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the shanghai stock exchange’s test is out, and the data is so exciting!

according to the test results,after the shanghai composite index simulated trading, the index rose another 6.05%, reaching 3274.41 points. the bidding system received 270 million orders, which was twice the historical peak and three times the number of declarations last friday.

although this is only a stress test, and the peak data has little actual reference significance, it is enough to show that both institutions and ordinary investors have a sharp increase in confidence in the stock market.

looking at it now, domestic sentiment for the subsequent rise in the stock market is still very strong. after the shanghai stock exchange’s pressure measurement result data was released,investors from major investment groups have begun to expect that the shanghai stock index will hit 3,300 points or even higher in the future.

last week, the total market value of a-shares increased by rmb 10 trillion within four days, and each investor made a huge profit of rmb 47,000!

but what is more painful than losing money is having a full position but not having enough money. in the past few days, the market has been discussing that investors outside the market, especially the adults, have begun to react. they are rushing into the sales department again to open accounts, raise funds and prepare to enter the market in large quantities. such news is already everywhere in the circle of friends.

the official side has also given support to this. under normal circumstances, china clearing's working hours are consistent with the opening hours of the exchange, and business is generally not carried out on weekends. however, this time it made an exception and temporarily opened on the weekend (29th). at the same time, brokers also synchronized arrange for online account opening review, which has become extremely popular in many years.there are reports that the daily account opening volume of some business departments of a certain brokerage has surged nearly 10 times compared with the average of the previous month!

the sentiment towards long chinese assets has reached an unprecedented and intense climax.

01 long sentiment completely reversed

last week, nearly 20 sub-industries of a-shares have increased by more than 20%, especially travel retail, liquor, medical beauty, non-bank finance, etc., which are the most popular in the market. the performance is particularly exaggerated, among which the individual stock level has increased by more than 30% have already appeared in large quantities.

the performance of hong kong stocks is the same, and even the exaggerated gains of many large-capitalization giants are no less than that of the a-share hype leaders.in the past 20 days,thanks to its inclusion in southbound trading, alibaba has increased by nearly 30%, jd.com has increased by 46.86% during the period, ctrip, kuaishou, haier smart home, etc. have increased by more than 30%, and meituan has even increased by more than 60%.

according to icbc data,the bank's net value of changes in investors' bank-securities transfer funds soared to 7.04 on september 27, which was significantly higher than the 0.66, 2.15, 1.4, and 4.4 in the previous four trading days. the weekly average was 3.13, a record high for three and a half years since 2021. new high.

there are even reports that there has been a wave of transfers of large-denomination certificates of deposit from many banks recently. some time deposit certificates even have 2 days left to expire before they can receive regular interest. depositors would rather give up this part of the interest and transfer the certificates of deposit to cash in order to obtain funds. get in the market early.

it is not only domestic investors and institutions that have changed their beliefs, but also foreign capital. nowadays, foreign investors are also dumbfounded. even major investment banks such as goldman sachs, barclays, morgan stanley, and citigroup have directly changed their tune and become significantly more optimistic about the chinese stock market.

the survey showed that 8 of 12 wall street investors surveyed believe now will be a turning point in the long-term rebound of chinese stocks. among them, hedge fund legend david tepper even shouted directly on an interview show:"for chinese assets, i buy everything. i will buy etfs and futures. i will buy everything."

according to wind data, the net inflow of main funds in the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets this week exceeded 34 billion yuan, of which the net inflow of main funds in the shanghai and shenzhen 300 stock markets exceeded 23 billion yuan. the main net inflows of funds in the non-bank finance, food and beverage, and electronic industries reached 12.504 billion yuan, 7.699 billion yuan, and 3.806 billion yuan respectively. oriental fortune, catl, and wuliangye attracted the largest net inflows of major funds this week, reaching 5.263 billion yuan, 2.174 billion yuan, and 1.762 billion yuan respectively.

incremental funds are actively flowing into the market through etfs. the cumulative net inflow of stock etfs this week exceeded 55 billion yuan, of which the net inflow of huatai-berry csi 300 etf exceeded 20 billion yuan, the net inflow of e fund csi 300 etf exceeded 7 billion yuan, and the net inflow of southern china the csi 1000 etf and the china southern csi 500 etf both had net inflows of over 6 billion yuan.

