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a-shares rose to the top of the hot search, the shanghai composite index broke through 3,000 points! moutai returned to 1,500 yuan

2024-09-26

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since the rebound on september 18, the shanghai composite index has risen by more than 10%, recovering all the losses this year. today, topics such as #a-shares return to 3,000 points# and #a-share turnover exceeds one trillion for two consecutive days# quickly became hot searches on weibo.

a-shares soared for three consecutive days. in the afternoon, boosted by an important meeting, the shanghai composite index broke through the 3,000-point mark in one fell swoop, and the shenzhen component index and the chinext index soared by more than 4%. the trading volume of the two markets exceeded the trillion yuan mark for two consecutive days. hong kong stocks also exploded, with the hang seng index surging by more than 4% and approaching the 20,000-point mark, and the hang seng technology index soaring by more than 7%, both setting new highs in this round of rebound.

specifically, the shanghai composite index fluctuated upward in the morning, and rose sharply in the afternoon driven by real estate, brewing and other sectors, reaching a new high in nearly three months. as of the close, the shanghai composite index rose 3.61% to 3000.95 points, the shenzhen component index rose 4.44% to 8916.65 points, the chinext index rose 4.42% to 1714.14 points, and the shanghai 50 index rose 4.69%; the two markets had a total turnover of 1162.5 billion yuan, and the turnover increased for three consecutive trading days.

more than 5,100 stocks were in the green, and about 150 stocks hit the daily limit; liquor stocks set off a daily limit wave, with 20 stocks such as shanxi fenjiu, luzhou laojiao, wuliangye, and gujing gongjiu hitting the daily limit, and kweichow moutai rose more than 9% to return to above 1,500 yuan; it is worth noting that penghua csi liquor etf hit the daily limit in the afternoon, which was the first time in history. the real estate sector also broke out, with more than 30 stocks such as poly development, vanke a, china merchants shekou, and gemdale group hitting the daily limit; securities, insurance, and banking sectors all performed well, with tianfeng securities hitting the daily limit for three consecutive days, boc securities, changjiang securities, guohai securities, etc. hitting the daily limit, and xinhua insurance and guiyang bank rising by more than 7%; the steel, building materials, and coal sectors collectively rose, zhongnan shares hit the daily limit for four consecutive days, bengang plate won two boards on the 3rd, and oriental yuhong and jianlang hardware hit the daily limit.

in terms of hong kong stocks, the two major stock indexes rose unilaterally during the session, with the hang seng index rising by more than 4% and approaching 20,000 points, and the hang seng technology index soaring by more than 7%. as of the close, the hang seng index rose by 4.16% to 19,924.58 points, a new high since august last year; the hang seng technology index soared by 7.27% to 4,209.71 points. chinese real estate and beer stocks rose sharply, with longfor group rising by more than 28%, china resources land rising by more than 20%, and china resources beer and china overseas development rising by more than 15%. in addition, haidilao rose by about 18%, and dongfang zhenxuan and jd group rose by more than 10%.

some analysts said that today's meeting sent a very strong signal of full efforts to revitalize the economy, and also specifically mentioned efforts to boost the capital market and inspire people, which will be a double benefit to the stock market's earnings and valuations. the trends of a-shares and hong kong stocks are expected to reach a higher level.

liquor stocks hit daily limit

liquor stocks exploded across the board today. as of the close, 20 stocks including lao baigan liquor, shanxi fenjiu, luzhou laojiao, wuliangye, jiugui liquor, and gujing gongjiu hit their daily limit; kweichow moutai rose more than 9% to return above 1,500 yuan, with a total daily turnover of 14.27 billion yuan, and the turnover exceeded 10 billion yuan for three consecutive days.

it is worth noting that penghua csi liquor etf (512690) hit the daily limit in the afternoon.

on the news front, the political bureau of the cpc central committee held a meeting on september 26 to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy the next economic work. the meeting pointed out that it is necessary to combine consumption promotion with people's livelihood, promote income growth of low- and middle-income groups, and improve the consumption structure. it is necessary to cultivate new consumption formats. it is necessary to support and regulate social forces to develop the elderly care and childcare industries, and speed up the improvement of the fertility support policy system. it is necessary to increase the efforts to attract and stabilize investment, speed up the promotion and implementation of reform measures such as foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector, and further optimize the market-oriented, legal, and internationalized first-class business environment.

