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after 61 days, the shanghai composite index regained 3,000 points again!

it took only 7 days for the index to fall below 2700 and regain 3000 points! an increase of 11%!

the determination and actions to boost the stock market are powerful!

i originally thought that shanghai’s huge consumption subsidy policy today was powerful enough to stimulate a collective surge in the consumer sector.

unexpectedly, the major announcement made at the politburo meeting at noon brought another huge surprise to all market investors!

moreover, the content instructions released significantly exceeded expectations!

hong kong stocks have gone completely crazy because of this!

as of the close, the three major a-share indexes of shanghai, shenzhen and chinext rose by 3.61%, 4.44% and 4.42% respectively. 5,140 stocks in the market rose, 151 stocks hit the daily limit, and the total daily turnover was 1,166.4 billion. the hang seng index and the national index of hong kong stocks rose by 4.16% and 4.75% respectively.the hang seng tech index soared by 7.27%, rebounding by more than 20% in the past seven days, stepping into a technical bull market.

in terms of sectors, real estate, consumption, finance, technology, manufacturing, utilities, etc., except for energy, all other sectors have risen across the board, and even sectors such as liquor and real estate are close to reaching their daily limit, which is much stronger than the "924" market!

source: wind

there is no doubt that this is definitely the strongest overall bull market this year!

the logic of the hong kong stock market has really changed!

01

bigger than expected

this central political bureau meeting was unusual in many aspects.

for example, the meeting was held in late july this year. according to general expectations, it would most likely be held after the national day holiday or in december. but now it is just before the holiday, and not long after the "9.24" blockbuster news was released.

at the same time, the time of publishing the meeting content is generally to avoid the stock market trading hours to avoid causing major fluctuations in the capital market, but this time it was chosen at noon. this timing consideration is very meaningful.

generally speaking, the content of meeting minutes will have a relatively fixed format and length. for example, the minutes of the "430" meeting are about 2,500 words, but this meeting only has 1,200 words, and a large number of fixed expressions have been deleted.

in terms of content, the wording and tone are more serious than before, and the work measures proposed are also more specific. the urgency behind this is self-evident.

you know, tuesday’s press conference has already announced many major policies that exceeded expectations, some of which have not yet been publicly released or are still in preparation.

this time, the convening of the politburo meeting and its guidance on economic work were once again extremely significant and exceeded expectations.

it is not only a reinforcement and supplement to a series of policies on tuesday, but also confirmed from the high level of the political bureau of the central committee. the significance behind it is absolutely extraordinary!

looking specifically at the content of the meeting, i felt like savoring every word and sentence.

the main points:

for the overall tone,we must face up to difficulties, step up efforts to introduce incremental policies, and further improve the pertinence and effectiveness of policy measures.compared with the summarization and work instructions of the previous politburo meetings on the economic situation and economic work, especially compared with the end of april and the end of june this year, the attitude has obviously changed a lot. for example, in the "730" meeting, the general tone was "to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy", and this time it was "to increase the countercyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies".in particular, the statement of "facing up to difficulties" is worthy of deep understanding, which has never been seen before.

for real estate, the tone of the meeting in july was roughly the same as the previous one. this time, it was made clear that the market would "stop falling and stabilize", increase the loan issuance for white-listed projects, and respond to the concerns of the people, adjust the housing purchase restriction policy, and reduce the interest rate of existing mortgage loans. the verbs used are obviously more proactive and indicative.

everyone should not forget that this year the country has introduced a series of major policy plans to support the development of the real estate industry and stimulate the recovery of the real estate transaction market, especially the "924" press conference, which mentioned a significant reduction in existing mortgage interest rates and loosening of down payment ratios, as well as a series of other bank-side and relaxed supporting measures.

all this clearly reflects the country's strong determination to promote the stabilization of the real estate market.

judging from the growth of the real estate sectors in both a-shares and hong kong stocks, it is clear that the market's expectations for real estate are beginning to change.

there are also two important areas: consumption and capital markets.

promoting consumption has been a very important task in the past two years. the country has introduced a large number of consumption subsidies in various industries and fields. however, due to the macro-environment and market expectations, the situation has not been effectively reversed, and the market response of the consumer sector has not been ideal.

but recently, the decision-makers have obviously re-understood the consumption environment, and the policies have become more pragmatic and powerful. moreover, the top leaders have made clearer work guidance on adjusting the income distribution structure and promoting the increase of income for the middle and low-income groups, which is a more basic and weak link in the consumption economic cycle. this is of great and far-reaching significance.

the same applies to the capital market.

in the meeting in july last year, there were similar statements on the capital market, such as "activating the capital market and boosting investor confidence", but no specific measures were mentioned in detail. this time is obviously different.the wording mentioned is "working hard to boost the capital market", with the addition of two very important prefixes "working hard to boost" and "vigorously guiding". these changes in wording make the meaning even stronger.

