overtaken by Tianjin again in the first half of the year. It is worth paying attention to whether Ningbo can surpass Tianjin throughout the year this time.

At the same time, Ningbo grew by 5.4% year-on-year, and Nanjing grew by 4.4%. The GDP gap between the two cities isIt narrowed from 57.1 billion yuan in the same period last year to 39.9 billion yuan.

Judging from the full-year data, the overall GDP gap between the two cities has narrowed from more than 200 billion at its peak to less than 100 billion last year, and is expected to continue narrowing this year.

Looking at Qingdao again, how far is it from the second largest city in the north?

Since the reform and opening up, Beijing has been the largest economic city in the north, while Tianjin is truly the second largest city in the north.

Today, Qingdao is catching up.It is only one step away from Tianjin, and the gap with Nanjing is gradually narrowing.

In the first half of this year, Qingdao's GDP reached 797.867 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and the nominal growth rate reached 6.3%, ranking among the top among major cities in the north.

The semi-annual GDP gap between Qingdao and Tianjin narrowed from 33.4 billion yuan in the same period last year to 21.2 billion yuan, while the gap for the whole of last year was less than 100 billion yuan.

Moreover, Qingdao and Nanjing are no longer out of reach. Last year, the GDP gap between the two cities was about 160 billion yuan, but in the first half of this year, it was only 62.8 billion yuan.

The competition between Ningbo, Qingdao, Nanjing and Tianjin will only become more and more intense.

02

Why are Ningbo and Qingdao so powerful?

The reason why Ningbo and Qingdao are catching up is closely related to their city level and nature, and is also inseparable from the support brought by their port location.

First, Ningbo and Qingdao are not ordinary prefecture-level cities, and their urban levels are far higher than those of ordinary cities.

According to the book "China's Great Urban Changes", there are 15 sub-provincial cities in my country, including 5 independently planned cities: Shenzhen, Ningbo, Qingdao, Xiamen and Dalian.

Yes, just like Shenzhen,Ningbo and Qingdao are both sub-provincial cities and separately planned cities., enjoying the advantage of separate financial status, and existing on equal terms with the provincial capitals in their respective provinces.

In China, what a higher administrative level and more special institutional arrangements mean is self-evident.

A sub-provincial city means a higher administrative level, far exceeding the general prefecture-level city or even an ordinary provincial capital; while a separately planned city means higher financial control and enjoys some provincial economic and social management powers.

In contrast, whether it is Suzhou, the strongest prefecture-level city, or Wuxi, Foshan and Dongguan, which are among the top ten industrial cities, they are just ordinary prefecture-level cities.

Second, Ningbo and Qingdao both have the natural advantage of being super large ports, and are the beneficiaries of this round of major geopolitical changes.

In the era of globalization, whoever is closer to the port is closer to the international market, has the advantage of being one step ahead, and has the opportunity to expand the related manufacturing industry.

Ningbo-Zhoushan PortIt is China's largest port in terms of cargo throughput and the second largest port in terms of container throughput, and its overall strength is comparable to that of Shanghai Port.

Qingdao PortIt is the newly-promoted largest port in the north., cargo throughput and container throughput both ranked fourth in the country, and container throughput has surpassedGuangzhou Port, only one step away from Shenzhen Port.

On one hand, there is the positioning of Northeast Asia International Trade Center, and on the other hand, there are the institutional dividends of the SCO Demonstration Zone.

With the help of the inland transportation network created by "sea-rail transport", Qingdao Port is able to radiate to more areas such as Zhengzhou, Xi'an and even Urumqi.

Third, Ningbo and Qingdao are both major manufacturing cities, and industry is the biggest driving force for this round of stable economic growth.

To measure the manufacturing strength of a place, in addition to industrial output value and trillion-dollar industrial clusters, what is more important is the number of specialized and innovative "little giants" and "single champions" in the manufacturing industry.

little Giant,Known for its specialization, refinement, distinctiveness and novelty, Ningbo has a total of 352 companies shortlisted, ranking fifth in the country; while Qingdao has a total of 190 companies shortlisted, ranking at the forefront.

