news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

The photovoltaic reshuffle depends on silicon materials.

The reshuffle of silicon materials will depend on how many of the giants admit defeat and exit. But the current situation is that silicon material companies are still fighting to the death and are stuck in a stalemate.

Leading companies are continuously increasing their market share and accelerating industry reshuffle through full production and mergers and acquisitions.

The front-line troops, under heavy pressure, are only half dead, such as Xinte Energy, Oriental Hope, etc., they have stopped production for maintenance and are waiting for dawn.

Most of the new players in the silicon material industry are dead or at least disabled. They are trying their best to survive by hiding in a corner, hoping that they will not be the last one to fall.

Among the new silicon material players that Tongwei and others hope to keep out, there are two most ruthless ones, one is Hesheng Silicon Industry and the other is Qiya Silicon Industry.

These two cross-border people have many common characteristics:

• All in Xinjiang, the cost of electricity is only 0.3 yuan per kilowatt-hour, and some are even lower - it is said that Asia Silicon Industry, like East Hope, has built its own power plant, and the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour is only 0.25 yuan;

• They are all real and down-to-earth, no nonsense, and their planned production capacity is very large. Hesheng is 400,000 tons, and Qiya is 450,000 tons. The latter plans to invest 32 billion yuan, and after completion, it will be second only to the current Tongwei (605,000 tons) and Xinxing (425,000 tons).

• They are all in it from top to bottom - from the upstream quartz sand mines to industrial silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, and even power stations. They go all the way and do true vertical integration.

• They also have one thing in common, which is the same situation. As soon as they went into production, they faced this round of severe industry cycle tests.

There are also differences between the two. Hosun Silicon comes from industrial silicon, which has an overwhelming advantage, while Xinjiang Qiya Silicon comes from electrolytic aluminum. The actual controller Tong Wenqi and his Sichuan fellow, Liu Yongxing of East Hope, have almost the same development path.

Xinjiang Qiya Silicon Industry crossed over from the electrolytic aluminum industry and started with 450,000 tons. Now 100,000 tons have been put into production and 100,000 tons are under construction. The integrated layout of silicon materials starts from the upstream quartz mine.

Qiya is not limited to silicon materials, but also plans to produce photovoltaic silicon wafers. At the same time, it has planned 20GW each in Sichuan and Guizhou, with a total production capacity of 40GW. The volume of silicon wafers alone is equivalent to that of a medium-sized silicon wafer listed company.

Qiya also expanded its power stations downstream, winning a 3GW ultra-large-scale new energy power station project. Even the five major and six small companies would be envious of such a large-scale wind and solar power project.

In addition, it has also launched the world's largest coal-to-methanol project, and even Ningxia's richest man and China's No. 1 coal boss Dang Yanbao has to pay homage to it...

In the industrial silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, wind and solar power stations, and coal chemical industries and fields where powerful companies gather, why can Qiya Group go all in without taking a step-by-step approach?

How much money does the Qiya Group have? Where does the confidence, faith and resources come from to invest tens of billions of dollars in new energy?

01 An investment of 32 billion yuan, trying to break the pattern of two superpowers and many strong countries?

Source: Baichuan Yingfu, Huaan Securities

It is said that Asia Silicon Industry has not stopped production for maintenance.

According to an insider from Xinjiang's polysilicon industry, Qiya Silicon's first phase production capacity is 100,000 tons, of which 25,000 tons have been put into operation, and two cold hydrogenation lines have been opened. In August this year, Qiya's polysilicon production target is 3,000 tons, and next month it will increase production to 4,500 tons. Of course, in the tide of layoffs in the industry, Qiya is also cutting jobs.

If the monthly output of 4,500 tons is achieved, it is estimated that it will rank among the top five polysilicon production companies, second only to Tongwei, GCL, Daquan and other companies.

Xinjiang Qiya Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. was established in 2022 and is 100% controlled by Qiya Group Co., Ltd. In September 2022, Qiya signed a 200,000-ton high-purity polysilicon project agreement with Xinjiang Zhundong Economic and Technological Development Zone, officially entering the silicon material field.

On November 30, 2023, the first phase of Qiya's 100,000-ton high-purity silicon project was put into production. At that time, Xinjiang Daily reported: The project covers an area of ​​about 1,000 acres and has an investment of over 9 billion yuan.

For silicon material leading enterprises, the investment cost of Siemens polysilicon production capacity is about 800 million yuan per 10,000 tons, while Tongwei only needs 500 million yuan. For a cross-border player like Qiya, a total investment of 9 billion yuan for 100,000 tons of production capacity is not very good, but it is also a reasonable level.

