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this past weekend, the central bank and the monetary authority issued four new policies, involving batch adjustments to existing mortgage interest rates and reductions in down payment ratios.

today (september 30) is the last trading day before the national day holiday. holding shares or holding currency is another dilemma faced by investors.

// the central bank and the hong kong monetary authority issued four new policies over the weekend //

on the evening of september 29, the people's bank of china, together with the state administration of financial supervision, released four financial support policies for real estate.including improving the interest rate pricing mechanism for commercial personal housing loans, optimizing the minimum down payment ratio for personal housing loans, optimizing affordable housing refinancing, and extending the period of some real estate financial policies, etc.。

in addition, the market interest rate pricing self-regulatory mechanism issued an initiative toin principle, all commercial banks should carry out batch adjustments to eligible existing housing loans before october 31, 2024.。

// hold stocks or hold coins for the holidays? //

in the past week, driven by multiple favorable policies, the a-share market ushered in a long-lost surge. the shanghai composite index rose as much as 12.81% in a single week, the largest increase since november 2008, the shenzhen composite component index rose by 17.83%, and the chinext index rose by 22.71%.

faced with the strong rise of a-shares, investors have fallen into a fierce battle between "holding shares and holding currency." some bulls believe that the market will continue to ferment after the holiday and advocate holding shares to celebrate the holiday. some may choose to settle down and lock in profits.

judging from historical data, the a-share market usually performs better after the national day holiday. there have been many “red october” markets in a-shares in october.csi 300 index sincesince its official launch in 2005, the performance in october has been generally stronger than that in august and september, with an average increase of 0.37%; in the following november and december, the csi 300 index performed better。

market performance on the first day after the holiday is expected to boost market sentiment. wind statistics show that,from 2011 to the first trading day after the national day in 2023, the probability of the shanghai composite index and the shenzhen composite component index rising exceeded 60%. unless there is a sharp decline in overseas markets during the national day holiday, or there is a major negative event, the probability of a-shares rising on the first trading day after the holiday is high.

in terms of industry performance, the five trading days after the national day holiday performed best, with consumption, growth, and cyclical gains leading the way. as the stock index rebounded after the holiday, the average return rate of most industries was positive.

//the market is expected to return in the fourth quarter//

everbright securities said that holding shares for the holidays may be a good choice in the future. on the one hand, historically, the a-share market usually performs better after the national day holiday. on the other hand,the current a-share market valuation is low, with high cost performance and safety margin, and now that the federal reserve has officially started its interest rate cut cycle, the constraints of external pressure on domestic monetary policy are expected to weaken, and domestic policy may become more active. in addition, judging from the recent performance of major asset classes, overseas investors are not pessimistic about the country. if domestic economic fundamentals and capital markets improve further in the future, overseas investors may become optimistic about the a-share market. therefore, as the national day holiday approaches, it may be a good choice to hold shares to celebrate the holiday.

china merchants securities believes that judging from the current situation, with the continued introduction of policies to stabilize growth and marginal improvements in economic data, economic expectations are expected to turn warmer.the fourth quarter is close to the start of the fed's interest rate cut cycle. combined with the seasonal appreciation of the rmb, it is expected to attract foreign capital to return to net inflows. the probability of blue chips returning is higher. the blue chip style of the market is expected to return to dominance in the fourth quarter.