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catalyzed by a series of favorable policies such as rrr cuts, interest rate cuts, and liquidity support to increase holdings and repurchases, since september 25, the single-day trading volume of a-shares has continuously exceeded one trillion yuan, and the index has surged in volume, showing a balance between volume and price. rising trend.

industry insiders believe that the current signal of efforts to revitalize the economy is very strong, and the trends of a-shares and hong kong stocks are expected to reach a higher level. the major indexes of the a-share market are expected to challenge the year's high in may 。

market confidence has been effectively boosted

transaction scale exceeds one trillion yuan

after the federal reserve released its september interest rate statement in the early morning of september 19, lowering the target range of the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, on september 24, pan gongsheng, governor of the people's bank of china, also made a number of major announcements at the state council information office meeting. the news includes that the deposit reserve ratio will be lowered by 0.5 percentage points in the near future, and the deposit reserve ratio will be further lowered during the year depending on market liquidity conditions; the central bank's policy interest rate will be lowered, and the 7-day reverse repurchase operation interest rate will be lowered by 0.2 percentage points, etc. .

catalyzed by multiple good news, the shanghai composite index surged by more than 100 points on september 24, with a 4.15% increase setting the largest single-day closing increase in more than four years (see figure 1). the total market transaction volume also surged to 974.423 billion yuan, an increase of 394.835 billion yuan from the previous day. since then, the single-day turnover has exceeded one trillion yuan for three consecutive trading days, reaching 1,455.627 billion yuan on september 27. 。

citic securities believes that from the perspective of the external environment, the interest rate gap between china and the united states has gradually narrowed after the federal reserve cut interest rates, while the rmb exchange rate has strengthened as a whole, and the restriction of a loose currency by the goal of stabilizing the exchange rate has eased, and there will be more room for my country to cut interest rates.

wang qing, chief macro analyst of oriental jincheng, judged that the central bank's announcement of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratios will play an important role in boosting total macroeconomic demand. on the one hand, the reduction in financing costs will directly stimulate consumption and investment demand, effectively exert a countercyclical adjustment effect, and promote the improvement of economic growth momentum; at the same time, it will also alleviate the current macroeconomic situation of "strong supply and weak demand" and promote price levels. a modest recovery. on the other hand, the central bank's policy package will effectively boost market confidence and improve social expectations.at this stage, this is of great significance to stabilizing growth, stabilizing the property market, and achieving the economic growth target of “around 5.0%” set at the beginning of the year.

on september 26, the political bureau of the central committee of the communist party of china held a meeting and pointed out that it is necessary to respond to the concerns of the masses, adjust the housing purchase restriction policy, reduce the interest rate of existing mortgage loans, speed up the improvement of land, fiscal and taxation, banking and other policies, and promote the construction of a new model of real estate development. efforts should be made to boost the capital market, vigorously guide medium and long-term funds to enter the market, and open up the blocking points for social security, insurance, financial management and other funds to enter the market. we will support mergers, acquisitions and reorganizations of listed companies, steadily advance the reform of public funds, and study and introduce policies and measures to protect small and medium-sized investors.

in this regard, chen guo, chief strategy officer of citic securities, issued a statement saying that the signal of this meeting to fully revitalize the economy is very strong, and it also specifically mentioned efforts to boost the capital market, which is inspiring and will be a double benefit to the stock market in terms of profitability and valuation. , the trends of both a-shares and hong kong stocks are expected to reach a higher level, maintaining the judgment that the major indexes of the a-share market are expected to challenge the year's high in may.

the policy delivers multiple benefits

focus on four major opportunities

against the background of the introduction of major favorable policies and the strong growth of the yangtze river, the question that everyone is most concerned about is whether the index has bottomed out and whether the market will start.

financial v v @guo yiming believes that the bottom line of the policy is quite clear. after the federal reserve cut interest rates, room for domestic monetary policy easing opened up. lowering reserve requirements and interest rates can provide liquidity to the market and stimulate and boost the stock market. the realization of the expectations of this rrr cut and interest rate cut is self-evidently beneficial to the stock market. more importantly, this time it was specifically proposed to "create new policy tools to support the development of the stock market." the central bank clearly expressed its support for the development of the stock market. for a shares, both in terms of overall valuation level and cash dividend return rate, they have entered the value investment zone, and investors can gradually start strategic allocations.