However, Qiya's luck was too bad. When Qiya's polysilicon was put into production, the price of silicon materials fell. Generally speaking, the newly put into production silicon material production capacity needs to go through a 6-month ramp-up process. During the ramp-up process, the quality of silicon materials is unstable and the selling price is lower.

Considering the time when Qiya's 100,000 tons of silicon materials were put into production and the price of silicon materials, it can be judged that Qiya's silicon materials were most likely not profitable and it suffered losses as soon as it entered the market.

According to the official website of Qiya, "The second phase of the 150,000-ton annual high-purity silicon project will start construction in August 2023 and is expected to be put into production in 2025 (previously planned to be put into production in October this year)."

The polysilicon production capacity of more than 200,000 tons is not the entire layout of its sub-silicon-based industry.

(1) Qiya’s official website shows that the Qiya high-purity silicon project is located in Wucaiwan Industrial Park, Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang, covering an area of ​​about 5,000 acres, with a total investment of RMB 32 billion.

(2) The total annual production capacity of high-purity silicon is 450,000 tons.

(3) Wucaiwan Industrial Park also has a 400,000 ton metallic silicon project with a sub-metallic silicon annual output. The first phase of the 100,000 ton metallic silicon project will start construction in March 2023 and is expected to be put into production in August 2024.

Theoretically, using its own silicon powder to produce polysilicon will result in lower silicon material costs. At the beginning of this year, when the market price of industrial silicon was around 15,000 yuan per ton, Qiya's industrial silicon powder cost was 11,000 yuan.

(4) According to the Altay Regional Natural Resources Bureau, in January 2024, 12.6193 million tons of natural quartz sand mine (particle size ≥ 30 mm) in Tumande IV District, Altay City was sold for RMB 690 million, with an average unit price of RMB 54.68 per ton, and was won by Xinjiang Qiya Mining Co., Ltd.

It can be said that its silicon material layout runs from quartz sand mines to polysilicon, and it has chosen an integrated strategy, which may be one of its major advantages.

According to the planned production capacity, its polysilicon production capacity is 450,000 tons, only behind Tongwei and GCL. It will break the current silicon material pattern of two super and many strong.

Of course, there is also Geely. Li Shufu once announced a long-term plan for 500,000 tons of polysilicon production capacity, but since it uses physical methods, it is questionable whether it can adapt to the current n-type technology.

02 Still want to produce 40GW of silicon wafers?

The polysilicon industry started losing money only after Qiya's 100,000-ton silicon material project went into production. However, the industry was already losing money before Qiya's silicon wafer project even went into production.

(1) In December 2023, the official website of the Kaili Municipal Government of Qiandongnan Prefecture, Guizhou Province reported: "The People's Government of Kaili City signed an investment agreement with its Asia Group Co., Ltd. for 20GW monocrystalline silicon rods, 20GW photovoltaic wafers, 500,000 tons of recycled aluminum, and 300,000 tons of aluminum processing projects."

(2) On July 1 this year, the Qiya official Weibo account published an article titled "Qiya Group's Chengdu headquarters is located in Tianfu New District to transform and upgrade and cultivate new quality productivity."

It mentioned that "regarding the purpose of establishing the group's headquarters in Chengdu, Tong Wenqi, chairman of Qiya Group, revealed that the company plans to invest 10 billion yuan in the next two to three years to establish 20GW of photovoltaic slicing and assembly business in Chengdu." The article did not specify what "assembly" refers to.

The 40GW silicon wafer business in Guizhou and Sichuan is also a very big goal, which most companies dare not even promise.

Let's use data comparison to explain what 40GW of silicon wafer production capacity means:

Industry leader TCL Zhonghuan's silicon crystal production capacity will reach 183GW by the end of 2023;

Hongyuan Green Energy, which has been aggressive in expanding production and is known as a silicon wafer workhorse, will only have a silicon wafer production capacity of 35GW in 2023;

However, Qiya Group has only signed a contract with the local government and has no clear plan for the timetable for the silicon wafer production capacity to be put into operation. It is still unknown when the investment will be made and in what form.

The overcapacity of silicon wafer production is closely related to the silicon material link. There is no sign of recovery in the silicon wafer market. Industry insiders generally believe that the reshuffle of the silicon wafer link may take the longest time among the four links.

However, the news that Qiya was going into silicon wafers sent shockwaves through the silicon wafer industry, which was already booming.

03 Where does the 3GW wind and solar power station come from?

Nowadays, it is a bit unreasonable to engage in photovoltaic manufacturing without asking the local government for some wind and solar quotas. Wind power and photovoltaic quotas are also a powerful tool for local governments to attract investment.

