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on october 4, the trading volume of hong kong stocks fell back to hk$261.5 billion, rising 2.82% throughout the day to close at 22,742 points. during the national day holiday in the mainland, the hang seng index rose by more than 1,500 points within three days of the opening of the market, and broke through an important resistance position: the high point of 22,700 points in january 2023.

on october 7, without the participation of mainland hong kong stock connect funds, hong kong stocks will usher in the last trading day of the mainland’s national day holiday. the "great era of hong kong stocks" has begun again. referring to the trends of several "great era of hong kong stocks" in the past, how far can hong kong stocks go this time?

after hong kong stocks have risen sharply for nearly a month, as the long-short game becomes more intense, the market volatility will increase. next, investors need to pay more attention to changes in the fundamentals and turnover of listed companies.

the past three "hong kong stock market eras"

in the past three "hong kong stock market eras", the market has lasted for a period of time. the similarities are the upsurge of investors opening accounts and "buying directly without asking the price", and looking forward to mainland funds taking over.

in august 2007, there was a "hong kong stock through train". on august 17, the hang seng index rose from 19,386 points to 31,958 points on october 30, of which the turnover on october 3 was close to hk$210 billion; in april 2015, public funds could pass through hong kong stocks. by buying hong kong stocks, the hang seng index rose from 24,486 points on march 27 to 28,588 points on april 27, of which the turnover on april 13 was hk$263.6 billion.

the most recent one occurred less than four years ago: at the beginning of 2021, public funds went south to buy heavily. on december 22, 2020, the price rose from 26,119 points to 31,183 points on february 17, 2021. on january 19, 2021, the transaction volume exceeded 3,000 billion hong kong dollars.

"in a bull market that hasn't even had time to open, you may not even have time to eat instant noodles," a mainland account manager told china business news. hong kong stocks have once again ushered in a wave of retail investor account openings similar to april 2015. , hong kong securities firms also queued up to open accounts. what is different from that year is that the climax of a-share account openings 10 years ago arrived in december 2014, and the climax of hong kong stock account openings was delayed by half a year; but this time, the climax of account openings of hong kong stocks and a-shares happened almost simultaneously. on september 30, hong kong stocks the transaction volume exceeded hk$500 billion, a significant increase from the time in 2021 when it exceeded hk$300 billion.

the above three "hong kong stock market era" market trends are all based on these similarities: investors expect mainland funds to move south to take over the market, and investors "buy directly without asking the price". in the end, the mainland's funds to take over the market are not as strong as expected. in the context of excessive market enthusiasm, mainland regulatory agencies also took relevant measures that year: for example, they suspended the hong kong stock through train in 2007, and gradually reduced the leverage ratio of the stock market in 2015.

will mainland funds continue to sweep goods?

another "hong kong stock market era" started in late september 2024. first, on september 19, the federal reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points beyond expectations. the subsequent market rise was similar to the situation of a-shares at the end of september, both because of mainland monetary policies such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts. exceeding expectations, investors are eagerly looking forward to the introduction of fiscal policy.

in the absence of mainland funds on october 2, hong kong stocks still recorded a transaction volume of hk$434 billion and increased by 6.2%. the main force of buying on that day was overseas funds; in terms of individual stocks, some stocks whose basic factors were not good and their stock prices have been depressed for three years have experienced a single-day rise. there are even some "penny stocks" that have risen several times in one day, and there was a similar situation when they continued to rise on october 4.

some investors who bought hong kong stocks during the national day holiday in the mainland are expecting mainland investors to take over after southbound trading resumes trading on october 8. this is also one of the reasons for the irrational rise of some stocks.

regardless of the three hong kong stock market trends in 2007, 2015, and 2021, a large number of investors bought some hong kong stocks for the reason of being "cheap" and fell into the "cheaper" category, to the point where they did not know when the "cheapest" time would be. "in the trap.

after the hong kong stock market rose sharply by nearly 6,000 points since mid-september, its valuation is not as cheap as before. although it is not expensive, investors who want to continue to participate in hong kong stocks in the future should return to fundamental analysis and carefully select the fundamentals. only companies with strong performance can make investment returns more sustainable over a long period of time. the next three quarterly reports will be disclosed one after another and will gradually dominate the market trend of hong kong stocks. as the stock index rises, all boats are lifted. after some investors accumulate more floating profits, they may make more moves to cash out or adjust their positions. after mainland funds re-enter the market on october 8, the long-short game will become more and more intense, and the market will fluctuate. the magnitude will increase.

whether hong kong stock trading can once again break through the 500 billion hong kong dollar mark, or even reach a higher level, is also one of the important concerns of investors. one of the key factors in the past few "hong kong stock market era" transitions is that the transaction amount has not continued to reach record highs. the new high does not match the hang seng index which has been rising for many consecutive days.