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the market suddenly ushered in a "bull market"!

on september 30, the major a-share indexes surged in volume, with trading volume in shanghai and shenzhen exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, surpassing the extreme value of the bull market in 2015 and setting a new record high. since then, hong kong stocks have continued to rise during the a-share market break.

cathay fund, china europe fund, boshi fund, xinyuan fund, debang fund and many other public funds were interviewed by chinese reporters from brokerage firms to interpret this large-scale rise in the market. looking forward to the market outlook, many public funds believe that driven by policy support and the restoration of market confidence, a more positive outlook can be made for the subsequent trend of the a-share market.

a combination of favorable policies is introduced, and the market welcomes a surge

regarding the market surge, many public offerings have interpreted it.

cathay fund believes that there are at least three factors driving the market upward:

first, the national day travel peak season was catalyzed and stimulated by consumption coupons in high-tier cities, with social service consumption-related sectors leading the way. the improvement of short-term micro-liquidity creates the basis for the market environment, and the combination of "consumer coupons + stable employment" in the fundamental dimension may leverage the potential of domestic demand.

second, market confidence has reversed, and the tmt growth sector has become more resilient, with computers that are sensitive to government finances benefiting most. fiscal expenditures slowed down in the early stage, and the computer industry's profits were revised downwards, with the decline reaching the bottom of valuations. the development certainty of xinchuang is relatively high, and fiscal policy will be more effective in the second half of the year. following the proposal to issue trillions of special treasury bonds in the first half of the year to stimulate demand in the field of innovation and innovation, the pace of advancement of innovation and innovation policies in the second half of the year has accelerated significantly, and the steady advancement of the localization process has become increasingly clear. under the guidance of policies, xinchuang has sufficient space and flexibility.

the third is the introduction of a combination of favorable policies, the market has entered a bull market mentality, and the financial sector has taken up the bull market banner. this week, the political bureau of the central committee and relevant ministries and commissions of the state council held intensive meetings and launched a package of favorable policies that exceeded expectations in response to the current problems in the capital market, real estate and economy. from the perspective of policy effects, it has effectively solved the problems of capital market liquidity and real estate stalling. the fundamentals of the non-bank sector are highly correlated with the capital market and real estate market, and have directly benefited from the introduction of a package of favorable policies.

boshi fund stated that on september 29, the central bank and the state administration of financial supervision issued four financial support real estate policies, involving adjustments to existing mortgage interest rates, lowering the minimum down payment ratio for second homes, extending the "financial article 16" and other policy deadlines, and optimizing the redevelopment of affordable housing. loan policy. on the evening of september 29, shanghai, guangzhou, and shenzhen issued policies to optimize the property market, releasing positive signals. coupled with the positive pmi data for september released on september 30, the manufacturing pmi rebounded from the previous month, the non-manufacturing and comprehensive pmi continued to be above the boom and bust line, and the marginal improvement in economic data also helped to increase market risk appetite. stimulated by multiple favorable policies such as continued favorable policies and good economic fundamentals, a-shares continued to rise sharply on september 30, with the shanghai stock exchange index rising by more than 8% and the gem rising by more than 15%.

vanguard fund said that the market surge on september 30 was a continuation of last week's strong trend. last week, the shanghai composite index rose by 12.81%, the gem index soared by 22.71%, and all major indexes rose sharply. the a-share market may have reached an important turning point and officially entered a reversal and upward stage. the continuous introduction of policies has provided the market with clear growth expectations and promoted the strong rise of the stock market.

xinyuan fund stated that due to changes in policy attitudes, monetary policy has been implemented, fiscal policy expectations are strong, and the market trend has reversed. after the release of the draft of the politburo meeting, the change in policy attitude will greatly enhance market risk appetite, greatly stimulate market confidence, and greatly alleviate market pessimism. the market has embarked on a large-scale upward trend.

furong fund said that on september 30, the market welcomed the final market in september. the gem index rose by 38% in a single month in september, setting a record for single-month increase. the shanghai stock exchange index rose by 17% in september. on the 30th, the major a-share indexes surged throughout the day, with the shanghai and shenzhen trading volume exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, a record high. among them, computers ranked high among shenwan's first-level industries with a growth rate of 13.24%. in the segmented fields, internet securities firms and securities it rebounded strongly. market sentiment is high and trading volume is rapidly amplifying. for internet securities firms and securities it sectors, equity market conditions themselves are fundamental forward-looking indicators. the increase in transaction volume and turnover rate has led to a reversal of expectations in the fundamentals of internet securities companies. the rapid expansion of transaction volume has also brought about the need for upgrades and transformations of the core trading systems of securities companies.