Qiya Group, which has entered the photovoltaic manufacturing industry, naturally has a keen interest in power stations, and its first project is a super project - 3GW.

According to the company's official website: "The Qiya Group's new energy project started construction on June 22, 2024. It is located in Muli County, Changji Prefecture, Xinjiang, covers a total area of ​​10 square kilometers, with a total investment of 14 billion yuan. It is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2026. The project consists of 2.6 million kilowatts of wind power and 400,000 kilowatts of photovoltaic power generation, with a total installed capacity of 3 million kilowatts (1GW=1 million KW)."

Muli County is located at the northern foot of the Tianshan Mountains and the southeastern edge of the Junggar Basin. It is rich in scenic and solar resources. It has five wind power planning areas, including Forty Wells, Laojun Temple, and Dashitou. The total planned wind power area is about 4,200 square kilometers, and the total planned photovoltaic area area is about 1,800 square kilometers.

Qiya's project is not only very large, but also very scarce. Let's still use a set of data comparison to illustrate:

(1) TBEA, a Xinjiang local enterprise and new energy giant, mentioned in its 2023 annual report: “The installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic construction projects is about 2.19GW.”

(2) China Three Gorges Energy, a central enterprise whose main business is new energy power stations, will have a grid-connected installed capacity of 40,044,400 kW in 2023, with an additional grid-connected installed capacity of 13,535,600 kW during the reporting period.

(3) The pilot project of the Kubuqi “Shagohuang” base, a high-quality project of Three Gorges Energy, has a capacity of 1 million kilowatts; the second and third phases of the Three Gorges Ulanqab new generation grid-friendly green power station demonstration project have a total capacity of 1.5 million kilowatts.

It can be seen from this that for a large project like Qiya with a "total installed capacity of 3 million kilowatts", even if there are five large and six small ones, there is rarely a chance to win it in one go.

Previously, there was no information proving that Qiya Group had any rich experience in new energy power stations. So, why was Qiya Group able to win such a large project?

04 Crushing Baofeng Energy, the world's largest coal-based methanol monomer project?

On May 27, 2024, the 6 million tons/year coal-based methanol project of Xinjiang Qiya New Materials Co., Ltd. in Changji Prefecture was approved by the Development and Reform Commission of the Xinjiang Autonomous Region.

The total investment of the project is 28.7 billion yuan, and a 6 million tons/year coal-to-methanol project will be built. The project is located in the Jiangjunmiao Industrial Park in the Zhundong Economic and Technological Development Zone in Xinjiang, with an annual coal conversion capacity of 12 million tons.

Tong Wenqi, chairman of Xinjiang Qiya Group, said that the coal-based methanol project with an annual output of 6 million tons and a total investment of nearly 30 billion yuan signed this time is the world's largest coal-based methanol monomer project.

This project uses all domestically produced equipment, which is a national first. The equipment costs 10% less than imported equipment. The emission standards are also 10% lower than domestic standards, while the benefits are increased by 15%.

In addition, since the raw material needed for methanol is coal, and relying on the coal resource advantages of the Jungar Development Zone, coal is used as raw material and refined methanol is produced through multiple processes such as gasification, transformation, purification, methanol synthesis, and methanol distillation. Therefore, the Jungar Development Zone has become a must-have place for this project.

It is understood that the construction content of this world's largest coal-based methanol project with an annual output of 6 million tons includes air separation, coal gasification, shifting, desulfurization and decarbonization, refrigeration, methanol synthesis, methanol distillation, water electrolysis hydrogen production, sulfur recovery and other devices. The construction period will last for 4 years and is expected to be completed in October 2027.

Coal chemical industry includes coal-to-oil, coal-to-gas, coal-to-methanol and olefins, coal-based new materials, etc. It is a completely different industry from new energy and electrolytic aluminum.

Previously, there was no information proving that Qiya Group had rich practical experience in the coal chemical industry. The news also mentioned that this project means that Qiya Group has successfully entered the modern coal chemical industry.

So, why can Qiya Group directly manage a 6 million ton coal-based methanol project? Projects of this scale are difficult for listed companies and coal chemical giant Baofeng Energy to carry out.

However, the project was launched on June 16 this year.

05 Tong Wenqi's Strength

The total investment of the above four projects is nearly 100 billion yuan. What is the background of Qiya Group that can draw such a blueprint and launch these four projects at the same time?

Because it is a private company, Qiya Group and its actual controller Tong Wenqi are not well known to the outside world. Here are a few pieces of information that can give us a glimpse of the situation.

