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on alliance strategy—the dilemma of commitment (1)

2024-09-29

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after world war i, the governing elites realized that the alliance system that was supposed to bring them security had become the most uncontrollable risk.

in the first 40 years of the 20th century, almost all european powers were committed to finding and using alliances to gain security, but these efforts ultimately proved to be a failure, that is, their costs were far greater than the actual effects, or worse, it completely defeats the purpose that strategy is meant to serve.

in the first decade of the 20th century, with the signing of alliance treaties between major powers, the two major camps in europe gradually emerged. the remaining countries have to join a certain camp in pursuit of security or to avoid isolation. worried that the seriousness and effectiveness of these alliances will not be respected enough by rival alliances, the ruling elites in each major country maintain this consensus: the commitment to aid to small countries must not stop at slogans and treaty texts, but always be ready to take action. at the same time, europe is in a state of widespread anxiety and weariness: governments and elites are anxious about the growing tensions and confrontations between groups of countries, and ordinary people are tired of the general peace that has prevailed for nearly half a century. the overwhelming historical image of war in the minds of european state ministers and soldiers at that time was that of the german unification war: a rapid mobile war, a crisp decisive battle followed by a large encirclement. so, when austria put pressure on serbia after its archduke was assassinated, russia, germany, france, and britain successively declared war on the hostile alliance, and the words "go home for christmas" were written on the troop carriers of each country's army.

an obvious paradox is that the original intention of establishing and joining alliances in peacetime is to ensure security and peace, but it is precisely the alliance that creates a general tension beyond the control of each country, which ultimately makes the major powers lose control in just a few days. entering the war, he rushed to the battlefield as if he was relieved.