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the press conference on a package of financial support for high-quality economic development by one bank, one bureau and one commission completely ignited the a-share and hong kong stock markets.

on september 24, the a-share market rebounded sharply, with the shanghai composite index rising 4.15% and once again reaching the 2,800-point mark, the shenzhen component index closing up 4.36%, and the chinext index closing up 5.54%. more than 5,100 stocks rose in the market, with a turnover of 970 billion yuan in the two markets, and market risk appetite rebounded significantly.

a number of important policies were introduced at the same time, increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation and further supporting steady economic growth. at the beginning of the state council information office's press conference, the news of lowering the deposit reserve ratio, policy interest rate, and existing mortgage interest rate and other monetary policy cuts came out, and the ftse a50 futures index rose by more than 2%. after the close, the index rose by 6%.

the three major regulatory measures have promoted the a-share market with remarkable results."compared with the previous policies of a single department, this time the collective press conference of one bank, one bureau and one commission proposed an overall and systematic solution, which is the main reason for the market surge." an executive of a fund company told a cailian reporter that the confidence seen by the market lies in the impact of the combined policies of various departments on the market, and this expectation is the source of confidence.

30 stock etfs surged more than 6%

a long-awaited general rise! at the close of september 24, all major industries in the a-share structure rose, with cyclical consumption and real estate chains, as well as high-dividend resource products performing better.

most broad-based indices saw sharp increases. from the perspective of stock etfs, the fintech etf surged 8.5% in a single day, the gem theme etf rose 7%, and 30 stock etfs including the consumer etf, brokerage etf, and food and beverage etf rose by more than 6%.

the positive regulatory policy statements have dispelled investors' concerns about policy tightening. the increased risk appetite has driven the market to stabilize and rebound. while raising risk appetite, the market has begun to look forward to the arrival of the "credit bull".

exceeding expectations is the consensus of fund companies on today's market. fullgoal fund said that overall, the combined punch of this concentrated announcement is expected to have a greater effect than the sum of individual policies. the combined punch of relevant policies is powerful and is conducive to the stabilization and recovery of the domestic economy. while promoting economic growth and price recovery, it also takes into account the support for long-term funds in the equity market.

guotai fund also stated that the three major financial regulatory agencies announced a series of policies to enhance market confidence, which exceeded the market's previous expectations.first, the reserve requirement ratio was cut by 50bp this time and it was announced that it would be cut by 25-50bp this year. the reserve requirement ratio would be reduced by 1.5% at most this year, which is the most relaxed reserve requirement policy since 2018. second, the interest rate cut was large. the 20bp interest rate cut in this reverse repurchase was the largest since the 2020 epidemic. third, new monetary tools were created to support the stock market. the first one is the securities, funds, and insurance companies swap facility, and the second one is the creation of stock repurchase and increase holdings re-loan. in addition, the central bank also said that it is studying the creation of a stabilization fund.

"this press conference is full of sincerity and aims to promote a virtuous cycle of economic growth through the demand side." zhang yongzhi of huashang fund said that while stimulating demand is the core of current policies, the 500 billion yuan securities, fund and insurance company swap facility and the 300 billion yuan stock repurchase and increase special re-loan created by the central bank will help promote the overall liquidity supply of market institutions such as national investment institutions, fund companies, and listed companies, and provide financial support for the stock market of up to trillions of yuan, better supporting the stable development of the stock market.

gan jingyun, chief macro analyst at chuangjin hexin asset management, said that the strength and content of the central bank's policy package exceeded expectations, and most of the incremental policies expected by the market were responded to. the loose monetary policy may inject confidence into the previously weak market, and at the same time reflect the urgency of the current steady growth policy of the regulatory authorities. pay attention to the possibility of subsequent fiscal policy following the monetary policy.

looking ahead, qianhai kaiyuan fund said that the increase in policy expectations will help improve market risk appetite and promote the stabilization and repair of the index. structurally, the pro-cyclical consumption and real estate chains that benefit from the improvement in policy expectations may rebound. the style with smoother mid-term logic after policy catalysis may still be high dividends and undervalued growth.

the overall policy of one bank, one bureau and one commission exceeded expectations, and the subsequent implementation is also worth looking forward to. western profit fund said that in the future, the ministry of housing and urban-rural development, the ministry of finance, the national development and reform commission and other departments may introduce further supporting policies, and we can continue to pay attention to the pace and intensity of the implementation of subsequent policies.

penghua fund also pointed out that the opening of the central bank's liquidity transmission channels to the capital market and its use to support the opening of equity space will bring clear benefits; policies related to supporting mergers and acquisitions, restructuring and market value management have also been relaxed, but the actual effect remains to be further observed.

fund companies judge: a-shares may see strong improvement, and hong kong stocks will benefit especially

after the big rise, can the equity market continue to rise? fund companies give a relatively optimistic assessment.

according to china asset management, as far as the equity market is concerned, the improvement in fundamentals, coupled with ample funds such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the return of overseas funds, and the influx of long-term stable funds into the market, may usher in a relatively strong improvement, and hong kong stocks are expected to benefit in particular.

morgan asset management believes that the continuous introduction of financial policies reflects a positive response to the current economic situation. through measures such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio, guiding interest rate cut expectations, reducing the interest rates of existing mortgage loans, and launching new monetary policy tools to support the capital market, it aims to reduce the financing costs of the real economy, strengthen financial support for the real economy, stabilize the capital market, and provide strong support for the high-quality development of the economy.

the current overall valuation level of a-shares is at a relatively low level in the past decade. against the backdrop of continued recovery of the domestic economy, the federal reserve's interest rate cut has opened up space for domestic monetary policy. combined with the fiscal policy, which may be strengthened in the second half of the year, 300 billion ultra-long-term special government bonds have been issued, and the "two new" policies have been fully launched. the market is expected to stabilize and rebound.

