macron appoints 73-year-old new prime minister. is france moving from the republican front to the republican confrontation?
2024-09-07
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it started raining in paris on thursday morning. the drizzle of autumn rain slowly but firmly extinguished the last bit of heat, announcing the end of summer. this summer, the french seemed to have had a beautiful dream - the paris olympics was a complete success, and guests from all over the world gathered together. people temporarily forgot one thing: this jubilant france has been without a government for two months, which is unprecedented in modern french history.
since the parliamentary elections in early july elected the most divided parliament in the history of the fifth republic, president macron, who has the constitutional obligation to appoint a prime minister, has resorted to procrastination. the french prime minister seems to have become a "modern nezha" who can't be "born". macron used the olympic games as an excuse to delay until august. but after entering september, the situation became more urgent. the french constitution stipulates that the government must submit the next year's budget to parliament before october 1. now it is early september, and france does not even have a prime minister, let alone a government or budget.
macron can't delay any longer.
on september 5, 2024, local time, in paris, france, the new french prime minister michel barnier delivered a speech at the handover ceremony. visual china photo
since september, he has met with former presidents sarkozy and hollande, as well as leaders of all major political parties, at the presidential palace. finally, on this rainy and slightly chilly thursday, macron announced his choice - on september 5, local time, he appointed 73-year-old conservative right-wing politician michel barnier as prime minister. that afternoon, the french prime minister's office held a handover ceremony, and barnier officially succeeded gabriel attal as the french prime minister.
this really stirred up a hornet's nest. all of a sudden, french politicians from the left to the right had something to say.
the left is so angry that it wants to overthrow the government, but the extreme right is calm and composed
as the largest force in the new parliament, the left, which did not get the nomination of prime minister, was naturally very excited. within three hours after the announcement, the four major parties of the left alliance all expressed their intention to propose a motion to overthrow barnier's government.
on the other hand, the right-wing republican party, to which barnier belongs, is only the fourth largest force in the new parliament, with only 47 members. but now that a pie in the sky has fallen and won the prime minister's throne, it can be said that there is a joyful atmosphere.
the far-right national rally, which has achieved a historic breakthrough and ranks third in parliament, knew from the beginning that it would definitely be excluded from the government, so it has been sitting on the sidelines watching the fight. its spiritual leader marine le pen quickly stated that she would closely observe barnier's policies and asked the latter to "respect" his voters.
in fact, after the left announced that it would mobilize its 193 members to actively oppose the barnier government, le pen and her 126 members became the lifeline of barnier and macron.if le pen wanted to, she could vote in support of the left's motion to overthrow the government, causing the barnier government to collapse as soon as it took office.
this is the crisis behind macron's choice of barnier - because his behavior does not give the left any face at all, and he has made the new french government a government that does not have the participation of the extreme right but must please the extreme right. the future of french politics is bound to become more turbulent.
michel barnier, a bolt from the blue for the left
as the biggest winner in this parliamentary election, the left began to put pressure on macron immediately after the second round of elections, asking him to appoint a left-wing prime minister. however, the left was not united enough and wasted almost a month deciding who to put forward as a joint candidate. by the time they finally decided on a candidate, macron had already used the olympics as a shield and "slipped away".
after the olympics closed, macron, who had just finished his vacation, met with leaders of left-wing parties in the presidential palace, and then immediately announced that he would not appoint a prime minister from the left-wing coalition. the reason was that the left-wing coalition included the far-left france indomitable party, which would be boycotted by all non-left parties in parliament, and even if this government was appointed, it would quickly collapse.
to be fair, i and many people in french society agree with macron on this point. after all, macron only said at the time that he would not appoint politicians from the left-wing new popular front, and judging from the wording of the announcement, he did not mean to exclude the left from the government.
at that time, it was generally believed that macron would most likely recall a retired center-left politician and let someone moderate enough be prime minister to ensure that his centrist camp and the left could reach some kind of coalition government agreement.
in the first few days of september, things seemed to be moving in this direction. on monday, macron successively invited bernard cazeneuve, the socialist prime minister during hollande's time, and xavier bertrand, the president of the hauts-de-france region, to the presidential palace.
in today's french political arena, one of these two people is the most right-wing among the left, and the other is the most left-wing among the right. it can be said that no matter who is elected, it will be an explanation to the left and enhance some mutual trust.