(1) Tong Wenqi was born in August 1956 into a poor family in Fuxi Town, Emeishan City.

He joined the Emeishan Metal Smelter in 1989 and served as technician, workshop director, deputy director and other positions. In 1995, he became the factory director and began to adjust the product structure, focusing on the electrolytic aluminum field. In 2023, it was reorganized into Sichuan Qiya Aluminum Group Co., Ltd.

It can be said that Tong Wenqi is a creative person of the first generation.

(2) The current Qiya Group Co., Ltd. (formerly known as Sichuan Qiya Aluminum Group Co., Ltd.) was established in 2003. Sichuan Maitexin Enterprise Management Co., Ltd. and Tong Wenqi hold 98.1818% and 1.8182% of the shares respectively. Sichuan Maitexin Enterprise Management Co., Ltd. is 100% owned by Tong Wenqi.

Therefore, Qiya Group Co., Ltd. is 100% owned by Tong Wenqi. Considering the scale of Qiya Group, such a concentrated shareholding structure is relatively rare.

He also tends to invest 100% in overseas enterprises.

All these indicate that the Asia Group did not raise funds through the equity market or capital market, and the funds needed for its operations were basically generated endogenously and through indirect financing tools such as banks.

From Yancha; Overseas investment of Qiya Group Co., Ltd.; No statistics on deregistered enterprises

(3) Actual controller Tong Wenqi ranks 1372nd on the Hurun Rich List 2023 with a fortune of RMB 6 billion.

Tong Wenqi has strength and financial resources, but he is far inferior to his two fellow countrymen who are both engaged in polysilicon: Tongwei Liu Hanyuan and East Hope Liu Yongxing. Now he plans to leverage hundreds of billions of investment, which is not easy.

(4) The official website shows that Qiya Group was founded in 1990. The group's total assets have exceeded 60 billion yuan, with more than 7,000 employees. Its industrial layout spans Sichuan, Xinjiang, Guizhou, Yunnan and other regions, weaving a wide-ranging and closely connected business network.

At the end of 2023, the number of employees of Tongwei Co., Ltd. was 56,400, Longi was 75,100, and Baofeng Energy was 18,700.

So, what capabilities do you think the Qiya Group has that can help it enter the fields of silicon materials, silicon wafers, power stations, and coal chemical industry at the same time, and challenge leading companies in several different industries?

The background of electrolytic aluminum industry helps him understand the silicon material industry, which is also in the chemical industry; East Hope and Qinghai Lihao both have background in electrolytic aluminum industry; as entrepreneurs from Sichuan, Liu Hanyuan of Tongwei Co., Ltd. and Liu Yongxing of East Hope may have a deeper understanding of silicon material. However, he has never personally tried it before, and now he dares to invest tens of billions of yuan, which cannot be achieved by courage alone.

Qiya Group Co., Ltd. had a net asset of 4.429 billion yuan and a net profit of 573 million yuan in 2017. In recent years, the electrolytic aluminum industry is estimated to be difficult to make money compared with the central enterprise Three Gorges Energy, private enterprise stars Tongwei, Oriental Hope, and Longi Green Energy.

Moreover, the capital chain of the Qiya Group was once particularly tight, and it is still the case now.

In 2017, Qiya issued corporate bonds, during which it disclosed some of the company's financial data and operating conditions.

In April 2017, the 800,000-ton electrolytic aluminum capacity under construction by Sichuan Qiya Aluminum Group was announced by the People's Government of Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang as illegally built production capacity (based on the "Announcement on Stopping Illegal Construction of Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity" issued by the People's Government of Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture on April 14, 2017).

On April 18, 2017, according to the “United Credit Rating Company’s announcement on including Sichuan Qiya Aluminum Group’s long-term credit rating and “17 Qiya 01” and “17 Qiya 02” credit ratings in the credit rating watch list”, Sichuan Qiya Aluminum Group was included in the credit rating watch list.

In addition to the development of the aluminum industry, what other achievements has Qiya Group made in recent years that can enable Tong Wenqi to move forward on the road of new energy? So why do local governments such as Kaili City and Muli County believe that Qiya and Tong Wenqi can leverage tens of billions of large projects without any experience?

Public information shows that Sichuan Maitexin, the parent company of Qiya Group, has had multiple equity pledges this year.

In addition, recently, Xinjiang Qiya Aluminum and Electricity Co., Ltd., an important subsidiary of Qiya Group, was enforced by the People's Court of Xinghua City, Jiangsu Province due to a contract dispute of more than 9 million yuan. It is really hard to understand that a mere 9 million yuan could stump the richest man in Leshan.