"although it will take some time for the weak economic demand to recover, monetary easing and increased support policies will significantly improve investors' risk expectations and drive the index to stabilize and rebound. we will focus on the effectiveness of the implementation of existing policies and the possibility of additional fiscal policies by the standing committee of the national people's congress in october." guotai fund said that in terms of investment, on the one hand, it will focus on pro-cyclical consumption and real estate chains that have fallen sharply in the previous period and benefited from improved policy expectations; on the other hand, monetary easing has pushed down the risk-free interest rate in the whole society, and high-dividend assets with stable operations may once again usher in a good opportunity for layout.

china europe fund said that the market is expected to see a structural-led rebound, and the short-term performance of the structural market will be reflected in the convergence of sector valuation differences. as the current expectations for economic fundamentals have hardly changed, the impact of fundamental factors on rebalancing transactions is relatively weak, and the market will be more dominated by the capital side. in the process of shocking and bottoming out, it is expected that new investment directions will be traded.

qianhai kaiyuan fund said that the increase in policy expectations will help improve market risk appetite and promote the stabilization and repair of the index. structurally, the pro-cyclical consumption and real estate chains that benefit from the improvement in policy expectations may rebound. the style with smoother mid-term logic after policy catalysis may still be high dividends and undervalued growth.

strategically, short-term oversold rebound, medium-term focus on leverage

the invesco great wall investment research team pointed out that considering the gradual introduction of stimulus policies and the fact that the market has entered a short-term oversold state, it is relatively optimistic about the future performance. it is recommended to pay attention to three major directions: first, oversold rebound and valuation repair opportunities, including but not limited to real estate chain, medicine, some consumer goods, media, etc.; second, the fundamentals have entered the right direction or there are potential policy-favorable growth directions, including semiconductor industry chain, consumer electronics, and information technology; third, it is recommended to pay attention to some large-cap stocks that have fallen sharply in the previous period but are core components of major broad-based indexes.

in huaan fund's view, the value of equity market allocation is evident, and looking for investment opportunities such as technological innovation, dividends, domestic consumption, and going overseas, overall, measures to support the economy and stabilize the capital market will help boost investor confidence. the current equity market implies more pessimistic expectations, and the risk premium level is one standard deviation higher than the historical mean, so the equity market allocation is cost-effective.

there are still investment opportunities in technological innovation, dividends, and going overseas. the development of digital economy, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and other industries will continue to promote high-quality development. the repurchase policy is beneficial to leading companies with stable operations, certain growth and dividend returns. in the hong kong market, internet platform companies with domestic demand competitiveness, as well as the automobile, home appliances, and service-oriented consumer industries that benefit from domestic demand policies in the a-share market are worthy of attention. the wave of intelligence is accelerating the upgrading and going overseas of china's automobile, machinery and other manufacturing industries.

golden eagle fund stated that returning to the investment strategy level of the a-share market, the index retreated to the low point of the year and then stabilized with increased volume, and a window for long positions was opened with the increase in policies.in terms of industry allocation, in the short term, we can pay attention to the rebound of oversold sectors. core dividends, overseas expansion, global resource products, and central leverage are still the medium-term directions.sectors that have fallen a lot before may be expected to see a significant increase, but the logic is more about the recovery of risk appetite, and the sustainability may not be strong. core dividends, overseas expansion, global resource products, and central leverage are still the medium-term direction.

long-term regulation of bonds may be relaxed

in the view of fund companies, as far as the bond market is concerned, relatively loose monetary policy will continue to provide support.

guotai fund said that the regulation of long-term interest rates seems to have been relaxed. governor pan said that the current long-term treasury bond yield in china is hovering around 2.1%, which is the result of marketization and has created a good monetary and financial environment for the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy. the treasury bond yield level is the result of marketization, and the people's bank of china respects the role of the market. as an important price signal, the treasury bond yield curve has problems of insufficient far-end pricing and insufficient stability.

"the unexpected easing by the financial regulatory authorities this time is conducive to improving market risk appetite, which is more favorable to short-term bonds, but has limited benefits to medium- and long-term bonds." guotai fund further stated that it remains cautiously optimistic about the current bond market, but needs to lower its expected returns. although the yield level of the bond market has fallen significantly compared with the beginning of the year, the factors supporting the decline in yields have not changed fundamentally, and reducing the financing costs of the real economy is still an important task for the financial system.