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the unstoppable enthusiasm comes not only from individual investors who are opening accounts, but also from overseas hot money!

according to bloomberg, as mainland china goes into a week-long holiday, traders are turning their attention to futures listed on singapore and hong kong stocks. the number of open contracts on singapore exchange's ftse china a50 index futures has soared to a record 1.2 million lots since china's national day golden week holiday began last tuesday.

in its latest research report on october 7, goldman sachs adjusted hong kong stocks to overweight, shifted its strategic preference from hong kong stocks to a-shares, and upgraded the insurance theme to overweight. a few days ago, on october 5, eastern time, goldman sachs announced that it had raised the chinese stock market to overweight and raised the target prices of the msci china and csi 300 indexes. some industry insiders pointed out that funds are flowing out of the indian market and moving to the chinese market.

blazing a50

since september 20, a50’s largest increase has exceeded 40%, and the increase in the past six trading days has reached 17%, while the increase in the previous week exceeded 20%. this level of growth and speed are rare in history.

since the start of the golden week holiday last tuesday, the number of open contracts on the singapore exchange's ftse china a50 index has surged to a record 1.2 million contracts. "the strong trading volumes reflect global investors managing their china exposure and adjusting positions before the spot market reopens," said ding meiyan, head of equity derivatives at singapore exchange group.

on september 30, china's a50 index closed at its highest level since january 2023, after recording its best single-day performance in nearly 16 years after china announced a series of measures to boost the economy. since then, traders have been using tools from around the world to participate in chinese assets ahead of the resumption of trading in the a-share market on tuesday.

while many global fund managers and strategists remain skeptical of the rebound, hong kong's hang seng china enterprises index has risen nearly 12% this month and is at its highest level since february 2022. it is worth noting that the number of open contracts for similar a50 contracts listed in hong kong increased by 18%, with a total of less than 16,000 contracts, far from reaching the peak. this may mean there is room to add to the position.

foreign capital has also rolled up

while a50 is rising, the rmb, which was still falling sharply during the long holiday, has also seen a significant improvement today. the offshore rmb surged over 300 points against the u.s. dollar today. at the same time, the u.s. dollar index is still rising. this means that apart from the u.s. dollar, only the rmb is strong among peripheral non-u.s. currencies today. behind this market situation, it may be that foreign capital is switching between high and low.

today, india's nifty index closed down 0.87% at 24,795.75 points. india's sensex index closed down 0.78% at 81,050 points. data from the securities and exchange board of india show that global funds sold a net us$101.7 million in indian bonds on october 3; according to exchange data, global funds sold a net us$1.85 billion in indian stocks on october 3, a record high. the chinese stock market saw $13.9 billion in capital inflows that week, the second highest on record.

in its latest research report on october 7, goldman sachs adjusted hong kong stocks to overweight, shifted its strategic preference from hong kong stocks to a-shares, and upgraded the insurance theme to overweight. on october 5, eastern time, goldman sachs announced that it raised the chinese stock market to overweight and raised the target prices of the msci china and csi 300 indexes; in terms of industry allocation, it raised insurance, securities firms, exchanges and other financial services to overweight. and maintain overweights on internet and entertainment, technology hardware, and semiconductors.

citigroup issued a research report and raised the hang seng index target by 24% to 26,000 points at the end of june 2025, and set the target at 28,000 points at the end of 2025 to reflect higher than expected growth in m2 and electricity demand. citigroup has raised its targets for the csi 300 and msci china index to 4,600 points and 84 points respectively in the first half of next year, and to 4,900 points and 90 points by the end of next year. citi upgraded the consumer industry rating to overweight, the real estate industry rating to neutral, and the internet industry maintained an overweight rating.

tomorrow, a-shares are about to open. judging from the current sentiment outside the market, there is a high probability that it will be a trading day with a large increase. investors who are reminded to pay attention to risks at this time will often be criticized. but it still needs to be noted that the faster the market rises and the more fanatical it behaves, the more rational it is to maintain a certain degree of rationality. although there is a high probability that the a-share market will not end in the short term, if positions are not well controlled, it will be more uncomfortable when a huge earthquake comes.