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is it difficult to invest in a-shares? this set of data is thought-provoking!

2024-09-15

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invest in xiaohongshu-issue 208

passfaced with dust and scars, we still have to believe in time

the shanghai composite index is approaching 2,700 points, trading volume is declining again, and pessimism is approaching its peak.

some investors said that investing in a-shares is particularly difficult, for example, the existence of factors such as short bull and long bear, policy interference, etc., exacerbates the difficulty of investment. but as zhang yao, the value investment tycoon who made "2000 times in 20 years", once said: "investment is difficult everywhere, not just in china, most people can't invest well. the past few decades have been a period of rapid economic development in china, and it has been a golden period for making money in the securities market. to say that investing in china is difficult is to not truly understand investment and corporate development."

if we look at it from a cross-sectional perspective, the a-share market as a whole is a positive return market that outperforms inflation: from september 2005 to september 2024, there were 1,200 companies that have been listed for more than 20 years. if these companies were regarded as an investment portfolio, then the cumulative dividends of this portfolio over the past 20 years would be 5.8 trillion yuan. the current total market value of these companies is 22.2 trillion yuan, while 20 years ago, the total market value of these companies was only 3.2 trillion yuan. however, the cumulative amount of continued investment from additional issuances over the past 20 years is 6.9 trillion yuan.

it can be roughly calculated that in the past 20 years, this combination has brought investors a cumulative return of 5.6 times, with an annualized compound return rate of about 10%. considering that the current valuation is at a historical bottom, the actual return rate of a shares in the past 20 years is better than the apparent statistical data.