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what's going on? the japanese stock market plunged again!

on the morning of september 9, the japanese and korean stock markets opened sharply lower, with the nikkei 225 index and the korea composite index falling by more than 2% in succession. after the opening, the nikkei 225 index continued to decline, falling by more than 1,000 points at the beginning of the session, and the decline once exceeded 3%.

on the market, japanese stocks in the financial and automobile sectors fell, and among the heavyweight stocks, toyota motor, mitsubishi ufj financial, and mizuho financial group all saw significant declines; chip stocks plummeted, with renesas electronics falling more than 8% and tokyo electron falling more than 6%.

on september 9, japan's 2-year government bond yield rose 1.5 basis points to 0.39%, the highest level since august 2.

it is reported that the "black monday" of japanese stocks is related to the market concerns caused by the us non-farm employment data last week. the data released last friday showed that the us employment data in august was slightly lower than expected: the number of non-farm employment in august increased by only 142,000, lower than the dow jones forecast of 161,000; the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, in line with expectations.

in addition, the july employment data of the united states was revised down from 114,000 to 89,000, and the june data was revised down from 179,000 to 118,000. in total, 86,000 new jobs were revised down in the two months. although the unemployment rate was in line with expectations, the weak employment growth still caused market concerns about the outlook for the global economy.

after the data was released, the u.s. stock market fell sharply last friday. after the release of japan's labor cash income data and u.s. non-farm data, japan 225 index futures fell again by more than 5%, showing the market's high sensitivity to economic data and concerns about future economic prospects.

according to wind data, historically, global stock markets have fallen sharply during the fed's rate cuts. michael hartnett, chief investment strategist at bank of america, said the market is "selling the first rate cut" and risk assets have actively led the fed and are no longer concerned about lower growth.

in addition, with the release of economic data and the adjustment of central bank policies, market expectations for the bank of japan to raise interest rates are also rising. according to data from the ministry of health, labor and welfare of japan, real wages adjusted for inflation rose by 0.4% year-on-year in july, rising for two consecutive months, mainly driven by wage increases in spring labor-capital negotiations and summer bonuses. nominal wages increased by 3.6% during the period, increasing for 31 consecutive months.

recently, former bank of japan governor haruhiko kuroda said via video at the shanghai bund conference: "the nominal neutral interest rate that the bank of japan is trying to gradually approach may be lower than 2%... the short-term nominal interest rate may be lower than 2%, possibly around 1.5%, or even lower." as expectations of a bank of japan rate hike gradually increase, japanese stocks have also been affected.

when asked about market expectations of further rate hikes by the bank of japan, japanese chief cabinet secretary yoshimasa hayashi said monetary policy should be considered or judged by the bank of japan, and if the economic situation requires stimulus, it would rather increase spending than cut taxes.

in july this year, the bank of japan raised interest rates for the second time this year, and the yen rose rapidly, causing large fluctuations in the market. japanese stocks fell sharply in early august, even dragging down global stock markets, which attracted great attention from investors.

spdb international's macroeconomic team pointed out that over the past month, the fundamentals of japan's economy have been mixed. on the one hand, japan's economic growth in the second quarter was better than expected, and private consumption also showed signs of improvement. on the other hand, corporate-related economic indicators and foreign trade performed poorly, and the july inflation data did not yet reflect the positive impact of the sharp increase in wages in the spring.

the team believes that japan will raise interest rates once more this year, which may happen as early as the october meeting. if the us economy enters a recession, the bank of japan may be inclined to keep its policy unchanged this year. in addition, we should be wary of the risk that the bank of japan is too hawkish and causes the japanese economy to stagnate. under the basic assumption that the bank of japan will raise interest rates once more this year, the yen is expected to have room for appreciation.