hualong securities said that the policy delivers multiple benefits and can actively seize market opportunities. specifically, you can pay attention to four major investment opportunities:

the first is investment opportunities in growth sectors, including electronics, tmt, machinery and equipment and other fields with large technological innovation attributes.. the policy focuses on high-quality development, setting up re-loans for technological innovation and technological transformation, and increasing financial support for technological innovation and equipment upgrading and transformation; the capital market reform attaches great importance to serving technology enterprises and supports the development of venture capital. the policy provides financial support for the development of scientific and technological innovation enterprises, which is conducive to reducing corporate financing costs and accelerating the growth of scientific and technological innovation enterprises.

the second is investment opportunities in large consumption and real estate chain fields, including automobiles, household appliances, construction and building materials, etc. in order to promote the healthy development of the real estate market, the central bank will introduce further policy measures, namely reducing existing mortgage interest rates and unifying the minimum down payment ratio for mortgage loans. the policy will help reduce mortgage expenditures and promote the expansion of consumption and investment, and related industries are expected to benefit.

third, related opportunities in the financial sector it is expected that policies will create new monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the stock market, promote the expansion of the pilot scope of equity investment in financial asset investment companies, smooth the cycle of "raising, investing, managing and exiting" of private equity and venture capital funds, and promote the high-quality development of the insurance industry. investment opportunities in the financial industry.

fourth, monetary policy cuts rrr and interest rates. , support the real economy and high-quality development, stabilize economic growth expectations, and superimpose the federal reserve to start an interest rate cut cycle,industries with superior historical performance, such as pharmaceuticals and biology, power equipment and other sectors.

domestic and foreign long-term funds continue to be deployed

in addition to policy support, the characteristics of long-term capital contrarian layout this year are also very obvious.

on the evening of september 17, sdic power issued an announcement stating that it planned to issue shares to the national council for social security fund to raise no more than 7 billion yuan and introduce strategic investors. on july 11, china nuclear power announced that it planned to issue shares to the social security fund to raise 12 billion yuan. this is also the social security fund’s first attempt to increase its shares. regarding the introduction of the social security foundation as a strategic investor, sdic power stated that this is a pioneering practice to support the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, and is also an important measure to implement the state council's requirements for improving the quality of listed companies. in this regard, this public account has also published "the "national team" takes a strong shot! nearly 20 billion funds are directed at these two beijing companies! ", conducted detailed analysis and reporting on the above news.

in addition to social security funds, as a typical representative of the "national team", central huijin has also used etfs to increase its holdings in a counter-cyclical manner since this year. according to wind statistics, as of the end of the second quarter of this year, central huijin held a total of 223.206 billion etf shares, an increase of 135.588 billion shares from the end of 2023, and the total market value of etf holdings was 570 billion yuan.

the equity allocation of patient capital insurance funds has also increased steadily this year.according to statistics from the state administration of financial supervision, as of the end of the second quarter of this year, the balance of insurance company funds used reached 30.87 trillion yuan., among which, the total funds used by property insurance companies and personal insurance companies to invest in stocks were 2.08 trillion yuan, an increase of 136.856 billion yuan, or 7.05% compared with the end of 2023; the total funds used to invest in securities investment funds were 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 136.856 billion yuan from the end of 2023. at the end of the year, it increased by 169.368 billion yuan, an increase of 11.04%.

not only are domestic capital accelerating their deployment, but foreign-funded institutions are also constantly "supporting" a-shares. according to data from the china securities regulatory commission website, in the first eight months of this year, 50 foreign-funded institutions were approved as qualified foreign investors (qfii), and the number of qfiis reached 848 . at the same time, spdb axa fund, the british asset management giant m&g investment company, and the american kingsoft fund have successively announced the launch of chinese stock-related products, which demonstrates the confidence of foreign institutions in the chinese market and also indicates that there may be large-scale funds in the future. into the a-share market.