02 where will the funds go next?

just yesterday, japan's shigeru ishiba was successfully elected as the new prime minister. on the eve of the election, he expressed support for the bank of japan's policy of steadily raising interest rates and expressed concerns about the depreciation of the yen. the market is worried that his appointment will speed up the pace of japanese yen interest rate hikes, and the japanese yen index has appreciated significantly as a result. the value of the rmb once appreciated by more than 2% in a very short period of time, while nikkei stock futures fell by more than 6% in response.

at the same time, the most crowded technology stocks in the u.s. stock market on friday night also experienced a weak correction. the reason is that the market is worried that the u.s. dollar’s ​​interest rate cut and the yen’s interest rate hike will lead to an accelerated contraction of the interest rate difference between the two, which will in turn lead to a large amount of previous “yen arbitrage” funds. the tide will recede again, triggering concerns about liquidity in the u.s. and japanese stock markets.

although the decline in the u.s. and japanese stock markets may not necessarily have a direct impact on the chinese stock market, the risk of stock market fluctuations they bring will be transmitted to some extent, especially when a shares suddenly turn from bear to bull and have an exaggerated rise, and at the same time, domestic a shares are closed during the seven-day national day holiday. in the longer term, it may stimulate an increase in the safe-haven demand of many funds.

so next, how to think about and judge the possible future trends of funds is very worthy of attention.

if we look at the nature of funds, we can divide them into stable funds and risk-preferential funds.

the former is mainly based on various national teams and large public funds, focusing more on high-quality and stable assets and long-term investments; the latter includes private equity, hot money and individual retail funds, focusing on short-term opportunities brought about by various themes and emotions. .

although the market is now rising with unprecedented consistency and short-term opportunities are everywhere, for stable funds, it is more important to consider the volatility of the investment portfolio (except for the allocation required by the above hard indicators) and the balance of income at this time.

in the past, high-interest dividend stocks such as big finance, petrochemical energy, and public utilities were their focus, but they had all risen too much in the past.

in particular, in the banking sector, due to the strong lpr and existing mortgage interest rates, interest spreads have shrunk, which will significantly affect the profit side. it is expected that the next financial report data may weaken, so there is a high probability that funds will not continue to allocate to the banking sector at this time; and in the petrochemical energy sector, oil prices fell due to opec's announcement to abandon the oil price target. industry profits are also expected to shrink. in addition, the accumulation of petrochemical energy, including coal, has increased too high since last year, and it is unlikely that funds will be allocated. on the contrary, with the support of expected performance to continue to improve at a faster pace, securities companies and insurance companies are more cost-effective than others.

for this type of funds,it is expected that the next allocation strategy will take into account both performance growth/improvement expectations and valuation performance-price ratio. for example, leaders in various rigid demand/optional consumption industries have benefited from large-scale economic stimulus, which has rekindled enthusiasm for real estate, infrastructure and consumption.

because the vast majority of industry leaders have experienced a cumulative decline of more than 80% from 2021 until this round of surge, it is obvious that the oversold situation is too serious, and there is still a lot of room for compensatory growth.

for funds with high risk appetite, stimulated by the unprecedented strong money-making effect and long-term sentiment, they are more willing to choose more flexible concepts and themes for speculation, such as those mentioned in recent major conferences and will be launched in various places. policy points, and various themes that appear in the market are carried out to chase the rise and kill the fall, and constantly create new big brothers on the dragon and tiger list.

but at the same time, we must also note that the current short-term gains of a large number of stocks in the two cities are really exaggerated. the short-term upside space must have been significantly overdrawn. after this wave of surges, the attitude of funds will definitely begin to diverge, reflecting the true strength of the stock market. high return and high risk characteristics.

03 epilogue

it can be seen that under the background of the logic reconstruction of china's stock market, the money-making effect becoming more and more obvious, and there are so many investors waiting to enter the market, there is a high probability that there will be a good "money-making" market in the future.

but it is still necessary to remind everyone again that when you are happy to "pick up money", you must pay close attention to your position and rhythm to avoid the unlucky guy who loses money in the bull market.