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on wednesday, october 2, the electric vehicle giant tesla announced its delivery and production data for the third quarter of this year. although this is the first quarter of this year that tesla has achieved vehicle sales growth, its quarterly delivery volume still fell short of market expectations. , fell 6.4% at the beginning of the session.

the next big event is next week's high-profile tesla "robotaxi" event on october 10, which is expected to showcase a dedicated robotaxi prototype and highlight the company's bet on new ai-powered self-driving technology. strategy.

data show that tesla delivered 462,890 vehicles in the third quarter, which fell short of the market estimate of 463,897 vehicles, but its vehicle production was 469,796 vehicles, which was higher than the market estimate of 465,828 vehicles.

deliveries during the same period last year were 435,059 vehicles and production was 430,488 vehicles. deliveries in the second quarter of 2024 were 443,956 vehicles and production was 410,831 vehicles. in other words, tesla’s third-quarter delivery volume increased by 6.4% year-on-year and 4.3% month-on-month, while production increased by 9.1% year-on-year and 14.4% month-on-month.

among them, the delivery volume of model 3 and y in the third quarter of this year was 439,975 units, which was higher than the market estimate of 435,920 units. the production of model 3 and y was 443,668 units, which was also higher than the market estimate of 434,051 units.

this shows that almost all of tesla's sales come from the smaller and lower-priced model 3 and model y, while only 22,915 higher-priced models such as model x, s and the new electric pickup cyber ​​truck were sold.

tesla's deliveries are the closest thing to its sales, making it one of wall street's most closely watched metrics. some analysts said that although tesla achieved year-on-year sales growth in the first quarter of this year in the third quarter, reversing the decline in the first two quarters, it was not enough to satisfy investors.

on the one hand, this means that the company must achieve a record high of 516,344 vehicle deliveries in the fourth quarter to reach last year's delivery level of 1.81 million vehicles. any shortfall may lead to tesla's first annual delivery decline. some social media netizens said that tesla’s sales fell by 2.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year.

at the same time, tesla achieved a sales reversal in the third quarter through price cuts and increased promotions, which will backlog its industry-leading profit margin. this indicator will be the focus when the third-quarter report is released on october 23. analysts had previously estimated that tesla’s average car selling price in the third quarter would be us$42,500, the lowest price in four years.

some analysts said that fierce competition from other car companies in the united states and china, as well as insufficient subsidies in europe, have dragged down tesla's delivery volume in the third quarter, while china's increase in subsidies for the purchase of electric vehicles has had a negative impact on tesla's sales. favorable.

a jato dynamics report shows that in july this year, bmw led the european pure battery electric vehicle market for the first time, defeating tesla, which continued to erode its market share. at the same time, tesla only produces pure electric vehicles and may be difficult to compete with traditional giants that produce hybrid vehicles.

dan ives, a well-known technology stock analyst at the brokerage wedbush and who has been bullish on tesla, continued to speak optimistically, saying that the delivery situation in the third quarter was "good and a step in the right direction." however, because investors have been hoping that the situation will be better, so the stock price is under pressure:

"overall, this is a significant improvement over the first half of the year, and we believe that reaching 1.8 million vehicle sales for the full year remains a key and important goal. market demand in china continues to heat up, and europe continues to slow down due to economic pressure, america is stabilizing.”

however, the bnp paribas securities department warned that the market's long-term expectations for tesla are somewhat too high, and the company's sales expectations for 2026 and 2027 are "still 10% to 15% lower than market expectations respectively." tesla executives have also repeatedly warned that the delivery growth rate in 2024 will be lower than last year.