news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

the trend of declining wholesale prices of feitian moutai during the peak season has not ended.

the reporter of china business news noticed that the market wholesale price of feitian moutai original box has been falling continuously recently, with a drop of about 145 yuan per bottle compared with the end of august. according to feedback from the industry, the price drop is mainly due to the market demand being lower than expected, coupled with the increase in market supply during the holidays. however, at the semi-annual performance meeting held today (september 9), zhang deqin, chairman of china kweichow moutai distillery (group) co., ltd., responded to questions related to the changes in the market price of moutai and said that the overall market situation (of moutai) is relatively stable.

the wholesale price of moutai original box continues to decline and is close to that of loose bottles

the reporter saw on the private quotation platforms such as today's wine price that the wholesale price of the original box of 2024 53-degree feitian moutai is about 2,535 yuan/bottle today, which is 145 yuan/bottle lower than the quotation on august 31, while the price of loose bottle feitian remains stable, with the wholesale price being about 2,365 yuan/bottle, and the prices of loose bottles and original boxes are gradually approaching. the reporter saw on the nearby e-commerce platform that the terminal retail price of 2024 53-degree feitian moutai sold in many offline stores in beijing has also fallen back to about 2,330 yuan to 2,380 yuan/bottle.

according to many wine merchants, the recent decline in feitian moutai prices is related to increased market supply and lower-than-expected demand. second-tier merchants and retailers mainly obtain moutai supplies through moutai distributors. this month, the factory sent new goods to distributors, and moutai distributors also increased market supply during the holidays. however, due to demand issues, the market price of feitian moutai "failed to catch up."

since moutai implemented the "unboxing order" in 2021, the price difference between loose bottles of moutai and original boxes of moutai has been widening, with the highest difference of 500 to 600 yuan per bottle. in order to increase the sales of loose bottles and stabilize the market price, moutai previously added 12 bottles per box for unboxing sales. from june 2024, in order to stabilize prices, moutai stopped the release of "large boxes" of moutai, the supply of loose bottles in the market has decreased, and the price difference between the two has also narrowed.

photo by our reporter ren yuming

as the price of original boxes of moutai continues to fall, the recycling price of scalpers has also become different every day. a scalper in beijing told reporters that the recycling price of original boxes of feitian moutai in 2024 has also continued to fall, and has currently fallen to around 2,400 yuan to 2,450 yuan per bottle, and the recycling price of loose bottles has also fallen to 2,250 yuan per bottle.

ouyang qianli, secretary general of the liquor industry branch of shandong individual private enterprise association, told china business news that, in general, loose bottles of wine are often more expensive than boxes of wine, but due to the financial and collection attributes of moutai, and the "open box order" policy of that year, two quotation systems were extended: loose bottle moutai and original box moutai. today, the "open box order" policy has long ended, and the price of original box moutai has gradually approached that of loose bottle moutai, indicating that moutai is returning to its "drinking value", funds hoarding and speculating on moutai are withdrawing, and moutai consumption is gradually returning to rationality.

at the performance meeting held today, the continued decline in moutai's market price was also one of the focuses of investors' attention. when responding to relevant questions, zhang deqin stated that they had conducted in-depth market research in various provinces and regions, convened market work meetings in various provinces and regions, held discussions with representatives of distributors, e-commerce, group purchasing, provincial and regional self-operated channels, and continued to improve the strategic and tactical system. the overall market situation is relatively stable.

when will moutai’s decline bottom out?

during a previous visit, the reporter noticed that the popularity of alcohol consumption during this year's mid-autumn festival peak season was not as high as expected, and a new round of decline in moutai's wholesale prices also caused market concerns.

in june this year, due to the sluggish dragon boat festival market and the low-price promotion of feitian moutai by e-commerce, the wholesale price of feitian moutai collapsed. the wholesale price of loose bottles of feitian moutai fell from 2,500 yuan/bottle to 2,100 yuan/bottle. immediately afterwards, moutai’s management took a series of measures to control supply and prices, including reducing the payment ratio, stopping the shipment of large boxes of products, etc., and the market wholesale price gradually recovered.

however, starting from mid-august, a new round of price decline started again, and the overall wholesale price of feitian moutai has fallen more than risen recently.

the wholesale price of feitian moutai is closely related to market stability. in the early years, the total supply of moutai in the market was limited, and the scarcity of goods made them valuable. the huge price difference and financial attributes led to investment and hoarding, which in turn amplified market demand. however, with the annual expansion of moutai's production and new changes in the domestic economic consumption situation, the market supply and demand relationship of moutai is also changing. when the price of moutai is difficult to stabilize, it will affect the stability of its social inventory.

during the visit, the reporter noticed that the downstream retail channels were concerned about the risks of poor market sales and fluctuating wine prices, and were not willing to stock up, which was also one of the reasons for the weak demand for wine during the mid-autumn festival.

however, at the half-year performance meeting held today, moutai's management did not respond to sensitive topics such as how to stabilize market prices in the future, whether to control production capacity and market supply, opening rates and social inventory levels.

as for the future price trend of moutai, the impact of e-commerce is also a new variable.

ouyang qianli told the first financial reporter that the actual transaction price of moutai is the result of the struggle between many parties, such as the amount and speed of release by the winery, the financial pressure of distributors and quota holders, the expectations of wholesalers and scalpers, and the revenue of e-commerce platforms. whenever offline prices tend to be stable, e-commerce platforms that "win by price" will always take the lead in lowering prices to gain traffic and sales, thereby breaking the market situation and ushering in a new round of price drops. when prices stabilize again, e-commerce platforms will start the next round of price cuts, causing moutai prices to continue to fall.

at present, there is still a risk that e-commerce companies will impact the offline moutai price system with low prices. the reporter saw on taobao and pinduoduo that the price of a loose bottle of feitian moutai after subsidies in 2024 is around 2,300 yuan per bottle, which is still lower than the market wholesale price and close to the recycling price.

it is worth noting that the impact of e-commerce on the offline price system of liquor is also a new problem that liquor companies are collectively facing. last week, the douyin platform subsidized a douyin liquor merchant to sell wuliangye puwu at 845 yuan per bottle and guojiao 1573 at 810 yuan per bottle, both of which are far lower than the market retail price.

feng huaqing, vice president of ries category innovation strategy consulting china, believes that in addition to the problem of market recovery not meeting expectations, e-commerce is the channel sector where consumers perceive demand most clearly. in the short term, there is a contradiction between e-commerce price cuts and manufacturers stabilizing prices. in the long term, there is a contradiction between consumers' pursuit of quality-price ratio and the need for wine companies, especially famous wine companies, to maintain the high-end market and sprint to higher operating needs. since the outbreak, the adjustment of the liquor market has lagged significantly behind that of other consumer categories. this adjustment will continue to a certain extent, and there may be the possibility of further in-depth adjustments. wine companies need to be prepared and anticipate difficulties.