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recovering 3,000 points, a shares continue to surge

2024-09-26

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on the 26th, a-shares continued to maintain their upward trend, and the three major indexes continued to rise in the afternoon. as of the afternoon close,the shanghai composite index closed up 3.61%, returning to 3,000 points, with a single-day increase of more than 100 pointsthe shenzhen component index closed up 4.44% at 8,916.65 points; the chinext index closed up 4.42% at 1,714.14 points.

on that day,the turnover of the two markets was 1162.5 billion yuan, breaking the trillion yuan mark for two consecutive trading days. the ratio of gains and losses of all stocks traded in the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets was 5143:177.there were 151 stocks that hit the daily limit in the two markets, and 3 stocks that hit the daily limit.

▲source: wind screenshot (same below)

on the macro news front, the political bureau of the cpc central committee held a meeting on september 26 to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy the next steps in economic work.

chen guo, chief strategy analyst at citic securities, said that today's meeting sent a strong signal of full efforts to revitalize the economy, and also specifically mentioned efforts to boost the capital market, which is encouraging and beneficial to both earnings and valuations of the stock market.we maintain the judgment that the major indices of the a-share market are expected to challenge the annual highs in may.

in terms of sectors, all sectors rose across the board, with liquor, real estate, catering and tourism, daily chemicals, and building materials leading the gains.

liquor stocks led the gains, with lao baigan liquor and jinzhongzi liquor hitting their daily limits, and kweichow moutai soaring more than 9% to 1,529 yuan, with a turnover of over 14.2 billion yuan. the real estate industry chain exploded, with vanke a, gemdale group, shangpin home delivery and many other stocks hitting their daily limits.

food stocks rebounded in a volatile manner, with qianwei yangchu, juewei foods, guangzhou restaurant, etc. hitting their daily limit. the big financial sector was strong, with tianfeng securities, changjiang securities, yinzhijie, cofco capital, and minmetals capital hitting their daily limit.

qu yiping, a strategic analyst at eastmoney securities, told china business network that the market has returned to 3,000 points, the trading volume of the two markets has continued to exceed one trillion yuan, and the bullish sentiment has been restored, proving that the current macro policy adjustment is accurate and effective. after the fed's first 50bp interest rate cut, us debt is expected to continue to decline quarter by quarter, and the domestic interest rate cut toolbox has room for long-term development. at the latest politburo work meeting, detailed deployments were made for finance, currency, enterprises, and people's livelihood.at the meeting, it was mentioned that efforts should be made to boost the capital market and to vigorously guide medium- and long-term funds into the market. this is the core tone for the continued strength of a-shares and will give long-term capital reassurance.

looking ahead to the fourth quarter, qu yiping believes that china's three major economic drivers, namely consumption, investment and net exports, are expected to continue to recover marginally and achieve a full-year gdp growth of 5 percentage points. the stabilization of real estate prices will fundamentally drive the recovery of profits in the upstream cyclical industry, midstream manufacturing and downstream consumer industries.the bottom of a-share earnings is expected to appear in the fourth quarter, and the fundamental improvement in fundamentals will drive a-shares to continue to move independently.

zhongyuan securities said that the politburo meeting boosted confidence and expectations for macroeconomic regulation in the second half of the year have increased. the central bank recently stated that it will implement measures such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio, interest rates, and existing mortgage rates to boost the domestic economy and create new policy tools to support the development of the stock market. the fed has started a cycle of interest rate cuts, with an unexpected 50 basis point cut for the first time, but powell's statement is hawkish, and the extent of subsequent interest rate cuts remains to be seen.

zhongyuan securities said that as the domestic macro-control expectations are strengthened and the steady growth policies are continuously implemented, the market is expected to stabilize and rebound. in the future, the overall stock index is expected to maintain a volatile upward pattern. at the same time, it is still necessary to pay close attention to changes in policies, funds and external factors. in terms of operations, investors are advised to pay attention to investment opportunities in industries such as internet services, cultural media, medical equipment, and aerospace and military industries in the short term.