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cross-market broad-based etfs are highly differentiated, bringing arbitrage space and also losses from falling premiums.

2024-09-29

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a rare trading anomaly occurred on the shanghai stock exchange. whether cross-market broad-based etfs will be affected is one of the focuses of the market.

the reporter noticed that the trading volume of some cross-market broad-based etfs fell back on friday. the closing prices of different etfs linked to some indexes in the secondary market varied greatly. 33 stock etfs had a discount of more than 2% on the day, and 123 had a premium of more than 2%. in addition, some broad-based etfs have experienced amplified deviations from tracking indexes.

however, market investment enthusiasm continues unabated. on september 27, there were still 1.204 billion net subscriptions for stock etfs, and many csi 1000 etfs received more net subscriptions. since the press conference of the state council information office on september 24, stock etfs have had a net inflow of 53.393 billion yuan in just 4 trading days. the current scale of huatai-berry csi 300 etf has exceeded 350 billion yuan. etfs also increased from 1 to 6 this week, and the number of products exceeding 10 billion increased to 25.

as of now, the latest scale of stock etfs has reached 2.41 trillion yuan, and the total scale of etfs linked only to the csi 300 is about to exceed one trillion yuan.

the rise and fall of etfs linked to the same index vary

on september 27, the shanghai stock exchange announced that after the opening of the day, the exchange’s stock bidding transactions experienced abnormal slow transaction confirmations, which affected transactions. subsequently, some media reported that due to the above-mentioned abnormal situation, the shanghai stock exchange conducted some after-hours matching transactions, and some valid orders that were not executed during the session were processed after the market opened.

in the etf market that day, the closing prices of different etfs tracking the same index diverged. for example, some netizens commented that their gold stock etf orders were not successfully canceled and were actually traded at the low point of the day.

a reporter from the financial associated press noticed that the six etfs tracking the csi shanghai-shenzhen-hong kong gold industry stock index had a head-to-tail difference of more than 1.6% in the secondary market on september 27, while the head-to-tail difference on the previous trading day was only 0.44%. . among them, two gold stock etfs listed on the shanghai stock exchange only rose 0.21% and 0.51% that day; while four gold stock etfs listed on the shenzhen stock exchange closed up more than 1% that day.

subsequently, the net value disclosed that day showed that the net value return of the six etfs that day was between 1.45% and 2%, which was far smaller than the gap between the rise and fall of the secondary market.

the above-mentioned gap also brings room for arbitrage, and the shares traded at discounts may subsequently receive benefits from discount repairs. however, on the other hand, due to abnormal trading, investors may also buy high-premium etfs, and may subsequently face losses caused by a fall in premiums.

wind data shows that on september 27, 33 of the market-wide stock etfs had a discount of more than 2%, and 123 had a premium of more than 2%. among them, the highest premiums were kechuang 100 etf enhanced and kechuang chip etf south for two etfs listed on the shanghai stock exchange, the iopv premium and discount rates on that day were 19.68% and 11.72% respectively. in the previous year, the premium rates of these two products did not exceed 5%.

transactions of some cross-market etfs fell

the most intuitive feeling brought about by the occurrence of abnormal situations is the change in transaction volume. last friday, the gem etf surpassed the shanghai and shenzhen 300 etf to become the top trading volume of the day. wind data shows that the e fund gem etf reached 10.096 billion yuan on friday, a new high since the etf was listed. the huatai-berry csi 300 etf transaction volume was 9.61 billion yuan, a decline from the previous month.

the subsequent disclosure of redemptions and redemptions showed that the total number of fund shares of etfs linked to the csi 300 increased by 816 million that day, a significant decline from the 3.9 billion increase in the previous trading day; etfs linked to the chinext index saw redemptions of 5.18 from thursday. 338 million shares, with net subscriptions of 338 million as of friday.

in addition, the largest etf linked to the csi 1000 index, the trading volume of the southern csi 1000 etf on friday was 2.925 billion yuan, a decrease of more than 40% from the previous day's 5.362 billion yuan. one day's 1.788 billion yuan increased to 5.847 billion yuan.

overall, stock etfs still had a net subscription of 1.204 billion shares on friday. the aforementioned china securities csi 1000 etf had the most net subscriptions that day, with fund shares increasing by 600 million, followed by china southern csi 1000 etf, which had fund shares that day. an increase of 500 million units. in addition, the net subscription share of e fund gem etf and universal consumer etf on that day also exceeded 200 million units.

looking at tracking indexes, wind data shows that 546 stock etfs had tracking index deviations wider than the average on friday, accounting for nearly 70% of all stock etfs; while those that had the above situation on the previous trading day there are 391 of them.

looking only at the situation of broad-based etfs, some broad-based etfs tracking the same index on friday tracked index deviations. for example, among the csi 2000 etfs, the tracking deviations of 8 of them increased from the average since their listing. the csi 2000 index rose by 4.75% that day, while the csi 2000 etf that deviated the most had a net return of 4.24% that day. the index gained less than 0.51%.

more than 53 billion yuan has been attracted since tuesday

although there were abnormal transactions, market investment enthusiasm continued since the state council information office announced the "package" of policies. wind data shows that since september 24, stock etfs have had a net inflow of 53.393 billion yuan, and the net inflow that week reached 56.26 billion yuan, with the current total scale reaching 2.41 trillion yuan.

during this period, huatai-berry csi 300 etf attracted the most gold, with its scale exceeding 300 billion yuan and 350 billion yuan in succession. wind data shows that the size of the etf increased from 291.356 billion yuan on monday (september 23) to 357.653 billion yuan on friday (september 27), an increase of 66.297 billion yuan.

after reaching the 200 billion mark on monday, the e fund csi 300 etf increased to 238.742 billion yuan on friday, an increase of 38.188 billion yuan in only 4 trading days. the total size of etfs linked to the csi 300 has increased from 792.278 billion yuan on monday to the latest 948.88 billion yuan, which is about to exceed one trillion yuan.

the southern china securities 1000 etf also increased from 39.557 billion yuan on monday to 52.903 billion yuan on friday; the southern china securities 500 etf stood at the 100 billion yuan mark this week, with the latest scale of 105.802 billion yuan.

the number of stock etfs with a scale of over 100 billion yuan in the market has increased to 6, and the number of stock etfs with a scale of over 10 billion yuan has increased from 24 to the current 25. tianhong csi 300 has entered the tens of billions category this week, with the latest size of 107.09 billion.

in addition, perhaps due to profit-taking reasons, e fund gem etf, wells fargo shanghai composite index etf, cathay securities etf, etc. have experienced large capital outflows since tuesday. looking over a longer period of time, wind data shows that since september, stock etfs have attracted 100.03 billion yuan in gold.