news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

Liu Xiaolin, reporter of Economic Observer These days, news about Baidu's driverless taxi (Robotaxi) Luobo Kuaipao continues to be a hot search on social platforms. In short, Luobo Kuaipao conducted a breakthrough experiment in Wuhan, which, after four months, staged the first small-scale impact of artificial intelligence on the existing labor structure and business model.

Smart electric vehicles are the fastest and most widely used carriers of artificial intelligence in the manufacturing industry, which will inevitably bring structural changes to the industrial economy. In fact, its impact on the automotive industry chain has continued for several years. However, the implementation of driverless cars in shared travel will inevitably bring a more direct impact on travel consumption patterns.

The reason why driverless cars first started in the shared travel sector is to collect data through small-scale, high-frequency applications, and gradually improve the safety and reliability of autonomous driving technology through continuous testing and data accumulation. At the same time, it also gives the public a process of contact and familiarity. Objectively, we can also wait for the "vehicle-road-cloud" intelligent transportation network system to be completed.

Before the incident in Wuhan, Turnip Run had been tested for five years, with pilot operations in 11 cities across the country, some paid and some free. In the eyes of the public, these tests were Baidu's regular investment in a future technology, and driverless cars were still a long way from being fully integrated into daily life. Therefore, after a few years, there was not much splash.

In 2022, Luobo Kuaipao entered Wuhan. In February of this year, Luobo Kuaipao announced its first city-level commercial demonstration operation in Wuhan. One explanation for choosing Wuhan is that Wuhan, as a traditional automobile city, has a mature automobile industry chain, and also has artificial intelligence full industry chain resources such as Optics Valley. Another explanation is that Hubei is the province with the highest traffic accident rate in the country, and Wuhan drivers are notoriously tough. If Luobo Kuaipao can take down Wuhan, then other cities in the country will be no problem.

Regardless of the considerations, the attempt of Turnip Run from local pilot to large-scale commercial operation has had an immediate impact on the business sector, and the people at the bottom of the travel industry have been hit even harder. This has also quickly turned the focus on driverless cars from a technical topic to a social topic.

One of the topics discussed is how long it will take for driverless cars to realize commercialization and large-scale application? From the policy point of view, this time point seems to be becoming clearer and clearer. Since June this year, the first batch of pilot enterprises for intelligent networked vehicle access and road access and the list of pilot cities for "vehicle-road-cloud integration" applications have been announced one after another. At the same time, many cities have accelerated the issuance of demonstration application licenses for driverless intelligent networked vehicles. In order to cope with the sluggish capital market, Zhijia Company released a prediction that "within five years, driverless cars will usher in a large-scale commercial inflection point."

Behind the evolution of the topic, the complexity of the leap from testing to commercialization of driverless driving is reflected, and this complexity may be far beyond imagination. Compared with the "progressive intelligent driving route" from L2 to L4 promoted by vehicle manufacturers on mass-produced vehicles, Robotaxi's fully driverless driving is a representative of leapfrog development achieved through artificial intelligence technology. At present, in addition to the policy level, the conditions that can ensure the full implementation of Robotaxi in terms of technology, funding, and usage environment are not yet mature.

Moreover, between policy support and actual demand, driverless cars need stronger consumer reasons to support them. At present, cheapness is the main reason why consumers are willing to experience driverless taxis. However, considering the high cost of driverless vehicles, the overly low charging model is not calculated according to the normal cost-benefit model, so it cannot be called true commercialization.

However, Baidu claims that Carrot Run will break even in Wuhan by the end of this year and will fully enter profitability in 2025. Intelligent driving companies including Pony.ai also generally expect that if the number of vehicles deployed in a single city reaches 1,000 in the next two years, they will be able to break even.

One of the purposes of autonomous driving companies to create a single pilot project that breaks even is to seek a larger pilot test scale and continue to attract the attention of capital. In the process of autonomous driving moving towards commercialization, profitability is only one of the hurdles. As for whether it can be applied on a large scale, it also needs to be considered from both the technical and social levels.

In a sense, the challenges from social acceptance and traffic legislation are greater than the technical challenges. The impact of driverless cars on Wuhan's taxi industry is just the beginning. The government and intelligent driving companies need to play a guiding and compensatory role in this impact, which has been noticed. The pilot test objectively leaves enough psychological preparation time for consumers and workers in the affected positions.

From the perspective of industrial technology, the advancement of autonomous driving in the field of shared mobility is unstoppable. In addition to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, many cities such as Hangzhou, Jinan, Qingdao and Fuzhou have already adopted an open attitude towards autonomous driving. According to the schedule of Zhijia Technology Company, the next five years will be the time when fully autonomous driving will become a reality.

Another "impact" brought by driverless cars should not be ignored. Take Wuhan, where people call "radish running fast" as an example, should driverless cars obey traffic rules or succumb to the driving habits of Chinese people? This should not be a compromise issue. If driverless cars eventually learn irregular driving habits such as "cutting in", then the original intention and technical advantages of driverless cars to reduce the accident rate will be lost.

According to the feedback from car owners in Wuhan, improving traffic, reducing accident rates, forcing drivers to change their wrong driving habits of ignoring traffic regulations, and ultimately creating an orderly and efficient travel order where everyone abides by traffic rules is also a major value of driverless driving.

From the perspective of economic restructuring and upgrading, artificial intelligence has become a track that China is bound to lead. As a competitive "heavy weapon" and a "weapon" to drive the upgrading of the huge intelligent industry, it is only a matter of time before unmanned driving finally moves out of the pilot test area and moves towards full commercialization. This time should be slow rather than hasty.

Copyright Statement: The above content is the original work of the Economic Observer, and the copyright belongs to the Economic Observer. Reprinting or mirroring is strictly prohibited without the authorization of the Economic Observer, otherwise the legal liability of the relevant behavior subject will be pursued in accordance with the law. For copyright cooperation, please call: [010-60910566-1260].

Liu Xiaolin, Department Director of Economic Observer

Director of Industry Reporting Department
Focus on the development trends, industry events, and corporate dynamics of the automobile industry; record the origin, rise, and outbreak of domestic new energy vehicles, as well as every new technological wave; and provide continuous coverage of autonomous driving, new car-making forces, automobile industry investment, capital operations of listed companies, and changes in automobile industry policies.