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on september 2, the market opened lower and continued to fall throughout the day, with the shanghai composite index hitting a new low and the chinext index falling nearly 3%. as of the close, the shanghai composite index fell 1.1%, the shenzhen component index fell 2.11%, and the chinext index fell 2.75%.

in terms of sectors, insurance, st sector, coal, banking and other sectors had the largest gains, while cssc, semiconductors, liquor, gaming and other sectors had the largest losses.

overall, more stocks fell than rose, with more than 4,400 stocks falling in the market. the turnover of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets today was 705.7 billion, down 170.9 billion from the previous trading day.

last friday, a-shares fell slightly after a sharp rise in volume, which brought hope to investors but also left a trace of worry.

judging from the trend of major indices today, the expectation of a “good start” in september may have been dashed shortly after the market opened in the morning.

why is this happening? what happened during the trading session? let’s find out.

reason 1: the market is concerned about the sustainability of the month-end rebound

this background factor was probably discussed a lot last weekend.

simply put, the market has rebounded to some extent at the end of each month since the second half of the year, but has not yet been able to effectively break through the moving average pressure.

the following figure is the recent daily k chart of wind all a index↓

after the big surge on july 31, the market once believed that the stock had the greatest potential for a rebound, but it also experienced continuous corrections due to some unexpected events.

because of this, when the market fell at the end of last friday, the "impression points" left on investors were inevitably slightly lower than the previous rebound, and the level of optimism also declined accordingly.

the following figure is the recent daily k chart of the shanghai stock index↓

therefore, the strength of the a-share market at the opening today will determine the attitude of many wait-and-see funds.

reason 2: poor market performance at the beginning of trading

unfortunately, today among the three major indexes, only the chinext index was slightly higher in the early trading, while the shanghai composite index and the shenzhen composite index were both underwater throughout the day, with no decent rebound.

the reason is that, on the one hand, some of the "off-market factors" that were favorable for the market to rise last friday have temporarily turned into unfavorable variables today. for example:

a50 index futures plunged at the beginning of trading.

the rmb exchange rate has weakened.

on the other hand, from the perspective of capital flows, except for institutional funds that held on for a while, the main forces, big investors and retail investors all clearly flowed out 5 minutes after the opening today.

at the same time, funds that repeatedly supported the market through broad-based etfs last week were also less active in the morning.

from sse 50, csi 300 to csi 500 and csi 1000, the trading volumes of related etfs were all lower than last friday.

as a result, the market will inevitably return to a situation of shrinking volume and falling. however, as of the close, the a-share market still recorded a turnover of more than 700 billion yuan today, and the subsequent trend is worth observing.

reason 3: some weighted sectors weakened

at the beginning of the morning session, the two major weighty sectors, including chinese-character stocks and liquor, weakened significantly, which put pressure on the index and market sentiment.

last thursday, the blue-chip stocks of the so-called "601" group fell across the board. in addition to the loosening of chips, some people pointed out that the performance of some chinese-character companies was under pressure, which caused market concerns.

for example, china power construction's 2024 semi-annual report shows that the company's total operating revenue was 285.383 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.29%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.338 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.49%; basic eps was 0.35 yuan, and the average roe was 3.87%.

the weakening of the liquor sector is likely also due to the differentiation in mid-year performance reports.

according to reports, the 20 a-share listed wine companies achieved a total operating income of 238 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 13.7%; and achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 95.264 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 13.77%. however, compared with the overall growth in the same period last year, in the first half of this year, the revenue of 5 wine companies declined and the net profit attributable to the parent company of 5 wine companies declined.

guojin securities said that the market's expectations for the second quarter reports of liquor companies are relatively cautious and rational, and the market has intensively revised down the eps (earnings per share) of liquor stocks. however, with the approaching peak sales period of the two major festivals, the recent intensive opening of channels for payment collection and terminal stocking, structural highlights can still be expected.

the shanghai composite index was relatively resistant to declines in the first 30 minutes of trading due to the recovery of some high-dividend assets such as banks and coal.

this does not contradict the aforementioned weakening of chinese characters, after all:

1) the banking sector is still popular. when small and micro-cap stocks are weak, the inertia of funds grouping together remains;

2) the coal sector is almost the most suitable for "oversold rebound" among dividend assets;

3) in the high dividend sector, a few truly high-performing stocks are expected to continue to receive financial favor.

in addition, the insurance sector's counter-trend leadership is inseparable from favorable policies.

according to reports, the state council executive meeting held on august 30 studied several opinions on promoting the high-quality development of the insurance industry, emphasizing that "it is necessary to cultivate and expand patient capital such as insurance funds, break through institutional barriers, improve the assessment and evaluation mechanism, and provide stable long-term investment for the capital market and technological innovation."

coincidentally, the hot sectors of the september gold stock portfolio released by several brokerages in the past two days include electricity, electronics, insurance and other fields.

in the insurance industry, china pacific insurance was recommended by ping an securities, huatai securities and other institutions; ping an of china was also recommended by shenwan hongyuan securities, kaiyuan securities and other institutions.

as for the future market, although the "good start" failed, we might as well observe for a few more days.

huaan securities pointed out that in terms of the general direction of allocation in september, considering that the domestic and foreign policy environment is expected to improve, a-shares will usher in positive changes, so the pressure for the market to fall back due to weakness will be significantly reduced. the allocation thinking can be transformed from a cautious mentality of risk aversion to a neutral mentality of actively seeking structural opportunities.

after the general decline since late may, the industry has undergone a major adjustment to a temporary low. in addition, the macroeconomic policies, industrial policies, and industrial events at home and abroad will occur in september, which also brings favorable conditions for active structural opportunities in the market. in terms of specific asset allocation, in the short term, catalytic events are still the most important clues for thematic opportunities. at the same time, directions that have been fully adjusted in the early stage and have rebounded in the economy or supported by policies are also expected to usher in opportunities for a temporary rebound; in the medium term, directions with a trend of improving the economy or certainty are still the greatest common denominator of institutional consensus.

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