however, michel barnier was a bolt from the blue for the left. since he was elected as a member of parliament and entered politics at the age of 27, he has never shown the slightest sign of leaning to the left.
this can be seen from the presidential campaign platform proposed by barnier in 2021. on the issue of immigration, he proposed to temporarily freeze france's entire immigration system for 3 to 5 years to give the government time to deal with the backlog of immigration issues and propose new policies. among them, the right-wing has always advocated reducing long-term visas, reducing family reunion visas, and strictly dealing with illegal immigration.
ironically, as a professional eu politician and the eu's chief representative in the brexit negotiations, barnier proposed in his 2021 election manifesto that france should hold a referendum to jump out of the eu's immigration framework and handle immigration issues on its own. when this statement came out, even his comrades in the party were shocked.
on social issues, he believes that macron's postponement of the retirement age to 63 is not enough and should be postponed to at least 65. at the same time, he supports other liberal economic policies such as tax cuts and decentralization that are supported by the right.
by choosing him as prime minister, macron was basically spitting openly in the face of the left.
former socialist president hollande was previously called to the presidential palace by macron for consultation. we don't know what advice he gave, but it certainly wasn't to make barnier the prime minister. as soon as the news was announced, hollande told reporters that barnier's appointment was "tacitly approved" by the far right.
marine tondelier, secretary of the green party, summed it up better: "the president flirts with the far right. at the same time, in order to ensure that the (barnier) government does not fall, he moves further and further to the right of the political spectrum."
the specific reason is as i mentioned above. in fact, although the barnier government has not yet been formed, anyone with a discerning eye can see that the far-right marine le pen holds the lifeline of this government. and this result is the result of macron's choice.
“we have gone from the republican front to the republican confrontation.”tongdriye said.
just two months ago, in order to fight against the extreme right, the left withdrew from the election in more than 100 constituencies and sent many of macron's candidates to pass. now facing macron's attitude, the anger of the left is understandable.
le pen sits on the mountain and watches the tigers fight, becoming the biggest winner
the biggest winner in this incident is naturally marine le pen and her far-right national rally. from the beginning, she was very clear that her party had nothing to do with this political game, because it was impossible for anyone to choose her party as prime minister, and even a coalition government with her party was unlikely.
so in the two months since the election, while the left and macron were fighting each other, le pen and her national rally were generally very quiet. even the party leader jordan bardella said a few days ago that they felt that it was not a good idea to choose anyone as prime minister, and it would be better to form a non-partisan government of experts.
this is actually easy to understand, because the national alliance did not win an absolute majority in the second round of parliamentary elections in july. because mainstream parties exclude far-right parties, there is actually not much they can do in parliament in the next two and a half years. in the new parliamentary elections in mid-july, the national alliance did not get a single seat for the chairman, vice chairman, and chairmen of various committees.
under such circumstances, le pen's best solution is naturally to concentrate on preparing for the presidential election in 2027. at the same time, in the coming period, the more turbulent the french political arena is and the more angry the people are, the better it will be for her.
in addition, macron chose a conservative right-wing old man as prime minister, which is a complete break with the left. the lifeline of this government is in le pen's hands. she will not participate in this government, and barnier certainly does not want far-right lawmakers to join his government, but if this government has any policies that make her dissatisfied, she can always join forces with the left to overthrow this government.
for le pen, this is almost a best-case scenario.
french politics will be more difficult in the future
macron's appointment has completely broken with the left and completely discouraged left-wing voters. it will be extremely difficult to get left-wing voters to form a republican front to support his candidate. this is good news for le pen.
of course, those who support barnier have said that barnier is an experienced politician and that french politics is already a mess and no one like him can keep the situation under control.
indeed, barnier is a capable man. i had a brief conversation with him in 2021 when he was still dreaming of becoming a presidential candidate. what impressed me most was that as the eu's chief brexit negotiator, his english was really not good enough. in addition, he was very serious and stern, which was in line with my imagination of the older generation of french politicians.
the next challenge he will face is the french government budget for 2025. if this budget cannot be passed, his government will quickly collapse. in the next month or two, the parliament will definitely review his budget one by one, turning it into a battlefield for a protracted war.
on thursday evening, at the french prime minister's office, the oldest and youngest prime ministers in the history of the fifth republic completed the handover.
an elderly man, leading a government that is on the verge of collapse, i wonder how long he can last?
(xu xiaofei, graduated from columbia university school of journalism, currently lives in paris)
the paper special correspondent xu xiaofei
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