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the a-share market experienced a strong rebound this week, with significantly active market transactions and increased investor enthusiasm and risk appetite. after the implementation of the major policies, the market outlook of the stock market has been favored by industry institutions.

on the whole, institutions believe that the conditions for the start of the mid-level market have been met. with the continued efforts of fiscal policy, it will help boost fundamental expectations and promote the gradual unfolding of the mid-level market in the stock market; in the bond market, there are no current reversal signals. it appears that despite the immediate short-term pressure, the general direction of downward bond market yields has not changed.

major events affecting the future investment market

china securities regulatory commission: classified policies to open up the blocking points for medium and long-term funds to enter the market

according to news from the china securities regulatory commission on september 27, the china securities regulatory commission recently held a party committee (enlarged) meeting to earnestly convey and study the spirit of the political bureau meeting of the central committee on september 26, and study and deploy implementation measures. wu qing, secretary and chairman of the party committee of the china securities regulatory commission, presided over the meeting and delivered a speech. the meeting stated that it is necessary to implement classified policies to open up the blocking points for all types of medium and long-term funds to increase their entry into the market, and to speed up the improvement of the policy system of "long-term money and long-term investment". persist in doing everything we can, further plan and timely launch more pragmatic and effective policies and measures on the investment side, asset side, and protection of small and medium investors to enhance the inherent stability of the capital market.

the central bank launches its first 7-day reverse repurchase operation after cutting interest rates

the central bank recently announced that the interest rate for 7-day reverse repurchase operations in the open market will be adjusted to 1.50% from the previous 1.70%. on september 29, the central bank launched its first 7-day reverse repurchase operation after adjustment: the central bank launched a 182 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation using a fixed interest rate and quantity bidding method, and the interest rate was reduced by 20 basis points to 1.5%. industry experts said that this policy interest rate reduction is the largest in the past four years and is an important manifestation of supportive monetary policy. it will reduce comprehensive social financing costs through transmission.

expectations for a fed rate cut continue to rise

recently, the federal reserve’s favorite inflation indicator, the august personal consumption expenditures price index (pce), was released. data show that the u.s. pce price index rose 2.2% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month in august. the core pce price index rose 0.1% month-on-month in august. industry insiders said that the slight increase in the aforementioned data highlights that the u.s. economy is cooling. interest rate futures traders see a slightly higher likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut by the fed in november than a 25 basis point cut.

institutional outlook on investment perspectives

haitong securities: the conditions for starting the intermediate market have been met

the policy mix is ​​based on the real economy and takes into account the capital market. in addition, the stock market was at a historic bottom in the early stage, and the conditions for the start of the mid-level market are in place. with the continued efforts of fiscal policy in the future, it will help boost fundamental expectations and promote the mid-level market in the stock market. gradually unfold. in terms of specific allocations, on the whole, undervalued real estate, consumption, medicine and other fields are expected to gradually improve their fundamentals under the background of fiscal policy, or become the main line of mid-level market conditions.

zhongtai securities: real estate stocks and downstream consumption may be the most important main lines

follow-up policies in the second half of the year may place more emphasis on economic growth, further improve the pertinence and effectiveness of policy measures, and strive to complete the economic and social development goals and tasks throughout the year. as far as investment is concerned, the cycle and consumption closely related to economic growth will be the main styles. real estate stocks and downstream consumption may be the most important main lines. the mergers and acquisitions and restructuring of central enterprises will be the most important "theme direction" after the subsequent "index establishment" .

huajin securities: arrange core assets and other main lines on dips

the current rise is still in its early stages and is mainly driven by major policies and external events. judging from the logic of the rebound, the logic of short-term valuation restoration prevails, and subsequent technology, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and small and medium-cap growth stocks in the cycle may make up for the gains. in terms of specific allocation, it is recommended to lay out three main lines for bargain hunting: first, core assets (consumption, electronics, and pharmaceuticals) that benefit from policies to improve expectations for economic recovery, supplementary growth, and foreign capital inflows; second, core assets (consumer, electronics, and pharmaceuticals) that benefit from policy and industry trends that are upward and may supplementary growth. computers, media, electronics, communications, cycles; the third is securities firms (including internet finance, etc.) and real estate that benefit from rising policies and sentiment.

vanguard fund: pay attention to investment opportunities in three major sectors

under the current policy conditions, three major sectors may benefit: first, central state-owned enterprises (including energy and non-ferrous metals) with dividend attributes, which are more subjectively willing to respond to market value management, and central state-owned enterprises have good qualifications and good credit, are expected to give priority to banks. obtain repurchase loan support; the second is the ai ​​and growth sector. with the recovery of confidence, the growth sector whose early valuation was suppressed is expected to usher in a round of valuation repair, especially the digital economy and ai-related sectors supported by fundamentals; the third is in industries that have seen a marginal improvement, such as large-scale consumption, the existing mortgage interest rates have fallen, which is expected to improve residents' balance sheets, and the large-scale consumer sector may have a structural marginal improvement.

hsbc jintrust fund: the fed’s interest rate cut may lead to changes in the hong kong stock market

compared with the a-share market, the hong kong market is more sensitive to changes in overseas interest rates. this round of interest rate cuts by the federal reserve may be regarded as the starting point for a change in the market structure. in the future, as long as there is no clear risk of recession in the united states and overseas in the short term, the transfer effect of funds among capital markets will bring opportunities. what overseas needs to pay attention to in the short term is the impact of the u.s. election on policy in the fourth quarter and the pace of interest rate cuts by the federal reserve.