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focus on: post-holiday performance of a-shares, press conference of the state council information office, china’s cpi, ppi, financial and foreign exchange data in september, us cpi and ppi data in september. in addition, jpmorgan led bank stocks to announce q3 financial results, tesla will officially launch robotaxi, and israel may launch an attack to escalate the situation in the middle east.

a list of major financial events in the week from october 7th to october 13th. the following are all beijing time:

this week’s focus: a-shares opened for the first time after the holiday, the state council information office held a press conference, china’s september cpi, ppi, financial and foreign exchange data, and the united states’ september cpi and ppi data.

in addition, jpmorgan led bank stocks to announce q3 financial results, tesla will officially launch robotaxi, and israel may launch an attack to escalate the situation in the middle east.

will a-shares get off to a good start after the holiday?

boosted by the policy "combination punch", chinese assets have been "exploded" in recent days, and a-shares will open for the first time after the national day holiday on tuesday (october 8).

during the national day holiday when the a-share market was closed, chinese assets continued to perform well, opening up room for imagination for the performance of a-shares after the holiday.

as of october 4, the cumulative turnover of hong kong stocks in three trading days was hk$41.963 billion. on the 4th, the hang seng index turned upward during the session and rose sharply in late trading to exceed 22,700, its high at the beginning of last year, setting a new high in two and a half years. the nasdaq china golden dragon index rose 11.85% this week, recording gains for the fourth consecutive week.

citic construction investment believes that with the introduction of the financial policy package, a-shares staged a "5-day miracle", and market sentiment quickly left the panic zone and entered the excitement zone in only 5 trading days. the current market sentiment has returned to the high zone after three years, and has returned to the excitement zone after four years. the current high investor sentiment means that the a-share market has entered a new stage.

according to reports, the shanghai and shenzhen stock exchanges conducted routine post-holiday network-wide tests today.

the state council information office held a press conference, and the national development and reform commission explained in detail economic hot spots

the state council information office issued an announcement today stating that the state council information office will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on october 8, 2024 (tuesday), inviting director zheng shanjie and deputy directors liu sushe, zhao chenxin, li chunlin, and zheng bei of the national development and reform commission to introducing the relevant situation of "systematic implementation of a package of incremental policies to solidly promote the economic upward structure and continuous improvement of development trend", and answered reporters' questions.

china’s september financial, inflation, and foreign exchange data

from october 9th to 15th, the national bureau of statistics, the central bank of china, and the state administration of foreign exchange will release inflation, financial and foreign exchange data from time to time.

china’s september cpi and ppi data

inflation data released last month showed that china's cpi rose 0.6% year-on-year in august, setting a new high for the year. the previous value was 0.5%, and the month-on-month increase was 0.4%. the increase was slightly lower than the previous value of 0.5%. year-on-year, the prices of seven major categories increased, five increased, one remained flat and one decreased, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 21.8% and pork prices rising by 16.1%.

the national ppi fell by 1.8% year-on-year, the decline deepened from the previous value of -0.8%, and dropped by 0.7% month-on-month from the previous value of -0.2%. the national bureau of statistics interpreted that falling prices in high-energy-consuming industries was the main reason for the month-on-month decline in ppi.

galaxy macro analysis points out that overall pig prices will show an upward trend in the second half of the year, but the probability of a sharp increase is small; at the same time, insufficient release of consumption power and low ppi will inhibit the moderate upward trend of core cpi. ppi still lacks recovery momentum during the year. it is expected that in the fourth quarter the year-on-year ppi center dropped below -2%, and the cpi maintained a moderate upward trend during the year, mainly due to the improvement of tail-off factors. the year-on-year cpi center in the fourth quarter is expected to rebound to around 1%.

china’s social financing, new rmb loans and other financial data in september

supported by government credit, china's new rmb loans and new social financing rebounded sharply in august. the financial "water squeeze" effect continued, m1 money supply continued to fall, and the negative scissor gap between m1 and m2 growth rates further expanded.

guojun macro analysis stated that the data characteristics of the credit structure in august did not change significantly compared with july, and the pattern of accelerated transmission of the private sector's "balance sheet reduction" remained unchanged.

guojun macroeconomics stated that residents' early repayment of loans is showing a "downgrade" trend, which is reflected in the significant decline in the early repayment rate of personal housing loans, while the early repayment rate of car loans is still at a high level. residents’ motivation to repair their balance sheets has not weakened; the relationship between residents’ motivation and ability to shrink balance sheets needs to be reasonably screened.

china’s foreign exchange reserves data for september

affected by factors such as exchange rate conversion and asset price changes, my country's foreign exchange reserves continued to rise in august, rising for the second consecutive month, but the month-on-month increase declined. china's central bank suspended its gold holdings for the fourth consecutive month.