this statement should be viewed in conjunction with the content of the "924" press conference."epic surge! did you really understand what the central bank said?"it has been analyzed that the country is vigorously deploying a series of arrangements to support the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market, and the scale is huge. in addition to the national team that has been buying at the bottom on a large scale this year, there are also newly approved first-phase 500 billion swap facilities and 300 billion special stock repurchase and increase refinancing. if there are two or three phases, the amount of funds here will be as high as 2.4 trillion. this is a bullet that can be used to buy stocks directly, and the stimulating effect on the stock market can even far exceed the so-called 100,000 economic stimulus plan (after all, most of the money for economic development cannot flow into the stock market).

and it does not include luring other national teams and social funds into the market, which will in turn bring incremental funds to the stock market to an unimaginable and unexpected scale.

with such large-scale and long-term funds supporting it, it would be very difficult for the stock market to fall further, or even basically impossible.

so at this time, opportunities are really everywhere.

02

opportunities are everywhere

combined with today's market performance, the outbreak of consumption has immediately caught our attention. since this happened before the release of the content of the politburo meeting, let's first analyze the consumption opportunities.

first,food and beverages will inevitably be the backbone of the rebound.

liquor prices began to rise steadily from the opening, and by midday they had accumulated a 5-point gain. in the afternoon, they continued to gain momentum and approached the daily limit.

a total of 16 liquor companies hit the daily limit, and even moutai was close to hitting the daily limit! the signal of a rebound has been established again.

regarding the fundamentals of liquor, the previous articles have analyzed it many times, so i will not repeat it here. after the continuous sharp drop of kweichow moutai, the company took out 6 billion to repurchase to enhance the confidence of the stock price. after a few days of sharp rise, the stock price also stood above 1500 again. but for the industry as a whole, the pressure on the price side is now greater than the sales side, and there is still a long way to go to reduce inventory, and the growth expectation needs to be rebuilt.

the performance of the real estate chain and the rebound of liquor are basically synchronized. the upstream and downstream of the real estate industry have been catalyzed by many recent real estate policies, including ferrous metals, cement, decoration building materials, household goods, kitchen and bathroom appliances, all of which have increased by more than 5%.

the beer index is also close to the daily limit.

another stimulating news affecting the sector is that hong kong plans to reduce the tax on spirits, hoping to work hard to restore hong kong's advantages as a preferred destination for nightlife, dining and shopping. according to people familiar with the matter, this is expected to be a highlight when li jiachao delivers the "policy address" in mid-october.

helen's, a hong kong-listed company known as the "young people's pub", opened at rmb 1.50 and its share price soared to as much as 90%.

in addition, discretionary consumption such as hotels and restaurants, travel retail, snack foods, and medical beauty all performed strongly today.

in addition to the early anticipation of national day consumption, there are also favorable policies today to stimulate consumption.

shanghai has decided to issue "happy shanghai" service coupons to four areas, including catering, accommodation, movies, and sports. the first batch of municipal fiscal funds will be 500 million yuan, of which catering will account for 360 million yuan.

it is not difficult to understand why the bulk of the spending goes to catering. catering is the most indispensable part of offline consumption scenarios. when you go shopping, you certainly can’t just eat. you also have to walk around and take a look, and other consumption will naturally come.

and this is just shanghai, other cities will definitely follow suit. these are all predictable.

it has also been mentioned in today's politburo meeting that policies must be fully implemented in terms of residents' income, consumption structure, and consumption formats, and must combine promoting consumption with benefiting people's livelihood.

after the old-for-new policy was proposed this year, cities such as beijing, guangzhou and shanghai implemented subsidies one after another. the retail sales of household appliances in august turned from a year-on-year decrease of -2.4% in july to 3.4%, which played an effective role in boosting sales in the short term.

in general,the package of policies released on september 24th undoubtedly provides support for the pan-consumer sector where negative expectations have been expressed quite fully.

in particular, the liquor and home furnishing industries have a relatively obvious positive correlation with the real estate industry. the recovery of the real estate industry is expected to drive renewed growth in demand for liquor and furniture.

in addition, due to the relatively sluggish market environment in recent years, the stock prices of the consumer industry have continued to adjust, and some consumer stocks with ample cash flow have fallen out of their higher dividend yields. for example, in the textile and apparel, light industry, food and beverage industries, many stocks have dividend yields that are at the forefront of the market. these are also important directions favored by funds.

03

summary

in general, the stock market is currently at a low point. combined with the us dollar interest rate cut stimulating the start of a global liquidity easing cycle and the release of a large number of unexpected domestic policies, consensus can easily condense into a reversal force and attract capital inflows, so it is highly likely that the upward trend will continue for a period of time.

there are really too many opportunities here.

therefore, in this rare bull market, everyone must have a big picture!