make a positive outlook on the subsequent trend of the a-share market

looking forward to the market outlook, many public offerings are currently relatively optimistic.

cathay fund believes that this round of policies will continue to be released and completely reverse the market trend. referring to the review and derivation of the extreme market conditions in december 2005, november 2008, february 2024, etc.: 1) in terms of time, the market lasts for a certain period of time on average; 2 ) in terms of space, there may still be room for a certain degree of rebound in the short term (repairing the gains relative to hong kong stocks/chinese stocks, repairing the valuation relative to overseas stock markets, repairing half of the high decline); 3) in terms of direction, we are optimistic about the risk appetite-driven super market rebound from declines (growth, brokerage firms) and the main line of recovery driven by mid-term fundamentals (consumption, real estate).

xinyuan fund believes that this round of rise will be roughly divided into three stages: rapid rise period, buffer period, and verification period. in the early stage of the rise, with oversold rebound and expected benefits as the main features, various industries generally rose in turn. this week's consumer, non-bank finance, real estate and other industries led the gains, while the traditional defensive utilities and petroleum and petrochemical industries lagged behind. after the buying enthusiasm is vented, the market will enter a buffer period during which policies are gradually introduced. industry selection is an important source of income at this stage. the last is the verification period of the performance data target. if the data is verified by then, and a higher expectation is given for next year's economic target, the market is expected to establish a reversal.

china europe fund stated that it can make a more positive outlook on the subsequent trend of the a-share market. after several consecutive days of gains, the stock market is returning to a reasonable value, showing the market's positive attitude towards policy response. it is expected that in the coming period, with the gradual implementation of policies and the advancement of incremental policies, the a-share market is expected to get out of the downturn of the past three years and enter a new stage of development. china europe fund believes that the future development of the a-share market will be driven by both policy support and the restoration of market confidence. investors should pay close attention to policy trends and market changes and make rational investment decisions.

deppon fund stated that the current situation is different from history, with trading volume accelerating under the continued catalysis of policies; although there are uncertainties after the national day, the path for overseas influence on the country is often through exports affecting the domestic molecular end, while interest rate cuts and other methods affect capital. flow path; currently, the factor boosting sentiment is more about fiscal policy stimulating the potential of domestic demand rather than external demand. the domestic market is significantly underestimated compared to overseas, so the risk has been significantly weakened during this year’s national day, and the market after the national day is still it depends on the domestic environment. residential funds are currently entering the market at an accelerating pace, even causing the shanghai stock exchange to crash for a time. securities account openings are also extremely popular on weekends. there will continue to be funds entering the market in the future, and the central bank has stated that it has 500 billion yuan of institutional swap facilities, 300 billion yuan of repurchases, incremental funds from increased holdings and re-loans entered the market. in terms of strategic operation, follow the trend and be firmly bullish.

hsbc jintrust fund believes that looking forward to the fourth quarter, considering that policies have clearly shifted, the flexibility of valuation restoration brought about by an expected rebound cannot be ignored. coupled with the current upward policy cycle of the capital market, measures such as promoting listed companies to increase dividends will improve the market's long-term internal capital supply and demand structure. the interest rate cut cycle and market demand for high-yield assets will increase the allocation demand for equity assets. the subsequent market is expected to continue the revaluation process. under the resonance of multiple factors, it is expected that market risk appetite will increase, risk premiums are expected to decline, and equity assets currently valued at relatively low historical levels are expected to undergo a revaluation.

in the short term, as the policy of stabilizing growth continues to increase, inflation rebounds from low levels, liquidity is abundant, market profits bottom out, and the investment value of low-valued procyclical sectors is more prominent. in the long term, the momentum of china's economy is being reconstructed, and new economic growth momentum related to "new quality productivity" will have greater long-term development space, which is a direction worth focusing on when equity assets are low. taken together, there are currently subdivided investment opportunities in both the new economic growth sector and the traditional procyclical value sector, and sectors that take into account long-term development space and profitability improvement flexibility are generally preferred. focus on the following directions: new productivity sectors that resonate with industrial trends and industrial policies: ai hardware, high-end manufacturing, medicine, etc.; procyclical sectors that benefit from stable growth policies: industrial metals, home appliances, etc.

editor: luo xiaoxia

proofreading: gao yuan