on the evening of september 6, the world gold council released a report stating that in august, global gold etfs achieved inflows for the fourth consecutive month. in asia, there was a net outflow of gold etfs in the chinese market, ending its eight consecutive months of net inflows.

the world gold council said that overall, global gold market transactions remain active. the average daily trading volume of the global gold market reached us$241 billion, a slight month-on-month decrease of 3.2%.

u.s. cpi inflation data for september

on thursday (october 10), the u.s. bureau of labor statistics released cpi data for september.

data released last month showed that the cpi rose by 2.5% year-on-year in august, and the core unexpectedly rose to 0.3% month-on-month, the largest increase in four months.

as september's non-agricultural data exceeded expectations and released more signals of a "soft landing" for the economy, the market's expectations for interest rate cuts during the year have sharply converged. cpi data will reveal the latest effectiveness of the federal reserve's fight against inflation.

after the non-agricultural data was released, traders canceled their bets on a 50 basis point interest rate cut in november and expected less than 100 basis points of interest rate cuts in the next four fed meetings. bank of america and jpmorgan chase also lowered their expectations for the fed's november interest rate cut. the expected value was lowered from 50 basis points to 25 basis points.

ian lyngen, head of u.s. interest rate strategy at bmo capital markets, pointed out that if inflation proves to remain sticky and non-farm payrolls are relatively strong in october, the fed may temporarily pause interest rate cuts.

will tensions in the middle east escalate again?

on the evening of october 1, iran launched more than 180 ballistic missiles from its territory towards israel. alarms sounded in jerusalem and the israeli air defense system was fully operational.

according to the global times, on october 4, local time, a senior us state department official stated that israel has not guaranteed to the biden administration that it will not carry out retaliatory strikes against iran’s nuclear facilities. the official added that it was difficult to tell whether israel would launch a retaliatory attack on october 7, the one-year anniversary of the palestinian islamic resistance movement (hamas) launching a large-scale attack on israel.

as the situation in the middle east escalates, many countries have announced the temporary closure of their airspace. u.s. president biden said at a briefing on the 4th that if he were from israel's perspective, he would consider other alternatives to attacking oil fields. biden also said israel "will not make an immediate decision."

tesla officially launches robotaxi

on thursday (october 10), tesla plans to officially release robotaxi.

historically, tesla's important new product events will bring about significant fluctuations in stock prices. within a few days after the model 3 was unveiled in march 2016, tesla's stock price rose by 12%; after the humanoid robot optimus was officially unveiled at ai day in 2022, tesla's stock price fell by 16% within a few days.

it can be said that tesla’s stock price trend will depend on musk’s performance on robotaxi day on october 10.

to meet market expectations, tesla needs to at least ensure the implementation of physical robotaxi, plan to launch unsupervised services at least by 2026, and explain clearly to investors how tesla will commercialize self-driving taxis.

some analysts pointed out that robotaxi day is ostensibly an event to launch autonomous driving technology, but in fact musk needs to convince investors at this event that tesla is a "technology company" rather than an "automaker."

in addition to robotaxi itself, investors are also paying attention to whether tesla will launch a more affordable new model model 2 at this event.

other important data, meetings and events

a new round of price adjustments for domestic refined oil products will start at 12pm on october 10th.

the market expects that domestic refined oil prices may face upward pressure in october due to rising international oil prices.

since the beginning of this year, china's refined oil prices have experienced a total of 18 price adjustment windows, including 7 increases, 8 decreases, and 4 suspensions. after the gains and losses offset each other, domestic gasoline and diesel prices dropped by 215 yuan and 205 yuan per ton respectively compared with the end of last year, which is equivalent to a cumulative price increase of 0.17 yuan, 0.18 yuan, and 0.17 yuan for no. 92 gasoline, no. 95 gasoline, and no. 0 diesel oil respectively.

on friday (october 11), jpmorgan chase, the largest bank in the united states, took the lead in announcing its latest q3 financial report.

the last quarter's financial report showed that jpmorgan chase achieved the highest quarterly profit in the history of the u.s. banking industry in q2. after deducting gains related to the visa transaction, net profit was us$13.1 billion, or us$4.26 per share, which analysts expected was us$4.26. visa transactions contributed about $8 billion to the bank's q2 profits.

on the same day, blackrock, the largest asset management company in the united states, will also announce its latest results. driven by etf inflows and stock market gains last quarter, blackrock's aum reached a record $10.65 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 13% and higher than expectations of $10.2 trillion.

in terms of profitability, blackrock's adjusted net profit per share increased by 12% year-on-year to us$10.36, exceeding the market consensus of us$9.96; revenue increased by 8% year-on-year to us$4.8 billion.

take new opportunities

there was 1 new a-share subscription this week (october 7-october 11).

a total of 27 new funds (a and c categories combined) were launched that week, including 6 bond funds, 4 hybrid funds, 0 stock funds, 14 index funds, and 3 reits.