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august is traditionally a "slow month" for credit, and bill financing and government bonds are expected to become the main support for credit and social financing scale.

in july, rmb loans increased by 260 billion yuan, a decrease of 85.9 billion yuan year-on-year. the increase in social financing scale was 770.8 billion yuan, an increase of 234.2 billion yuan year-on-year. broad money (m2) increased by 6.3% year-on-year, while narrow money (m1) decreased by 6.6% year-on-year.

the macroeconomic team of china merchants securities predicts that financial institutions will add rmb 750 billion in loans in august, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 8.4%. among them, the new medium- and long-term loans to residents in that month were about 20 billion (about 160 billion in the same period last year, and an average of about 370 billion in the same period in the past five years), and the new rmb loans to residents were around 50 billion (392.2 billion in the same period last year, and an average of 584.2 billion in the same period in the past five years). in terms of corporate loans, it was observed that the bill interest rate rebounded significantly at the end of august, indicating that the credit supply at the end of the month would rebound. in summary, the scale of new corporate loans (excluding bill financing) is expected to be about 350 billion (about 600 billion in the same period last year, and an average of about 570 billion in the same period in the past five years).

cicc’s banking team estimates that new credit in august will be approximately 1.0 trillion yuan, with loan balance growth rate of 8.5%.

the agency pointed out that in terms of corporate loans, the continued low bill interest rate in august indicated that credit demand was still weak, and the rebound in bill interest rates at the end of august may be due to the phased increase in loan volume. at the state council information office press conference on september 5, the central bank mentioned "guiding banks to enhance the stability and sustainability of loan growth". in the current environment of weak demand, policies still need to avoid too fast a downward trend in credit growth. grassroots high-frequency data show that the pace of infrastructure implementation is still slow, which may be related to the strict control of local new debts. corporate loans are expected to increase less year-on-year. in terms of resident loans, the commercial housing transaction data in august was still weaker than the same period last year, indicating that residents' willingness to buy houses is still weak; the monthly early repayment rate of residents has decreased month-on-month but is still at a historically high level, and the growth rate of retail loans may still be low.

the issuance of government bonds accelerated in august, which is expected to support the growth of social financing.

industrial bank research predicts that the growth rate of social financing is expected to rebound slightly in august. from the perspective of government bonds, the issuance of local government bonds accelerated in august, providing support for the scale of government bonds, and government bonds in august may achieve a significant year-on-year increase. combined with the scale of credit, the new social financing in august is expected to be 3.43 trillion, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 8.3%.

china merchants securities believes that the new social financing in august is expected to be around 2.76 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.1%.

from the sub-items: rmb loans under the social financing caliber are expected to increase by about 700 billion. net financing of government bonds is 180 million (1.24 trillion in the same period last year). among them, net financing of treasury bonds is about 1 trillion (about 510 billion in the same period last year), and net financing of local bonds is about 820 billion (about 720 billion in the same period last year). direct financing of enterprises is about 130 billion, of which net financing of corporate bonds is about 130 billion (about 170 billion in the same period last year), and ipo/additional issuance and other funds raised are 12.4 billion (about 150 billion in the same period last year). "non-standard" financing increased by about 130 billion (about 100 billion in the same period last year), of which undiscounted acceptance bills are expected to decrease by about 150 billion.

debon securities estimates that the net financing of government bonds and non-financial corporate bonds in august will be about 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of about 480 billion yuan year-on-year; non-financial corporate stock financing in august will be about 12.4 billion yuan, a decrease of about 140 billion yuan year-on-year. it is estimated that the new loans of financial institutions in august will be about 970 billion yuan, an increase of about 390 billion yuan year-on-year compared with the same period in 2023, corresponding to a loan balance growth rate of about 8.5% (previous value 8.7%); it is estimated that the scale of social financing will increase by about 2.5 trillion yuan in august, an increase of about 620 billion yuan year-on-year compared with the same period in 2023, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of about 8.1% in social financing stock (previous value 8.2%).

the growth rates of m1 and m2 may decline in august.

industrial bank research pointed out that both m1 and m2 are expected to decline in august. in terms of m1, the transaction area of ​​commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities in august recorded a year-on-year decrease of -27.5%. weak new home sales continued to drag down m1. m1 is expected to decline by 6.8% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. in terms of m2, on the one hand, credit continued to run weakly in august, and the deposit derivative effect put pressure on m2 growth; on the other hand, the scale of net financing of government bonds in august was large, and the large amount of fiscal funds returned may disturb the m2 reading this month. combined with seasonal factors, m2 increased by 6.2% year-on-year in august, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.