2024-09-30
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shakespeare said, to be or not to be, that is the question.
for the recently established a500etf fund managers, whether to build a position (quickly) or not to build a position (quickly) is also a question.
especially in this bull market where stocks are rising by 3% every trading day.
whether you open a position or not, you have to take risks.
if you make a mistake, there will be consequences.
it’s really nerve-wracking.
the first batch of 20 billion funds has been fully raised
in the past september, the most popular fund product in the market was the csi a500 etf.
as the first batch of a500 etfs in the industry, a "big variety" visible to the naked eye, the first ten fund companies all "struggled" to sell at the highest level this year.
so, everyone saw it.
when market enthusiasm was at its lowest in mid-september, each of the ten fund management companies sold the a500 etf for 2 billion.
within 2 weeks, 20 billion capital "bullets" were prepared for the entire market.
individual investors participate more
in addition, there is not much "moisture" in this release.
looking back on the past 14 days, the 10 new funds "harvested" a total of 157,300 individual subscriptions.
based on this calculation, the average number per household is 127,000, which is considered the normal level in the industry (especially considering that many companies also purchase their own shares).
morgan stanley, wells fargo, yinhua, cathay pacific, etc., which have more than 20,000 subscribers, have better individual customer bases.
building a position becomes a test
investors are actively buying, and most of them see the possibility of the csi a500 etf becoming the chinese version of the "s&p 500" etf.
but the market that started on september 24 has given the industry another challenge.
should i open a position immediately?
and at what speed to open a position?
considering that the csi a500 index has been rising rapidly recently (the csi a500 rose approximately 15.37% from september 24 to september 27, pictured below), this decision is not easy to make.
several ways to open a position in a new fund
for newly established funds, the concentrated trading period in the early stages of establishment—the so-called position building period—is a very critical time period for their performance.
because the speed of position building during this period and the different combinations of market performance during the same period will greatly affect the fund's ability to outperform (or underperform) the benchmark.
for example, when the market is rising rapidly, the most appropriate position-building strategy is theoretically to build a position quickly, and quickly keep up with the market increase by increasing the combined position.
similarly, if it is a period of rapid market adjustment, the best strategy is to slow down the pace of position building, or even not to build a position for the time being, in order to outperform the falling index to the greatest extent.
however, the current market index is in a period of sharp rise, and large fluctuations may occur at any time during this period, which is particularly difficult for funds building positions to grasp the rhythm.
all a500 etfs have no published net value
looking back at the csi a500 etf at this time, we can also find a big test.
that is, when many "homogeneous" products are established at the same time, the position-building strategy will become the "winner" in "widening the performance gap" of the ten funds in the first round.
judging from the current situation, including the earliest established harvest csi a500 etf, the latest official websites of the ten funds have no net value release.
all roads are difficult to follow
generally speaking, the fund contract requires the fund manager to make the fund's investment portfolio proportion comply with the relevant provisions of the fund contract within 6 months from the date of the fund contract.
in other words, the legal "position opening period" is 6 months.
however, for etfs such as a500, fund managers often have stricter time limits for opening positions.
generally speaking, for this batch of csi a500 etfs, they have three position building strategies that can be adopted:
the first is to quickly open a position. the advantage is that the product can operate normally quickly. the test is that the market performance during the position opening period has a greater impact on the net worth.
the second is to build positions at a constant speed. this strategy is often used when market volatility is low. but when the market fluctuates greatly, you may face pressure from both ends. when the market rises, it cannot keep up with the increase in the short term; when the market adjusts, there will be fluctuations in net worth.
the third is to build positions slowly. this strategy means that the fluctuations in net value will be relatively stable during the position building period, but if the index continues to perform, it will be difficult for the etf to catch up.
it is really the so-called "all roads lead to rome, but all roads are difficult to follow".
the final strategic layout of this batch of a500 etfs is still very interesting.