"Single champion",The market share of individual products ranks among the top in the world and is known as the "hidden champions". Ningbo has a total of 108 companies shortlisted, surpassing Shanghai, Shenzhen and Suzhou, ranking first in the country, while Qingdao has a total of 37 companies, ranking seventh in the country.

The difference is that Ningbo is known for its green petrochemicals, high-end equipment, auto parts and other industries, while Qingdao is dominated by smart home appliances, transportation equipment, green petrochemicals, etc.

However, both cities are major industrial and foreign trade cities, and are easily affected by production capacity cycles and the international economic and trade situation. It is inevitable that there will be fluctuations in future economic development.

03

Nanjing, how did you defend the 10th city?

In recent years, Nanjing has been in the limelight. First, it surpassed Tianjin to become the 10th city, and then the Nanjing Metropolitan Area was approved, becoming the first cross-provincial metropolitan area in the country.

However, in the two important tracks of economy and population, Nanjing is facing the situation of "having pacesetters in front and pursuers behind".

As early as in the 14th Five-Year Plan, Nanjing had set ambitious goals:By 2025, the permanent population will exceed 10 million, the total economic output will exceed 2 trillion yuan, and it will be promoted to a megacity.

Now that 2025 is getting closer, there is obviously some pressure for Nanjing to achieve this goal.

Let’s look at the economy first. Nanjing’s GDP reached 1.74 trillion yuan in 2023. In the first half of this year, it was 860.742 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, lagging behind the province and the country.

Economic trends of cities in the Yangtze River Delta

In the first half of this year, the biggest drag on Nanjing's economy was investment, which is mainly affected by real estate investment.

Among them, from January to May, the growth rate of Nanjing's fixed asset investment decreased by 14.2%, while real estate investment, which accounted for half of the country's total investment, fell sharply by 19.9%.

In the past few years, Nanjing was one of the hottest cities in the national real estate market, with housing prices catching up with Guangzhou. Its dependence on real estate investment and land sales income was relatively high, so the impact of real estate market fluctuations was obvious.

Looking at the population,Nanjing has been lingering on the doorstep of the "million-population club", but its population growth lags behind that of Hefei, which has always been siphoned off.

In the past five years, Nanjing's permanent population has increased from 9.24 million to 9.547 million, an increase of only 300,000 people; while during the same period, Hefei's population increased from 8.932 million to 9.85 million, an increase of more than 1 million people.

According to this trend, Hefei will be able to become a city with a population of tens of millions in the next one or two years, while Nanjing may have to wait until around 2030.

From the perspective of overall development, Nanjing's traditional pillar industries are steel, petrochemicals, automobiles, and electronics. These traditional industries are facing the pressure of reshuffle due to new technologies and new products.

However, Nanjing hasSoftware andInformation ServicesIndustryRanked among the first echelon in China and advancing towards a trillion-level industry,New Electricity (Smart Grid)The industry has been selected into the national advanced manufacturing cluster, and its business revenue has reached 400 billion yuan.

It should be noted that as a provincial capital located in a "bulk province", Nanjing cannot advance as well as the central and western regions."Strong Provincial Capital" Strategy；

With so many strong industrial cities around it, Nanjing is unable to become a unique industrial center and is faced with constraints from all sides.

but,Nanjing has advantages that other cities do not have:

The first is across Jiangsu and Anhui provinces.Nanjing Metropolitan Area, its sphere of influence expanded to the hinterland of Anhui.

Second, it has a strongHigher Educationand R&D advantages, and its double first-class universities and research institutes are on par with those in Beijing and Shanghai.

Third,New industrial layout has taken shape. The transformation of industries such as new energy, new electricity, artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, and new displays is moving forward steadily.

Of course, in the competition for the 10th city, no one has a leading advantage, nor does anyone have the confidence to crush similar cities for a long time.

You know, the shock waves caused by the game between major powers, the ripples brought about by geopolitical changes, the major reshuffle driven by a new round of scientific and technological revolution, and the transformation of cities from high-growth to high-quality development all make the future full of huge uncertainties.

We will have to wait and see who can ultimately establish themselves as the "goalkeeper" and go one step further.