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Tencent News "First Line"

Author: Feng Biao

Editor: Liu Peng

"The US stock market is currently riding high. One of the biggest questions being discussed is whether the AI ​​bubble has surpassed the Internet bubble around 2000."

On July 20, at the Global Economic Forum hosted by the China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF) of Renmin University of China, Liu Yuanchun, President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, delivered a speech entitled "Differentiation and Its Causes in the Soft Landing of the Global Economy."

In Liu Yuanchun's view, the global economy has achieved a soft landing beyond expectations in the post-epidemic era, and the arrival of the AI ​​revolution means the full launch of innovative industries. At the same time, the unexpected development of AI is one of the reasons for the soft landing of the US economy.

However, Liu Yuanchun believes that if we cannot answer the current status and corresponding direction of U.S. technology stocks, it will be difficult to grasp the next direction of the United States. Particularly important among them is the judgment on whether there is a bubble in current AI technology stocks.

Liu Yuanchun believes that the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation is extremely unbalanced in different regions. The development of AI is also one of the reasons for the obvious differentiation and structural changes in the world economy, and the polarization effect it brings is even more severe than the previous round of scientific and technological revolution.

In his view, this polarization effect is more obvious between large and small countries. Specifically, the economic contraction of small countries is greater than that of large and R&D-intensive countries. Recently, the crisis of small countries has begun to be fully exposed; especially after the first year of AI, the new economic phenomenon of superpowers has begun to emerge; on the contrary, the problems of many small economies, mainly Pacific island countries, have begun to emerge.

Regarding the future trend of the world economy, Liu Yuanchun predicts that the differentiation will accelerate. As for the United States, Liu Yuanchun believes that its savings rate has fallen to a historical low, the yield on government bonds has risen significantly, and the corresponding parameters of commercial real estate have also experienced a series of changes that are difficult to sustain.

Based on these three factors, Liu Yuanchun believes that the current soft landing of the United States is short-lived. In addition, the current deterioration of global geopolitics has just begun, and the foundation for a soft landing is very fragile.

In terms of global supply chains and industrial chains, Liu Yuanchun believes that although the curtain of reconstruction has been raised, a stable pattern has not yet been formed. Specifically, the original global supply chain was a new triangle, that is, the United States, China, Germany and Japan, and now it is a quadrilateral variant.

Therefore, Liu Yuanchun believes that this fragile soft landing will continue to differentiate, and in the process of differentiation, there will be plate formation and group formation, and it is possible to transition from a new triangle to a new state of a world parallel body with intersections. If the United States cannot control it well, if the United States collapses, then we may enter a jungle world.

However, Liu Yuanchun believes that the macroeconomic policies of the United States to achieve a soft landing of the economy deserve attention. Because the common macroeconomic common sense is that a rapid interest rate hike is likely to lead to a hard landing, that is, inflation is indeed controlled, but there may be a recession. However, the United States and major economies have not seen the expected sharp contraction in inflation control in recent years.

Liu Yuanchun explained that expectation management is very important. He gave an example, saying that in the United StatesSilicon Valley BankWhen a series of turmoil occurred, such as the problems in the UK, the pension problems in the UK, and the Credit Suisse problems in Switzerland, all crisis responses and macro-controls were responded to and decided at the first time, so that the confidence of the market could be stabilized in the short term, thus forming a corresponding stable expectation anchor.

How to stabilize expectations? Liu Yuanchun believes that the simplest way is to adopt a rule-based and transparent approach.