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Text | Siku Finance, Author | Proton, Editor | Jiajia

"China ranks first in the world in the export of new energy vehicles, but why don't I feel the benefits of this wave of employment?" An Internet practitioner B told Siku Finance that unlike the Internet and real estate waves that once brought opportunities everywhere,The new wave of new energy vehicles does not provide society with as many job opportunities as imagined.

As a substitute for the domestic real estate industry, the new energy vehicle industry chain is extremely long and should have greatly boosted domestic employment, but whyThere is such a big difference between theoretical cognition and actual perception？

Traditional automobile industry, a reservoir of employment

In any country or region, automobiles are a pillar industry that provides a large number of jobs. Even a car company is like a city.

According to data: The automobile industry represented by Honda and Toyota will achieve 12.69 trillion yen in 2023, contributing 10% of Japan's GDP and 40%-50% of industrial output value.

at the same time,The capital-intensive, technology-intensive, and labor-intensive automobile industry can generate a large number of jobs in the region.。

Currently, the average annual salary in Japan's automobile industry has reached 330,000 yen, and the number of direct jobs it can provide across Japan has reached about 5.5 million. Based on a family of three, the number of households served by Japan's automobile industry is only 16 million, accounting for 29.4% of the total number of households in Japan.

It can be said that the automobile industry is not only the backbone of the Japanese economy, but also a safe haven for ordinary Japanese people.The spillover effects brought about by the development of the automobile industry are also very obvious。

In November 2002, Beijing Hyundai's first factory in Shunyi District went into production. Its annual production capacity of 50,000 vehicles contributed 8% of Beijing's GDP and 21.8% of the industrial added value of enterprises above a designated size.

Manufacturing can drive regional economic development, not just in one factory, but in the entire industrial chain, including the automobile industry cluster or even the automobile city formed with the OEM as the core.

It is understood that taking the Beijing Hyundai Motor Plant in Shunyi as an example, as the Beijing Hyundai Plant went into production, its spare parts suppliers also built factories in Shunyi District. By the beginning of 2005, more than 20 spare parts suppliers such as Yanfeng Visteon and Beijing Johnson Controls had built factories near the Beijing Hyundai plant.

ThisThe concentrated industrial clusters have brought a large number of jobs to the local areaIn 2011, the total value of the automobile industry in Shunyi District exceeded 100 billion yuan, providing 20,000 jobs, of which about 10,000 were local employees. In that year, the total number of manufacturing employees in Shunyi was 193,370, and the automobile manufacturing industry contributed 10% of industrial jobs.

The automobile industry's role in boosting the economy and absorbing employment is spread across the country. Cities such as Shiyan, Baoding, Changchun and Liuzhou are all built on the basis of the automobile industry.

In the new energy era, domestic car companies usher in a new era

Due to their late start and backward technology, domestic car companies have long been trapped by foreign-funded enterprises in the fields of engines, gearboxes, chassis, etc., and could only establish joint ventures and exchange technology growth for the market.

However, with the emergence of new energy and the strong performance of CATL and BYD in the field of power batteries, domestic automakers have been provided with opportunities to overtake others. Two data directly reflect the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicles:

First, the recognition of new energy vehicles in ChinaAccording to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: In the first half of 2024, domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 4.929 million and 4.944 million respectively, up 30.1% and 32% year-on-year respectively, and the market share further increased to 35.2%.

Compared with previous years, Chinese people are no longer wary of new energy vehicles. Instead, due to factors such as low later costs and good configuration, they consider new energy vehicles as the main target when choosing or changing cars.

Second, domestically produced cars began to be exportedAccording to data from the General Administration of Customs: In the first five months of 2024, the total import and export volume of automobile products in China was US$120.15 billion, and the export volume reached US$92.9 billion. In the first half of this year, Chery's overseas sales volume was 532,200 vehicles, and BYD's overseas sales volume in the first half of the year was close to the full year of 2023...

Domestic new energy vehicles are rapidly replacing traditional fuel vehicles, but more importantly, they are also reshaping China's automotive industry chain. According to Tianyancha data, as of the end of December 2023, there were 313,000 new energy vehicle-related companies in the country this year, a year-on-year increase of 38.18%. During the same period, there were 87 financing events in the new energy vehicle field, with a financing amount of more than 47 billion yuan.

China's new energy vehicles are knocking on the market door of traditional fuel vehicle companies such as Toyota, Ford, and Volkswagen. A forecast report released by consulting firm AlixPartners shows that in 2030, Chinese-branded cars will account for 33% of the global car market, which means that one out of every three cars sold in the world will be a Chinese brand.

Technical and productive factors determine the reduction of employment in new energy vehicles

The market landscape of traditional fuel vehicles is being reshaped, but this change has not brought about the expected changes in employment.

"In the past, once industries like real estate, e-commerce, financial technology, O2O, and new media became popular, they would provide a large number of jobs, but I haven't seen any in new energy," said a job seeker L to Sicku Finance. He originally wanted to enter the new energy vehicle industry, butThere are far more job opportunities than you might think。

In fact, there are many people like B who have doubts about the "new energy vehicle industry absorbing employment". Why is it that the automobile industry, which has such a long industrial chain and involves such a wide range of fields, has not effectively driven employment?

First, the recruitment categoryAccording to Zhaopin data, the recruitment demand in the automotive industry chain will increase by 5% year-on-year in 2023, of which the largest proportion isTechnical personnel of the three-electric system, electrical engineer recruitment positions accounted for 33.6%, and software development recruitment positions accounted for as high as 22.8%.

From the recruitment point of view, the proportion of pure technical personnel recruitment is close to 60%, whileThere are fewer job openings for marketing, operations, human resources administration, etc.The reason for this is that car companies are high-capital, high-tech industries, and companies pay more attention to product performance rather than users like Internet companies.

The second is the change in production methodsIn the past, the automobile industry needed a large number of workers, and machines only played an auxiliary role. However, with the impact of the upgrading of the manufacturing industry, automobile OEMs and upstream parts and components manufacturers have adopted a large number of robots for production. For example, a car company with an annual output of 100,000 vehicles only needs 170 robots andA small number of workers can complete production tasks。

Finally, the impact on the supply chainOne reason why the automobile industry is an employment reservoir is that it drives the aftermarket, automobile repair and maintenance, etc. According to Tianyancha data, there are 616,000 businesses in China with business scope including "auto maintenance, automobile after-sales, and automobile repair", of which 340,000 are individual businesses.

But compared with traditional fuel vehicles,The number of parts for new energy vehicles has been reduced by at least 10,000, without complicated mechanical movements, thisNew energy vehicles are not easy to break down，Compared with gasoline vehicles, its maintenance requirements are lower.This will cause a large number of mom-and-pop car repair shops to close down and go bankrupt.

In the past 20 years, the development of real estate and mobile Internet has supported China's economy and brought a large number of job opportunities. At that time, jobs were looking for people, not people looking for jobs. Graduates from top universities such as Peking University and Tsinghua University were more inclined to work in enterprises to create more possibilities. Now, as the growth of the Internet has peaked and the real estate industry is in a downturn, China is once again facing employment problems. Graduates tend to choose jobs with stability and flock to civil servants, careers and state-owned enterprises.

In fact, what society least wants to see is competition for existing stocks. Instead, it hopes that new industries can absorb these graduates.But with the development of artificial intelligence, machines replacing humans has become the norm, which raises a question: What should those who are replaced by machines and artificial intelligence do?