at 12:00 tonight, the biggest drop this year! the price of no. 92 gasoline dropped by 0.28 yuan per liter
2024-09-20
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on september 20, the domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened as scheduled. the economic herald reporter learned that the retail price limit of gasoline and diesel will be lowered at 24:00 on september 20, includinggasoline prices were reduced by 365 yuan per ton and diesel prices were reduced by 350 yuan per ton, marking the largest drops this year.converted to price per liter,no. 92 gasoline costs 0.28 yuan per liter, no. 95 gasoline costs 0.29 yuan per liter, and no. 0 diesel costs 0.30 yuan per liter.
in this pricing cycle, the two major crude oil futures indices started with a volatile decline. however, concerns about partial supply disruptions caused by hurricanes in the united states and the optimistic prospect of the federal reserve's interest rate cut helped push crude oil prices up slightly from a low level.
from the supply side, opec+'s 2.2 million barrels per day production cut will continue until the end of november, and several oil-producing countries such as iraq have stated that they will make compensatory production cuts. in addition, the instability of the situation in the middle east is difficult to eliminate, and potential supply risks exist.
from the demand side, the traditional peak season in the united states has ended, the market remains pessimistic about the outlook for the global economy and demand, and negative concerns continue.
on september 18, data released by the american petroleum institute (api) showed that u.s. crude oil inventories increased by 1.96 million barrels in the week ending september 13; gasoline inventories increased by 2.34 million barrels, and distillate oil inventories increased by 2.3 million barrels.
on september 18, the inventory report released by the u.s. energy information administration (eia) showed that u.s. crude oil inventories fell to a one-year low last week, which helped limit the decline in oil prices. as of the week ending september 13, u.s. crude oil inventories (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) fell by 1.6 million barrels to 417.5 million barrels, hitting the lowest level since september 2023; crude oil inventories in the midwest of the united states fell to the lowest level since december 2014.
in addition, the united states is slowly replenishing its strategic petroleum reserves, seeking to buy up to 6 million barrels of oil for delivery until may next year after the largest-ever release in 2022. the u.s. department of energy said it was seeking to buy oil for delivery to a storage site in louisiana from february to may.
it is worth noting that the u.s. federal reserve announced on september 18 that it would lower the target range of the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a level between 4.75% and 5.00%. this is the first interest rate cut by the federal reserve since march 2020, and it also marks the beginning of a new round of easing cycle in the u.s. monetary policy.
from the pricing effect point of view, there is a negative correlation between international oil prices and the us dollar, that is, after the interest rate cut, the us dollar falls and oil prices rise, but the actual situation is not the case.
judging from the intraday information, after the federal reserve announced a sharp interest rate cut of 50 basis points, the market had a "stress reaction": wti oil prices surged at one point, and then turned to decline, with the wti crude oil settlement price closing down 1.84%.
"reducing interest rates is a counter-regulatory measure for economic downturns. economic downturns mean lower oil demand, which drags down oil prices. simple interest rate cuts can delay economic downturns, but it is only a delay, and the trend is difficult to change. therefore, the biggest negative factor in the current oil market is still the decline in demand." zhu guangming, a crude oil analyst at zhuochuang information, said in an interview with the media, "in the process of economic downturn, crude oil demand is relatively weak. if you want to boost oil prices, you need to cut interest rates earlier."
although from a theoretical point of view, the interest rate cut will have a certain degree of positive impact on international oil prices, the market generally believes that the extent of this positive impact is relatively limited. especially under the current expectation of weak crude oil trends in the fourth quarter, the positive impact of the interest rate cut will be further weakened. in other words, if the crude oil market does not change the fundamental trend of oversupply and weakening, the market will remain pessimistic about the supply and demand outlook.
this round is the nineteenth price adjustment in 2024, and will also be the eighth price reduction in 2024.after this price adjustment,in 2024, the price adjustment of refined oil will show a pattern of "seven increases, eight decreases and four stagnation".
this price adjustment will reduce costs for private car owners and logistics companies.calculated based on an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50 litersafter this price adjustment,car owners will spend about 14 yuan less to fill up a tank of gas;for vehicles that consume 8 liters of fuel per 100 kilometers in urban areas, the average cost per 100 kilometers will be reduced by about 2.3 yuan. for large logistics transport vehicles with a full load of 50 tons and a fuel consumption of 40 liters per 100 kilometers, the average fuel cost per 100 kilometers will be reduced by about 12 yuan.
looking ahead, the fed has started a cycle of interest rate cuts, and the positive effects will gradually be released, which will boost market confidence in the economic and demand prospects to a certain extent. in addition, opec+ production cuts are still being promoted, and the instability of the situation in the middle east is increasing, so the positive effects of tight supply still exist. it is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment will be more likely to increase.the next round of refined oil retail price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on october 10, 2024。
(reporter liu yong from dazhong news and economic herald)
