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the political bureau of the cpc central committee held a meeting on september 26 to analyze and study the current economic situation and plan the next economic work.

the meeting pointed out that we should seize key points and take proactive actions to effectively implement existing policies, step up efforts to launch incremental policies, further improve the pertinence and effectiveness of policy measures, and strive to complete the annual economic and social development goals and tasks.

data map for each chapter

the "daily economic news" reporter noted that this meeting emphasized the need to increase countercyclical adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies, and at the same time made it clear for the first time that the real estate market should be stabilized.

the meeting emphasized the need to increase countercyclical adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies, ensure necessary fiscal expenditures, and effectively implement the "three guarantees" work at the grassroots level. it is necessary to lower the deposit reserve ratio and implement a strong interest rate cut. to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, we must strictly control the increment of commercial housing construction, optimize the stock, improve the quality, increase the loan supply for "white list" projects, and support the revitalization of existing idle land.

do a good job in the "three guarantees" work at the grassroots level

the meeting made it clear that it is necessary to increase the counter-cyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies, ensure necessary fiscal expenditures, and effectively do a good job in the "three guarantees" work at the grassroots level. it is necessary to issue and make good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds to better play the driving role of government investment.

the reporter noted that in 2024, in addition to the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, it is planned to arrange 3.9 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, an increase of 100 billion yuan over the previous year. in addition, most of the 1 trillion yuan of additional treasury bonds issued in the fourth quarter of last year will also in this year's use, the scale of government investment has increased significantly compared with last year.

yang chang, chief analyst of the policy group of zhongtai securities research institute, said in an interview with "daily economic news" reporter wechat that from the first eight months of 2024, there will be a gap in the general public budget revenue and expenditure, and additional general government bonds will be issued to make up for the revenue and expenditure gap. , it may be possible to ensure necessary financial expenditures.

wang qing, chief macroeconomic analyst of oriental jincheng, said in an interview with a reporter from "daily economic news" that following the full launch of monetary policy on september 24, it is expected that fiscal incremental policies will also be introduced, which may include additional fiscal stimulus measures. measures such as treasury bonds and the reissuance of special refinancing bonds for local governments of a certain scale. with an eye on further expanding investment and promoting consumption, there may be room for an increase in the amount of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds used to promote large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods. this is also an important starting point for "making good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds."

liu tao, a senior researcher at the guangkai chief industry research institute, said in an interview on wechat with a reporter from "daily economic news" that from the actual situation, the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is currently advancing steadily, and there are still 6 batches of issuance plans from october to november. will be completed. the issuance progress of local government special bonds was relatively lagging in the first half of the year, but it began to accelerate in august, with a monthly increase of nearly 800 billion yuan. it is expected that the issuance scale will continue to be high from september to november.

in terms of monetary policy, liu tao said that the federal reserve recently announced a significant interest rate cut, and may drop it again before the end of the year. this will provide a better time window for my country's monetary policy to increase countercyclical adjustments. in addition, given that among the structural monetary policy tools, carbon emission reduction support tools, inclusive small and micro loan support tools, and inclusive pension special re-loans will all expire at the end of this year, it is expected that the central bank may also implement related measures at the end of this year or early next year. structural monetary policy tools further added new quotas, and lowered the re-loan to support agriculture, re-loan to support small businesses, and rediscount interest rates by 0.5 percentage points each to facilitate cooperation in green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance and other projects.

promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize

the meeting emphasized the need to respond to the concerns of the masses, adjust housing purchase restriction policies, reduce existing mortgage interest rates, improve land, taxation, banking and other policies, and promote the construction of a new model of real estate development.

ma hong, a senior researcher at the guangkai chief industrial research institute, said in an interview on wechat with a reporter from the "daily economic news" that this meeting proposed "promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize". this is the first meeting of the political bureau of the cpc central committee after many years. the policy requirements for the operation of the real estate market are clearly stated.

yan yuejin, deputy director of shanghai yiju real estate research institute, said in a text interview with a reporter from "daily economic news" that the stop of decline here includes both the stop of decline in transaction volume and the stop of decline in transaction price. observing the transaction data of new and second-hand houses in various places since july, especially the data in august are actually facing new pressure. and there is widespread feedback from various places that there is pressure on market demand to be out of stock, thus causing the market to face the risk of falling.

wang qing said that the important arrangements made at this meeting, especially the arrangements for real estate work, exceeded general expectations and will play an important role in unifying thinking, guiding expectations, and boosting confidence. on the one hand, this will ensure the successful completion of this year's economic growth target, and it also means that the real estate industry is expected to usher in an important turning point.

wang qing predicts that the remaining limited purchase restriction policies nationwide will be further relaxed to a greater extent or even completely withdrawn. in addition, the existing housing loan interest rate reduction will be implemented soon, and the existing housing loan interest rate will also follow the continuous reduction of the new residential housing loan interest rate in the future. these are of great significance in promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize.

ma hong said that this meeting emphasized increasing the loan supply for "white list" projects, with the intention of promoting commercial banks to expand the scale of credit to real estate enterprises. it is expected that from the fourth quarter of this year to the beginning of next year, housing support policies will be further strengthened to accelerate the pace of housing stock removal. the central bank will extend the implementation period of the "16 financial support policies" for real estate, increase the support for financing tools of various real estate companies, and meet the reasonable financing needs of private real estate companies; accelerate the implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism and further increase liquidity support for real estate companies and help more projects under construction to be successfully completed.

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