founder securities pointed out that the political bureau of the cpc central committee, the state council information office, and the national development and reform commission have recently held many meetings or press conferences and issued a series of favorable policies, and the momentum of economic development has continued to improve. at present, the valuation of the food and beverage sector has been adjusted to a historical low against the background of low expectations in the previous period, and the valuation percentile in the past five years is 1.18%. we are optimistic about the layout opportunities brought by policy catalysis. as a high-quality asset with strong economic correlation, there is room for valuation repair in the pro-cyclical period. after experiencing short-term wholesale price fluctuations + weakening fundamental expectations leading to valuation cuts, the current pe-ttm of the liquor sector is only 18 times, and the valuation percentile in the past three years is 2%. from a fundamental perspective, demand has weakened significantly since the second quarter, and the feedback from the mid-autumn festival channels is also mainly a smooth transition. however, in the off-season, when the focus of liquor companies shifts to maintaining the industry price system, the current leaders of various price bands are relatively stable in terms of channel circulation and price system, and there is no need to worry too much about the resilience of the head companies. under the new price and new industry cycle, the industry is expected to further intensify in the squeezed growth, and the stability of the liquor sector is given priority, and the dividend asset attributes are highlighted.

real estate sector exploded

the real estate sector rose sharply during the session. as of the close, teda services hit its 20% daily limit, while more than 30 stocks including airport economics holdings, oct group, city development, shenzhen shenfang real estate, poly developments, china merchants shekou, vanke a, and gemdale group hit their daily limit.

the important meeting held today emphasized that we must increase the intensity of countercyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies, ensure necessary fiscal expenditures, and do a good job in the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level. we must issue and use long-term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds to better play the leading role of government investment. we must lower the deposit reserve ratio and implement a strong interest rate cut. we must promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize. we must strictly control the increase in commercial housing construction, optimize the stock, and improve the quality. we must increase the loan issuance of "white list" projects and support the revitalization of idle land. we must respond to the concerns of the people, adjust the housing purchase restriction policy, reduce the interest rate of existing mortgage loans, and speed up the improvement of land, fiscal and taxation, and financial policies to promote the construction of a new model of real estate development.

in addition, on september 24, the state council information office held a press conference to introduce the relevant situation of financial support for high-quality economic development. at the meeting, a number of important policies were launched at the same time. the central bank increased the intensity of monetary policy regulation to further support economic growth and accelerate the stabilization of the real estate market.

zhongtai securities stated that recent high-frequency real estate data has continued to decline, and as a peak season, it has even weakened compared with august. it is difficult to say that the industry fundamentals have bottomed out in the short term, but looking forward to the fourth quarter, there is a high probability that favorable real estate-related policies will continue to be introduced, and the performance of the real estate sector in the fourth quarter will continue to be optimistic.

financial sector rises

the securities sector was active. as of the close, oriental fortune rose more than 13%, boc securities, tianfeng securities, changjiang securities and guohai securities hit their daily limit, citic securities rose more than 6%, and citic construction investment and guosheng financial holdings rose more than 5%.

the insurance and banking sectors also performed well, with xinhua insurance and guiyang bank rising by more than 7%, china pacific insurance and ping an bank rising by more than 6%, and china life insurance rising by about 3%.

today, a major meeting mentioned that efforts should be made to boost the capital market, vigorously guide medium- and long-term funds into the market, and clear the bottlenecks for social security, insurance, and financial management funds to enter the market. it is necessary to support mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, steadily advance the reform of public funds, and study and introduce policy measures to protect small and medium-sized investors.

ping an securities pointed out that the introduction of a series of monetary policy tools is expected to support sufficient liquidity in the capital market and active market trading sentiment. at the same time, the deepening of reforms on the investment and asset sides of the capital market will be beneficial to the healthy development of the securities industry in the long run. policies such as the six measures for active mergers and acquisitions and restructuring are also expected to bring new opportunities to investment banking and other businesses, which is beneficial to the repair of the fundamentals of securities companies. the current valuation and holdings of the securities sector are at historical lows, with high cost-effectiveness and safety margins. pay attention to the valuation repair of the sector brought by the beta attribute.

in the insurance sector, the optimization of real estate policies such as the reduction of existing mortgage interest rates, the promotion of long-term investment reforms for insurance funds, and the improvement of risk appetite in the capital market are all conducive to the asset repair of insurance companies. since the beginning of this year, the liability side of listed insurance companies has improved well, and the valuation and holdings of the insurance sector are still at the bottom, and the long-term allocation value of the industry is optimistic.